NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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I’m stuck looking out an office window, but light RA/SN mix it seems near Ford’s Theater. -
Good news is we seem to be running ahead of schedule as far as that band pushing south, even if it doesn’t feel like it. Can maybe hold off a little bit of the temp rise and get more of us a shot at snow TV.
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For better or worse I’m with @Ji lol. Knowing it “would’ve been” snow in 4 weeks doesn’t ease my concerns. Our odds are so low by default we gotta try and win whenever possible. No moral victories
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Yeah I think that’s a fair read. GFS with some more oomph might’ve snowed but it was just a weak wave.
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00z GFS is a snoozer 00z CMC has classic I-95 and east screwjob Turkey Day storm
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Seriously, turn it on if you aren’t watching. Snow game of the year potential.
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Starting to come down good. Makes it easier to watch this snoozer. Go Steelers!
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Do you also have 2” of snow on the ground to go with it [emoji6] It is pretty regardless impressive though!
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Do you also have 2” of snow on the ground to go with it [emoji6] It is pretty regardless impressive though!
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GEFS has two distinct chances. First wave on Thanksgiving itself… living on the edge, probably favoring northern zones . Second wave on Friday/Saturday looks more interesting. Feel like that’s more along the ways we win.
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18z GFS reallly close for Thanksgiving for DC. Verbatim a warning level event for NMD.
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idk I'm thinking 10" might be possible in the Catoctins /s
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12k NAM continues to look aggressive when it comes to snow TV/accumulating snow for favored spots... we trust those thermals, right?
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Still plenty of time for a shift, but 12z ENS want to send the NS wave to the north for now. Uh oh!
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12z GFS is a little more interesting for Thanksgiving but verbatim it's close but no cigar. Worth tracking. White Turkey Day for PA/SNE
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Oakland is the perfect place to be for this one - have fun and send pics!
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they make me happy! and show the metric I'm interested in - which is more snow falling from the sky. my expectation remains 0.00" of stickage anywhere within 30 miles of DCA. Hope others feel similarly, would be foolish to expect more. Think you're good for 1" though
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The difference between the 3k NAM and the HRRR, the former of which shows some fairly scenic snow TV for all of Friday afternoon for most of the subforum, is largely the 925mb level. Also a slightly colder surface. The better runs of the globals/HRRR had the precip moving in earlier in the day. Now that it's later, the column isn't quite as snazzy, but 3k keeps it good everywhere but the surface. Others do not, but it's very close.
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and 3kNAM'd
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A NAM'd
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GFS didn’t really shift south any but some of the heavier stuff is more spread over the MD/PA border and trails down into DC. Suggests 1” is achievable in PSU land with somewhat cooperative temps… snow TV should make it down to DC.
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Just for awareness, since it’s a new tool to track this year, the 18z AI EURO (the one on WxBell… there may very well be other offshoots) has a thump to rain event next Friday based on temps. Probably 2-3” before a decent hit of rain and then dryslot
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More or less did precip-wise. I think most of what falls is probably snow… only real issue seems to be the surface. Hoping for a snow TV-filled day, expecting 0.00” accumulation!
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00z HRRR throws an aggressive snow shower right up I-66 tomorrow evening. Surely overdone, but maybe we can get a snow shower or two tomorrow evening?
