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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    UKMET looks like it captures with the NS
  2. brooklynwx99
    that's the risk you'll have to take IMO. you need as amped as possible in mid-March even if you run the risk of a hugger
  3. brooklynwx99
    I agree... luckily that can be pretty easily remedied by a stronger PNA ridge allowing the NS to dig deeper or just random changes since we're still at Day 6. time is on our side here and the overall setup is quite explosive
  4. brooklynwx99
    a bit pessimistic considering such a dynamic system at day 6 lmao this has a lot of potential given the amount of energy being dumped into the trough but that's the tenor of the year, I suppose
  5. brooklynwx99
    yup, better PNA ridge
  6. brooklynwx99
    I agree, but with a setup that dynamic, I would roll the dice. almost always has to be a bomb to really get any appreciable snow in mid-March
  7. brooklynwx99
    high amplitude is an understatement. the Nina is dying
  8. brooklynwx99
    this is an absolute honker of a signal for this range
  9. brooklynwx99
    that evolution on the ECMWF is a nose hair from something much bigger. wouldn't take much at all... we need to see that ULL of the WC keep shifting W. if it shifts east next run, the changes at 12z could be erased. the whole setup is on a razor's edge
  10. brooklynwx99
    EPS is really interesting for early next week. vigorous S/W diving through the Lakes, SS vort out in front and the mean is sniffing out a phase. PNA ridge is also ideal. caution is advised due to the lack of true arctic cold, but this is dynamic as all hell
  11. brooklynwx99
    EPS is impressive for early next week. already seeing a phasing scenario and the PNA ridge out west is ideal. caution is advised with the lack of true arctic cold, but this looks good
  12. brooklynwx99
    I would not consider this unimpressive
  13. brooklynwx99
    pretty much every driver here is improved on the EPS: farther W ULL, stronger ridging upstream over the Rockies, stronger confluence and a deeper S/W
  14. brooklynwx99
    not so sure about that. seeing a moist wave ride along a pre-established boundary with cold air in place can work for you guys
  15. brooklynwx99
    trust me, I have seen seasons have one anomalous blocking spell to come away with nothing. but two??? that is pretty difficult to do. I'll take my chances through the 20th
  16. brooklynwx99
    yes, but get the NS to really dive south and you raise the ceiling. it's a risk I'm willing to take at this point in the season... go big or go home
  17. brooklynwx99
    the whole "no changes" shit is completely disingenuous. there have obviously been wholesale changes in the pattern. whether that leads to snow or not is a totally different story and is dependent on way more factors than simple longwave configuration
  18. brooklynwx99
    no changes?
  19. brooklynwx99
    the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well
  20. brooklynwx99
    the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well
  21. brooklynwx99
    I mean, it's not uncommon for a weaker, more progressive wave to establish a baroclinic zone / confluence for a larger, more cohesive follow-up that's pretty much what the EPS and CMC (and ENS) have trended towards
  22. brooklynwx99
    yeah, this is pretty striking from an ENS mean in the short to medium range. perhaps the Pacific is getting resolved in the way we want
  23. brooklynwx99
    the trend is the most important part here IMO, not the end result... the GFS and CMC have been moving towards the ECMWF for a while, hopefully they completely cave at the surface soon. the ENS will be very interesting
  24. brooklynwx99
    GFS making the same changes. awesome 12z suite so far
  25. brooklynwx99
    not true, the ENS show many members that have snow. just has to be wrapped up, which is certainly a possibility. the OP runs just haven't explicitly shown these scenarios yet
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