NorthArlington101

I'm only interested in drought-busting snows, sorry.

Really wish the EPS would show any precip around for the 3rd-5th window but it's dry as a bone... too bad since the GFS keeps trying to show a hit somewhere in the subforum in that period.

GFS tries on Jan 2 but it’s really too warm at the surface… need to push that storm back a few days or at least overnight.

Everything looks fantastic on the ens for an active period… clear we’ve got a couple windows. All we need is the snow median on the ens to start ticking up

Unfortunately this is all due to one member that shows a BECS - that’s the only snowy member for the 4th. Still plenty of time, though, ho ho ho.

18z AI EURO has a modest hit Jan. 5. Little more fuel for the Jan 4-6 threat window fire.

With enough willpower, we can combine our forces and make the storm in the 4th-6th window or postpone the best pattern til mid/late January. Keep manifesting!

Doesn’t look too far off something under the hood

GEFS is all over the place wrt exact timing but says you could in theory score starting the 2nd and rolls chances through after that.

Didn’t matter much but this band was fairly under-modeled as we got closer to the event. HDRPS had one of the better performances, I think.

Little glaze of sleet on the apartment patio furniture. Not enough to whiten Gonzaga High School’s football field, but glad to finally see winter.

GFS getting SECS-y

Lot of the hi-res models have dried up. Guess we’ll see tomorrow morning!

This tracks with the general consensus, unfortunately for me. I’m still interested seeing cutters roll through, especially since a EURO/GFS compromise would work out. Long way to go.

One thing I’ll note - one of these past years I’ve learned that we can accrete at 33/34/35 after days of below normal. Don’t think the instant we go above 32 tomorrow we’ll be clear, but good news is it should warm up pretty fast.

ante upped - especially for N MD on the 12k and 3k. This would be disruptive - I’ll enjoy the glaze from my apartment!

yeah... as soon as I sent that the oracle spoke. I've said this many times already but I'm gone from the 7th-14th barring the second coming of 2009 or 1996 so I'm fine if the good pattern gets delayed - but suspect it won't just to spite me and the folks going to AMS. Or if we just hit Jan 4-6, which the EURO still likes as a window. No reason to throw in the towel yet.

I don’t think it really is yet - pattern still looks good, people are just hedging against the building hype. We’ll know more by New Years, to state the obvious.

Close enough at range but not our HECS from yesterday. Might be setting up a monster at 360 though.

Short-range stuff back to having a FRZA/-SN band come through during the Tuesday morning commute. Could be mostly impactful if people are out-and-about on Christmas Eve. It'll stick. .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The low associated with the upper trough will be moving into the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. Isentropic lift in a moisture channel being drawn into this system may produce some very light precipitation late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Given the antecedent airmass, most areas should drop below freezing Monday night even with slight warm advection aloft and increasing clouds. Given the weak forcing, coverage of precipitation remain somewhat uncertain, with the highest chances along the Alleghenies and across northern Maryland east of Catoctin Mountain. Potential onset timing also ranges before and after sunrise. On top of this, there will be precipitation type challenges since the warm advection aloft could push the temperature profile above freezing. Even though QPF may only be several hundredths of an inch, any amount of wintry precipitation could pose a travel challenge given the cold ground conditions.

What’s brewing is a group trip to Texarkana for their blizzard

It helps produce more wild results - don’t think that’s a good thing! Though some of us love our digital blue. The AI Euro hasn’t scored any coups from its parent but nice to see them on the same page with that threat window.

I don’t think it means much more, but I think this is the first truly wild Euro OP run of the year. Helps that it runs to 360 now.