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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    i agree. i also think that seasonal models underdo cold anomalies in areas where there is a persistent trough. even last year, which was warm as hell, was very cold in the western US, and seasonals missed it even though they got the mean 500mb pattern pretty much correct
  2. brooklynwx99
    i think that we haven't seen a true Nino in 8 years and people are forgetting how they function. crappy starts to the season are the status quo and there is a lot of hand wringing for no particular reason. I don't expect to see any significant La Nina influence at all once we get into January and especially February... if this winter is going to fail, it would be due to an overwhelming GoA low, not some Aleutian ridge dropping a deep trough over the western US
  3. brooklynwx99
    why can’t you just have a reasonable take without going balls to the wall? i agree that Dec is likely +1-3, but why not just say that instead
  4. brooklynwx99
    what’s your point? there are categories between super and weak. they’re called moderate and strong! knowledge is power
  5. brooklynwx99
    lmao
  6. brooklynwx99
    that is literally the only reason
  7. brooklynwx99
    there is some lingering forcing in the western IO that may be influencing things. either way, this pattern still looks quite similar to El Ninos in the past with the +EPO and +NAO
  8. brooklynwx99
    my point is that what's happening in November isn't representative of the deep winter pattern December is likely going to be crappy and meltdowns will begin, I'm pretty sure of it. same shit happened in 2015 when everyone was crying before Boston got 100" in 6 weeks
  9. brooklynwx99
    the +EPO/+NAO pattern on the EPS matches up with most mod-strong Ninos... the hand wringing about this being the winter pattern by some is pretty ridiculous as Nov/Dec are usually quite warm here
  10. brooklynwx99
    base period is 1993-2016
  11. brooklynwx99
    this looks quite similar to phase 1 forcing that you'd see in Ninos, though. also looks close to typical Ninos with the +EPO and +NAO. i don't see a correlation with Ninas here
  12. brooklynwx99
    I'm just asking because if he means one daily reading at +2.01C is super, then yes, this can certainly become super. everyone seems to have their own definition these days
  13. brooklynwx99
    that just does not look like an overwhelming EP super Nino response. wonder why
  14. brooklynwx99
    yeah it's basically Feb 2010 all over again. makes sense given what's been talked about ad nauseam in this thread
  15. brooklynwx99
    by super, do you mean three consecutive trimonthly periods that average +2.0C or greater? just to be clear
  16. brooklynwx99
    i know people will jump on this because it's JB, but this is all pretty reasonable honestly
  17. brooklynwx99
    come on dude. that is a cold, stormy 500mb pattern
  18. brooklynwx99
    who cares? Nino Decembers usually suck so this isn’t some grand insight like you think it is
  19. brooklynwx99
    no, that’s the magic of it. that way he can say he was right if it does end up snowy
  20. brooklynwx99
    i’ll take this 10/10 times
  21. brooklynwx99
    yeah this is better in that regard for Jan. Feb is about the same but the trough in the east is deeper and there’s actually an Aleutian low
  22. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF seasonal is pretty great for Jan/Feb
  23. brooklynwx99
    that stuff is going to wobble around from day to day. there is still a considerable a weakening trend once we enter December
  24. brooklynwx99
    i mean, this is what last year’s CanSIPS at the same time showed for last DJF. like come on, this year is night and day
  25. brooklynwx99
    i mean hell, notice how he didn’t post the highly favorable Feb and Mar plots wonder why
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