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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    thanks for completely misunderstanding my point
  2. brooklynwx99
    just for the sake of argument, the ECMWF shows why 500mb ridges in the east along with a -EPO don't really portend a lack of wintry weather... the E US is actually under an anomalous 500mb ridge here, but there's enough HP to the north to lock in colder air and lead to a heavy snow event
  3. brooklynwx99
    just for the sake of argument, the ECMWF shows why 500mb ridges in the east along with a -EPO don't really portend a lack of wintry weather... the E US is actually under an anomalous 500mb ridge here, but there's enough HP to the north to lock in colder air and lead to a heavy snow event
  4. brooklynwx99
    this same exact trend has shown itself like three times already this winter in the D7-10 range with guidance underdoing the strength of the Pacific jet
  5. brooklynwx99
    yeah, not torching with the TPV in Canada and a stout -EPO. looks active with cold nearby. might have to eat a cutter to set up another wave, but it's active and i'll roll the dice on it even down here
  6. brooklynwx99
    WxBell is 91-20 climo and TT is 81-10 climo, hence the discrepancy
  7. brooklynwx99
    the equatorward shift in the jet is really helping the -EPO
  8. brooklynwx99
    the equatorward shift in the jet is really helping the -EPO
  9. brooklynwx99
    I always liked 13-14 as an analog... just didn't have the stomach to predict what looks to be a BN winter. kinda needed to see it with my own eyes after the last few years
  10. brooklynwx99
    i don't think any of the long range ensembles had much of the central and eastern CONUS with far BN temps thus far this winter, especially not the Southeast
  11. brooklynwx99
    posted this elsewhere. extended guidance has done such a bad job with the Pacific jet all winter
  12. brooklynwx99
    seems like we get into some solid -EPO once into the second week of the month. guidance has been underdoing the Pacific jet as well, so it wouldn't be surprising to see an improvement in the PNA as we move forward. overall, it at least looks more active with lots of cold air in Canada... EPS looks pretty nice today after the 7-8th or so
  13. brooklynwx99
    lol how predictable
  14. brooklynwx99
    so predictable. this is like the third time this has happened this winter
  15. brooklynwx99
    extended guidance underdoing the Pacific jet again
  16. brooklynwx99
    to be fair, this winter was supposed to be another warm one and that has busted tremendously. even I called for a warm year and it's been anything but. wouldn't be shocked if the upcoming warm spell just ended up near normal
  17. brooklynwx99
    lmao
  18. brooklynwx99
    lmao
  19. brooklynwx99
    wouldn't be shocking if it popped up again in March, but blocking is a wildcard. I wasn't expecting it to be nearly as blocky as it has been so far this year. if you told me that the Mid-Atlantic and South would do the best through late Jan I would have laughed
  20. brooklynwx99
    no, it isn't, though I could see a cutter dragging down cold air nearby and establishing a baroclinic zone farther south for a second wave to take advantage of. it's going to be quite changeable but will present chances... doubt it's persistently cold or warm
  21. brooklynwx99
    you are never going to get a warm pattern with the TPV on this side of the globe and -EPO. not happening
  22. brooklynwx99
    notice the trend for a stronger Pacific jet as we move forward in time, which has been common this year... this helps push the Aleutian ridging closer to AK, allowing the trough in the Rockies to push east a bit more. would be nice to see this keep going
  23. brooklynwx99
    notice the trend for a stronger Pacific jet as we move forward in time, which has been common this year... this helps push the Aleutian ridging closer to AK, allowing the trough in the Rockies to push east a bit more. would be nice to see this keep going
  24. brooklynwx99
  25. brooklynwx99
    meh, that AK trough is from a strong -WPO. it's just modified Arctic air, not nearly the same as a Pacific blowtorch. the pattern moderates but it never really gets all that warm. weird looking, though
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