brooklynwx99

all told, that was a great EPS run. exactly what i wanted to see

there’s a pretty notable NW lean here. much, much improved from 06z

hmm. this looks quite nice

EPS is much improved from 06z at 500mb

honestly, I'm not too bummed about that given the synoptic improvements from 00z. the EPS will be interesting in half an hour or so if they make the same changes. there were already some pretty nice members at 06z

not going to lie, this looks very good. definitely more amped than the GFS

the ECMWF is even the strongest of the 3 major models with the S/W. the CMC is the weakest... I would imagine that the strength even at 60 makes a big difference. doubt it's as flat as the CMC at this range tho

trust me, everyone should understand that this is a low-probability event due to a lack of blocking and no arctic air and blah blah blah. but it's nice to have something to track regardless... this certainly bears some watching

this is probably the only time I will ever say something like that is possible. but yes, if you do have that strong of a closed low, dynamic cooling does occur. it's not voodoo or anything like this is a sounding from NC where the GFS drops 6-10". that's more than cold enough and that's in the Carolinas. cutoffs do really weird crap so yes, I would absolutely take my chances with a ULL like that. the amped solutions are what everyone should be rooting for, because there is a 0% chance with a washed out POS

that is a possibility, but the UKMET has been known to have absolutely horrific thermals. I would take my chances with a dynamic solution like this

significant uptick in precip across the board. there have got to be some good members in here

well, it turns out that the GEFS is actually improved from 06z. go figure

it generally is, but you'll never see that on a mean. I just like to see the trend towards blocking developing, especially when there are stratospheric impacts over the next week or so... makes it feel a little bit more secure since there'd be a particular reason for it

so much anger

it's not shredded, it's just south. even adjusting for ratios, that's still 6-8" of heavy, wet snow

the AO plot that is being posted is through the 20th or so. any impacts from the SSW, if it occurs, would be felt in March, so the tweet is a bit intellectually dishonest. but that's par for the course there if one is going to use model guidance, it should go out far enough, and the GEFS extended and Weeklies both show a -NAO favored, likely from the SPV disruption/split

yup, less progressive with the trailing wave

i know what you're saying, but this is a super dynamic evolution verbatim and would produce legit deform banding but yes, I agree, this would be tough to pull off. but certainly doable!

i think this would actually stick to everything verbatim. absolutely dumping at 32-33? yup what a wild evolution. I mean, it's certainly weird, but if it keeps showing up I can't totally throw it out. it's like a late March storm

if we're going to go on Twitter to get our ideas, might as well get them from someone who researches this stuff. Lee doesn't honk either, so it's striking seeing him use this kind of verbiage. SSWs are kind of all or nothing when they're that strong, but I'm fine with going for broke at this point

I think the main reason for that is the major SSW event that the weeklies are predicting. pretty much every member flips zonal winds negative, and some do for a prolonged period of time. this would be a serious reason to believe in a shake-up this is also getting to within a medium range timeframe for this kind of stuff... this isn't 2-3 weeks out as it's been all winter. the initial disruption occurs in a few days, and the strong dipole over Greenland is a classic way to get strong heat fluxes into the stratosphere. in other words, I don't believe that this is voodoo, so to speak. the pattern that's causing the house of cards to collapse is currently ongoing the mean has 10 m/s easterlies between the 13-17th... taking into account a lag of about three weeks, this takes us to the first week of March, which is when the Weeklies and extended GEFS both develop pretty legit blocking given the lead time. there's an actual 50/50 signal with a trough into Europe. both the AO and NAO flip solidly negative, which makes sense given an obliterated SPV it's also peculiar that blocking hasn't returned since the spell in December... almost invariably, blocking returns at some point in the winter after coming on that strong in December. I don't have the stats here, but the correlation between highly anomalous Dec blocking and returning blocking in Jan-Mar is very high either way, I'm honestly intrigued about March now, and I know that @40/70 Benchmark has been for a while, too. obviously, the standard caveats apply with the SSW stuff... the effects still need to couple to the troposphere, after all, but this is a legitimate pattern driver that can deliver some anomalous blocking. at least it's something to think about while the blinds are closed from like the 13th until the last week of the month. it's also worth noting that Feb 2018 also absolutely roasted before March happened

the GFS has a pretty exotic evolution... it amplifies the trailing energy to the point that it cuts off from the flow and crushes the MA. wouldn't say that this is impossible, but I obviously want to see other models see this kind of thing definitely caught me off guard though. was NOT expecting to see this

definitely an amplified look at 500mb on the GEFS... hopefully we can find a way to depress heights initially, otherwise it'll be difficult to get a good track out of this nevertheless, it is looking more likely that we can see a legit storm, so it's worth keeping an eye on

twitter

no blocking