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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    It looks strange on Pivotal - not sure what to make of that
  2. NorthArlington101
    your AI EURO friend has something along those lines for the 5th - keeps going more amped/not as great for our subforum, though
  3. NorthArlington101
  4. NorthArlington101
    This happens every year we get a good pattern... the smartest posters (not me) identify the good pattern 2-3 weeks early. one week later, the dumber posters (this is me) panic because it hasn't snowed yet it doesn't actually snow this is optional - it could actually snow this time
  5. NorthArlington101
    https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=pwat
  6. NorthArlington101
    the distribution is great, as @Eskimo Joenoted sniping me with that tweet. But as others have mentioned, the ceiling outcomes are lacking, which troubles some more than others. I love stacking small/medium events... the median being sorta close to the mean excites me. hey, you were the one who told me to check!
  7. NorthArlington101
    honestly it's nothing too special - but we'd take. Well, you all would. I'll be on vacay rage ignoring the weather. it is good seeing the median get higher, though.
  8. NorthArlington101
    I see 6/7th, 8/9th, and then cold/drier for the end of the run but door still open. Weekies keep the possibilities open throughout Jan with the snow mean for weeks 3/4 being respectable. The 4th also trended a hair better.
  9. NorthArlington101
    GEFS and GEPS are interesting though hardly slam dunks for the Jan 5-7th window. A bit of a suppression signal on the means - smarter people will probably post better analysis. GEPS pretty aggressive - GEFS less so. GEPS snow mean for Jan 5-12th:
  10. NorthArlington101
    psu would rather a snowless winter than getting nickled and dimed. Maybe he'd be okay with getting quartered and half-dollared
  11. NorthArlington101
    Don't quite fully succeed on Jan. 6 but would only take reasonable adjustments for this range. This is before a flip to rain with a less-than-ideal transfer for us. Primary goes from TN -> OH instead of TN -> offshore.
  12. NorthArlington101
    12z EURO is closer on Jan. 4, but still a ways to go to have that trend our way. Might be teeing up the @HeisyJan. 6 storm, though
  13. NorthArlington101
    The reason I know things are at least a little dire is we’ve dedicated a page of our long-range thread to that wheel, lol.
  14. NorthArlington101
    I’ve been (anecdotally) unimpressed but others, including folks I respect (e.g., Matt Lanza) have blogged about use cases where anecdotally it does very very well. It’s lost some recent fights with its parent locally… but it scores well and I personally think this is one of the stronger AI use-cases.
  15. NorthArlington101
    def agree that the track isn't ideal - just saying it is enough verbatim. Better transfer and it's much more significant, but I'd take the 3-5"er I think it shows and happily board my a flight to my tropical destination 2 days later. 850s surface
  16. NorthArlington101
    It’s definitely wintry precip on that run looking at thermals. Guess it’s plausible it flips to ice since I can’t see every layer on WxBel
  17. NorthArlington101
    EPS still says shut the door til 1/6. 1/6 has a fairly quality signal but not a lot of immediate support for the 1/9 idea. Looks cold and fairly dry at long long range.
  18. NorthArlington101
    No - that's a good storm for this area. @donsutherland1did his whole analysis - we don't get a ~6" storm in January often. Would be bummed to miss this one, but not bummed enough to not vacation. Starting to get pretty down about the chances of anything before Jan 7. May just have to take my lumps.
  19. NorthArlington101
    GFS for 1/9
  20. NorthArlington101
    ... always tough when the best posters go quiet
  21. NorthArlington101
    yeah it's like 37 when it's snowing - this might be a generous read
  22. NorthArlington101
    I'm only interested in drought-busting snows, sorry.
  23. NorthArlington101
    Really wish the EPS would show any precip around for the 3rd-5th window but it's dry as a bone... too bad since the GFS keeps trying to show a hit somewhere in the subforum in that period.
  24. NorthArlington101
    GFS tries on Jan 2 but it’s really too warm at the surface… need to push that storm back a few days or at least overnight.
  25. NorthArlington101
    Everything looks fantastic on the ens for an active period… clear we’ve got a couple windows. All we need is the snow median on the ens to start ticking up
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