Jump to content

NorthArlington101

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,979

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    I both genuinely believe the median is better and only used less since it was new to WxBell last year… but it’s also a coping mechanism! If the 9th goes Miller A, I’ll be keeping this forum muted lol
  2. NorthArlington101
    See that’s where I disagree a bit… I like the medians and have tried to switch to those in my head. They are more cautious by nature and weigh out the outliers.
  3. NorthArlington101
    I’m only poking holes in the EPS because I’m not gonna be there, so take this with that grain of salt, but the “median” outcome as opposed to the mean is suppression on the 9th, kinda like the OP. Not taking away from @CAPE’s analysis above - just noting. Jan 6th has a better signal on the median.
  4. NorthArlington101
    EURO leaves the door open for the 4th - like the trend on that so far. Cuts on the 6th - tiny bit of ice to rain. Might be setting up something larger for the 10th. (Jk suppressed to oblivion)
  5. NorthArlington101
    CMC pops the coastal but not in a good spot for us. Plenty of time for things to push our way, though, was a trend in the right direction in general.
  6. NorthArlington101
    fwiw - 06z EPS for the 4th has an interesting blended mean. You'd look at this and think something probably happens
  7. NorthArlington101
    not disagreeing that this pattern is plausibly fruitful for them (e.g., the 06z GFS run) but despite what these hyperbolic statements always say I swear Webb or someone else says this every 1-2 years
  8. NorthArlington101
    If we got the Jan 4 storm back, it would be a nice reminder of the timeframe our storms usually appear in. I’m one of the guilty parties, but we’ve been trying to track individual threats in the long range for a week now, lol.
  9. NorthArlington101
    Oops - one too many tonight. Happy Holidays! Nice to see the Jan 6/7 surviving.
  10. NorthArlington101
    Saw you took back the DOA post. Good to hedge! what’s really missing this run is that Jan 5-6th storm… vanished entirely. Coming to grips with the fact that this pattern’s best shot at producing will be firmly while I’m drinking a marg on the beach. Worse problems to have
  11. NorthArlington101
    18z AI Euro is .5-.7” of precip region wide for the 5th/6th. Snow to ice to snow. Best run for that period yet.
  12. NorthArlington101
    It looks strange on Pivotal - not sure what to make of that
  13. NorthArlington101
    your AI EURO friend has something along those lines for the 5th - keeps going more amped/not as great for our subforum, though
  14. NorthArlington101
  15. NorthArlington101
    This happens every year we get a good pattern... the smartest posters (not me) identify the good pattern 2-3 weeks early. one week later, the dumber posters (this is me) panic because it hasn't snowed yet it doesn't actually snow this is optional - it could actually snow this time
  16. NorthArlington101
    https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=pwat
  17. NorthArlington101
    the distribution is great, as @Eskimo Joenoted sniping me with that tweet. But as others have mentioned, the ceiling outcomes are lacking, which troubles some more than others. I love stacking small/medium events... the median being sorta close to the mean excites me. hey, you were the one who told me to check!
  18. NorthArlington101
    honestly it's nothing too special - but we'd take. Well, you all would. I'll be on vacay rage ignoring the weather. it is good seeing the median get higher, though.
  19. NorthArlington101
    I see 6/7th, 8/9th, and then cold/drier for the end of the run but door still open. Weekies keep the possibilities open throughout Jan with the snow mean for weeks 3/4 being respectable. The 4th also trended a hair better.
  20. NorthArlington101
    GEFS and GEPS are interesting though hardly slam dunks for the Jan 5-7th window. A bit of a suppression signal on the means - smarter people will probably post better analysis. GEPS pretty aggressive - GEFS less so. GEPS snow mean for Jan 5-12th:
  21. NorthArlington101
    psu would rather a snowless winter than getting nickled and dimed. Maybe he'd be okay with getting quartered and half-dollared
  22. NorthArlington101
    Don't quite fully succeed on Jan. 6 but would only take reasonable adjustments for this range. This is before a flip to rain with a less-than-ideal transfer for us. Primary goes from TN -> OH instead of TN -> offshore.
  23. NorthArlington101
    12z EURO is closer on Jan. 4, but still a ways to go to have that trend our way. Might be teeing up the @HeisyJan. 6 storm, though
  24. NorthArlington101
    The reason I know things are at least a little dire is we’ve dedicated a page of our long-range thread to that wheel, lol.
  25. NorthArlington101
    I’ve been (anecdotally) unimpressed but others, including folks I respect (e.g., Matt Lanza) have blogged about use cases where anecdotally it does very very well. It’s lost some recent fights with its parent locally… but it scores well and I personally think this is one of the stronger AI use-cases.
×
×
  • Create New...