brooklynwx99

FWIW the ICON should be improved with the second wave. less initial stream interaction and a stronger vort

GEFS is more held back with the second wave. better looking 250mb jet too

if there was one place i’d want to see the GFS at this range, it would be here. still way too progressive

250mb jet is stronger and more favorably oriented compared to 12z

this is a nice look with the strong southern stream shortwave and confluence in place

storm cancel jk I would actually be worried about suppression rather than a cutter with the TPV in that spot

here she comes

GEFS is on the right track for the first wave. both colder and wetter

this is nice from the GEFS. better ridging showing up out west and lower heights initially. it'll be easier to snow from that first wave if the SE ridge is pressed a bit

the reason why this cuts is because of a late phase with a vort coming onto the WC. if this is a phantom vort or is just like 12-24 hours slower, this is a monster storm. I'll consider this a good run

finally, a legit antecedent airmass to work with

Oh Canada? edit: it does phase at the end, but this is still a very intriguing setup

THIS could do something, though. confluence rolling in with a much more potent wave than the GFS

the main thing is that we have a legit southern stream wave and very cold air to the north. almost a Nino-ish look with that wave. you can get serious overrunning that way with a thermal gradient that strong

the vort is less amplified and the TPV is farther S. both of these lead to a suppressed solution. I'd rather deal with that at this range than a cutter, though

you know, you did well with January, but I have no idea why you have to be so hyperbolic about warmth all the time you're allowed to say there is the potential for some snow along with legit cold over the next 10 days. you aren't going to keel over and die for doing it

yeah, this is a nice signature. more than cold enough. there's actually good ensemble agreement here... the GEFS and GEPS are both on board with this potential event precip doesn't look amazing, but this is due more to differences in timing more than anything at this point. precip could end up robust with a thermal gradient like that

GFS improved pretty dramatically at 06z, especially out west. a bit far too far S, but this is a major overrunning event for the MA verbatim hopefully it's not a blip. seems to be more in line with other guidance. this is our first legit shot IMO

March 2018 is another good example of a prolific -PNA/-NAO month for much of the northeast and northern MA. there was a NESIS storm that gave N MD more than 10"

a good recent example of a -PNA/-NAO that worked in the northern MA was in late Jan into mid Feb 2021. the NYC metro into NJ saw a historic blizzard and a few other storms, bringing them to 26" on the month. yes, it wasn't great for you guys, but again, that's a matter of luck IMO. if the confluence associated with that storm was a bit slower or farther S, it would have been you guys getting smoked this is honestly quite similar to the late Dec pattern this year. again, just goes to show how much of this is really just dependent on luck, especially the farther S you go. as variance increases, the more things need to line up correctly. this pattern could have easily produced a major snowstorm, but the devil was in the details. what can you do?

the pattern will have lots of cold air to the north and waves tracking along a boundary. legit arctic air in SE Canada and activity is all you can ask for. seeing the EC lit up with greens on the 5 day precip anomaly like that is nice could it go up in smoke? sure! even the best patterns do every now and then. but there’s also the possibility for a large overrunning event with the mood in here you’d think we’d be looking at a blowtorch when it’s far from the opposite

roads covered in Morristown

also, most setups fail in one way or another in the Mid-Atlantic up to NYC. that's why we average 15-30" a winter and not 40-60" like New England. most setups fail and just bring rain. snow is a relative rarity, especially in crappy years

that is an unrealistic expectation at this range

...they're OP runs. what's the issue here? there is going to be a lot of variance. as long as the signal remains on the ensembles, it's not a big deal