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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    I think it will work, that’s why I’m so grumpy! I don’t need to go into the theoretical discussion over the benefits of mean vs. median again, the median is fairly strong too — around 3” for the whole period. I was excited to see the Jan 6. event appear on the 24hr median - first time the EPS has had something like this at range all year. It’s quite modest, as any 24hr median will be at range, but I view median as “this is the bar.” My bar for Jan. 6 is increasingly that winter weather will happen.
  2. NorthArlington101
    EPS really quite surprised for the 8th-10th shot. Won’t speak to the H5 but it’s a notable step back from 00z. Maybe a hair better for the 5th-6th
  3. NorthArlington101
    GEFS looks better for the 7th-8th then precious runs, btw. I’d still be worrying about suppression but the signal is much better.
  4. NorthArlington101
    pretty much - i think it's gonna suppress the 9th/10th into the GoM. Isn't even that cold locally either, dc gets to 32 some of the days
  5. NorthArlington101
    GEPS still like Jan 3-4 a bit. Still 140 hours out somehow
  6. NorthArlington101
    EURO suppresses the Jan 5-6 storm.
  7. NorthArlington101
    idk - this looks like a nice spot to be in. Need a little colder
  8. NorthArlington101
    storm after the storm after the storm, see you Jan. 15
  9. NorthArlington101
    It’s really close on Dec. 7… in the range you just said you wanted it to be on the GFS!
  10. NorthArlington101
    NYD looks fine - maybe some snow TV in the PA/OH part of the journey? Won’t pretend I can look at a map of Wyoming and predict mountain snow but the drive mostly looks chilly with some snow showers plausible
  11. NorthArlington101
    the SC/NC/GA mets have been very excited about this pattern. Would love this to work for all parties!
  12. NorthArlington101
    idk if that bodes well for the 8-9th either - don’t you sorta need the 5-6 storm to cut?
  13. NorthArlington101
    I know very few people are interested in this period given the potential shown elsewhere but GEPS received the Jan. 4 threat last night and even the OPs have been showing something on that date on recent runs. Idk how this impacts downstream for the later, more HECS-y opportunities.
  14. NorthArlington101
    Kuchera always lies but given that is falling when temps are like 10F you could probably 1.5x those results too.
  15. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, I don’t think enough was made of that run last night. During the daytime that would’ve have garnered enough posts to shut this forum down. Ultimate cold smoke blizzard run just happened overnight.
  16. NorthArlington101
    Widespread 8-12”. We take. Maybe I can fly out a day late?
  17. NorthArlington101
    It’s a nice, long-duration event. DC filtering with mix line at 246 while western spots do well
  18. NorthArlington101
    GFS gonna spit out a very different solution for the storm on the 6th. Def not an amped cutter
  19. NorthArlington101
    I spend too many hours tracking each winter to be content with missing a HECS. I missed Jan. 2022 and Dec. 2018, so it’s been pretty much been since 2016 since I’ve seen a real storm. I’m not so much hoping folks get skunked as I am that it happens before or after my vacation. We can delay the pattern a week or two. Last I’ll post about this tho - no need to deb on the mood.
  20. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, I’m being a jerk. It’s 2-3” for the whole 16 days. But 0” for each 24hrs individually, if that makes sense. Ens haven’t quite picked a day yet between the 6th and 10th
  21. NorthArlington101
    The median situation is still zero, FWIW.
  22. NorthArlington101
    only 4 would cause me to strongly reconsider canceling my flight out on the 7th
  23. NorthArlington101
    Just for you, even though I’m 1000% rooting against ya’ll for the 7th-14th and won’t lie about it!
  24. NorthArlington101
    Not so subtly praying on the downfall of any storms from Jan 7-14. Ignore my contributions in the LR thread as such
  25. NorthArlington101
    Am I looking at it wrong? AI looks good for Philly, bad for anyone not in NE MD here. Little bit of snow/ice than rain.
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