brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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this will do also that’s also the whole thing about Canada torching. the +20F air up there is like -4F here
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personally, I was expecting the GFS and CMC to hold serve and for the ECMWF to get way flatter. this morning surprised me
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if the ECMWF holds and everything remains like this at 00z, then probably. that trend in the CMC and GFS is pretty sharp
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GEPS made a significant shift in the right direction
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you’re not. pretty distinct trend here
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that NS vort is becoming more and more interesting
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there has been a pretty well defined trend to sharpen the trailing NS vort. could make things interesting if it crosses the tipping point and cuts off
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there has been a pretty well defined trend to sharpen the trailing NS vort. could make things interesting if it crosses the tipping point and cuts off
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the EPS actually did have a closed ULL over the Delmarva at 06z
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also the ICON goes absolutely ballistic over you guys. if the NS vort really is that strong then it's possible but there's a big grain of salt right now
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overall I think the main takeaway is that it is so much easier to get a favorable pattern than it is during a Nina, lemme tell you
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it's probably going to be that way, but it'll get there
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yeah, weeklies are loaded. Arctic looks great
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GEFS and GEPS are both seeing the changes in the Pacific. seems like it's gaining traction
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I'm not sure. I think I might have heard something about that but someone probably knows a lot more than me about that stuff
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if you roll that out, you get a KU and then the 50/50 leads to a -NAO block. total 180 from the garbage we were seeing only a few days ago
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yeah the wave breaking that's showing up in the Pacific could be a game changer. want to see other ENS and suites bite on it, but the OP GFS has been very consistent on it over the last couple of days it makes sense. the weak SPV leaves the pattern more prone to blocking
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look over AK. goes from progressive flow to a massive block
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wavebreaks are literal hell for LR ENS guidance so it makes sense that it might be getting sniffed out by OP runs. we shall see, but there is reason for optimism
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the reason why I say a trillion is because it leads to a legit storm forming at the end of the run. this is way more fun than the blowtorch that was getting spit out a few days ago
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this is about as big of a positive change in the Pacific pattern as you can see, compared from a couple days ago. really want to see this idea gain some traction
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this is about as big of a positive change in the Pacific pattern as you can see, compared from a couple days ago. really want to see this idea gain some traction
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pretty wild wavebreaking showing up on the OP runs now... this is a trillion times better than what was advertised for this time period a few days ago
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pretty wild wavebreaking showing up on the OP runs now... this is a trillion times better than what was advertised for this time period a few days ago
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they are definitely better than climo. not a guarantee by any means, but still a better than normal shot for this early. and you're correct, a weak SPV is still a good thing to have. however, a SSW can give you those truly anomalous retrograding -NAO blocks. I am personally rooting for one
