brooklynwx99

favorable after NYE? probably like 6 or 7/10. would probably last through mid-month before a relaxation as the MJO wave moving through the more favorable phases craps out. even if it's not super favorable, which is possible if the jet remains on steroids for some reason (nothing shows this) I highly doubt it'll be as crappy as the pattern now. the jet shouldn't be as strong it's not a lock or anything but I think that once the jet relaxes, which it will, heights recover into AK and we get a much better source region

also, the timeframe before Christmas was never supposed to look good. not sure where that expectation even came from. maybe it did a couple of weeks ago but that's old news at this point. it's been Christmas into NYE for the transition into a more favorable pattern and that is on track

you would put more stock in a day 10 OP than a day 10-15 ensemble mean? why? that's like putting more faith in a random member than the mean. that won't work

they didn't. they actually look better for the end of the month

have we gone towards looking at shitty OP runs to cancel winter now? and ignoring the good ones? so weird

the GEPS and EPS put the GEFS to shame. really nice seeing heights in AK flip positive, giving us our all-important -EPO. no more Pacific air issues EPS is the best looking in the Atlantic, though. BN heights over Nova Scotia and AN heights nosing into Greenland

i also love seeing the split flow and Pacific wave breaking lead to +PNA. that’s a recipe for big storms

i expect another significant blocking spell at some point. probably late in the winter. i’d be surprised if there wasn’t another one

you don’t really need deep negative anomalies to get a big storm or two. just needs to be cold enough

makes sense given the retrogression of the AK trough as the +EAMT loses effect

GEPS looks pretty great. hopefully we can get a wavebreak to move that ridge closer to Greenland but this is still more than enough. heights over AK have recovered and colder than average air has filtered in alongside AN precip makes sense given the retrogression of the AK trough as the +EAMT loses effect

GEPS looks pretty great. hopefully we can get a wavebreak to move that ridge closer to Greenland but this is still more than enough. heights over AK have recovered and colder than average air has filtered in alongside AN precip

finally no more Niña BS either… MJO is now moving into typical dateline-western IO phases

to be fair, that is the 500mb change run-by-run. this is the actual 500mb pattern on the EPS and GEFS… still quite nice and getting towards something very good

yeah the ENS are encouraging. seeing heights over AK recover as the trough retrogrades and also seeing hints of AN heights build into Hudson Bay

i think it’s one of those constructive/destructive interference variables. low snow cover constructively interferes with warm weather and vice versa

gotta like where we’re heading

like seeing the AK heights recover too. that’s big. we want to see more of these HL changes

to be fair, NA snow cover was on the high side for a good portion of last winter, especially early, and it meant next to nothing

yeah if it’s mid-Jan and we’re still staring at a torch for the next 10 days, i will be worried, but there are zero signs of that happening

the “no changes” stuff is like easily one of the most annoying things ever. the goalposts can be moved forever since they’re never established to begin with changes in snowfall? height anomalies? the overall pattern? sun angle? geese population? can literally be anything

and? this is later in the run as the pattern progresses

late month is interesting. just for the sake of demonstration, I will use the 06z GFS OP from this morning we get a strong storm that’s in a marginal airmass that’s just a bit too warm for snow. however, given the weak SPV, we get in-situ -NAO blocking to form as a result, setting up a 50/50 ULL. on the Pacific side, the AK trough continues to retrograde, allowing for the PNA to spike. we end up getting a potent S/W that’s about to get trapped under the developing block with cold in place although this is an OP run, it does show a totally reasonable pattern progression that can get us from a torch to something favorable in about 7-10 days

no changes!

like i know it’s an OP run, but that’s a gorgeous pattern progression and the ENS are feeling it too. certainly something you wouldn’t complain about