NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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More importantly it has the Sunday clipper! Very quick hitting but I’d take a ground-whitener.
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Both the GFS and CMC suggest a clipper is a possibility next Sunday. Probably our next “real” shot with the Turkey Day shenanigans on life support.
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I don’t think it’s gonna be meaningful in either case but 00z GFS and CMC seem to be making meaningful moves towards a more AI Euro-like evolution.
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I walk or bike to work. I’m now mostly in the camp of “if it’s not gonna snow it might as well be 70.” Cold blows.
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Supposedly better in some ways, worse in others (worse resolution). They have a write up on their site: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system Either way, should in theory have some utility. It’s not a waste to look. It is firmly on an island right now, though.
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Didn’t cave at 18z, but still too warm at the surface!
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18z GFS is gonna be a day earlier than the AIFS again it looks like. Difference is very clear at ~3 days on the GFS. Again, this is mostly an exercise in my head to reference later to see if the AI is gonna do anything for us this winter, but GFS pushes the energy onshore at like hr66. It gets held back and weakened on the AIFS which lets more cold build in/suppresses things south in the long run. Note the time differences below.
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12Z EURO AIFS stays consistent with a pretty ideal track. It's just iffy surface temps. 850s tighter this go around too. Regardless of whether this threat has any legs, interesting test of whether the AIFS might be sniffing something out
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I’ll wait for my AI darling to let us down before I let the fat lady sing. Spire also has a storm… AI revolution? [emoji6]
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Ignore me! Read more, post less. [emoji6] Thought it was looking more like its AI component for a second… WxBell was releasing partial info from later in the run. Didn’t turn out as hoped.
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Dangerous prognosticating from someone who doesn’t really know what he’s doing but I think the 12z EURO is gonna be a step in the right direction for us.
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06z AI Euro shows the path to a successful Thurs/Friday. Surface is still too warm, but with the 850s I imagine this is snow. Pretty identical to its 00z run too. Slightly better timing allowing accumulations to start overnight could = success
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One may solve the other a little bit but yes, a lot needs to go right here. I know I was still sorta in yesterday but I’m feeling out this morning. All in on Dec. 5th still though.
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We gotta shove the track of the Thursday/Friday storm south, consensus is looking like a path that is unworkable for most of us beyond a thump for our very special favored friends.
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That kinda counts as getting it done for November. PSU did blow that out of the water today though, lmao
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Seems like surface temps and 925s are an issue across the board. Largely evening/overnight timing probably still gets it done for favored spots.
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Gosh, 00z GFS is close for TDay. Verbatim a decent storm for NW burbs, close in burbs probably get a little bit of winter again.
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Im heartened by the fact the CPC agrees with the models as per their outlook. I’d be disappointed to not get 1” on the ground in the next 3 weeks within the beltway. That’s my bar, which is fairly ambitious given recent Decembers.
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Dec. 5th is a lock this year. Book it. Been saying it for weeks.
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Wonder when the last time the local airports reported that as an ob was? -
I thought the 12z EURO was a step in the right direction. Too early to call.
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CMC still looks interesting. Probably fighting a losing battle for our turkey day storm but not calling it quits yet
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Next.
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hello from 10’ of elevation land! as those yellows draw closer the flake size is increasing. Looks more like snow and less like drizzle.
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We’ll flip back to snow in heavier bands.
