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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    storm after the storm after the storm, see you Jan. 15
  2. NorthArlington101
    It’s really close on Dec. 7… in the range you just said you wanted it to be on the GFS!
  3. NorthArlington101
    NYD looks fine - maybe some snow TV in the PA/OH part of the journey? Won’t pretend I can look at a map of Wyoming and predict mountain snow but the drive mostly looks chilly with some snow showers plausible
  4. NorthArlington101
    the SC/NC/GA mets have been very excited about this pattern. Would love this to work for all parties!
  5. NorthArlington101
    idk if that bodes well for the 8-9th either - don’t you sorta need the 5-6 storm to cut?
  6. NorthArlington101
    I know very few people are interested in this period given the potential shown elsewhere but GEPS received the Jan. 4 threat last night and even the OPs have been showing something on that date on recent runs. Idk how this impacts downstream for the later, more HECS-y opportunities.
  7. NorthArlington101
    Kuchera always lies but given that is falling when temps are like 10F you could probably 1.5x those results too.
  8. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, I don’t think enough was made of that run last night. During the daytime that would’ve have garnered enough posts to shut this forum down. Ultimate cold smoke blizzard run just happened overnight.
  9. NorthArlington101
    Widespread 8-12”. We take. Maybe I can fly out a day late?
  10. NorthArlington101
    It’s a nice, long-duration event. DC filtering with mix line at 246 while western spots do well
  11. NorthArlington101
    GFS gonna spit out a very different solution for the storm on the 6th. Def not an amped cutter
  12. NorthArlington101
    I spend too many hours tracking each winter to be content with missing a HECS. I missed Jan. 2022 and Dec. 2018, so it’s been pretty much been since 2016 since I’ve seen a real storm. I’m not so much hoping folks get skunked as I am that it happens before or after my vacation. We can delay the pattern a week or two. Last I’ll post about this tho - no need to deb on the mood.
  13. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, I’m being a jerk. It’s 2-3” for the whole 16 days. But 0” for each 24hrs individually, if that makes sense. Ens haven’t quite picked a day yet between the 6th and 10th
  14. NorthArlington101
    The median situation is still zero, FWIW.
  15. NorthArlington101
    only 4 would cause me to strongly reconsider canceling my flight out on the 7th
  16. NorthArlington101
    Just for you, even though I’m 1000% rooting against ya’ll for the 7th-14th and won’t lie about it!
  17. NorthArlington101
    Not so subtly praying on the downfall of any storms from Jan 7-14. Ignore my contributions in the LR thread as such
  18. NorthArlington101
    Am I looking at it wrong? AI looks good for Philly, bad for anyone not in NE MD here. Little bit of snow/ice than rain.
  19. NorthArlington101
    I both genuinely believe the median is better and only used less since it was new to WxBell last year… but it’s also a coping mechanism! If the 9th goes Miller A, I’ll be keeping this forum muted lol
  20. NorthArlington101
    See that’s where I disagree a bit… I like the medians and have tried to switch to those in my head. They are more cautious by nature and weigh out the outliers.
  21. NorthArlington101
    I’m only poking holes in the EPS because I’m not gonna be there, so take this with that grain of salt, but the “median” outcome as opposed to the mean is suppression on the 9th, kinda like the OP. Not taking away from @CAPE’s analysis above - just noting. Jan 6th has a better signal on the median.
  22. NorthArlington101
    EURO leaves the door open for the 4th - like the trend on that so far. Cuts on the 6th - tiny bit of ice to rain. Might be setting up something larger for the 10th. (Jk suppressed to oblivion)
  23. NorthArlington101
    CMC pops the coastal but not in a good spot for us. Plenty of time for things to push our way, though, was a trend in the right direction in general.
  24. NorthArlington101
    fwiw - 06z EPS for the 4th has an interesting blended mean. You'd look at this and think something probably happens
  25. NorthArlington101
    not disagreeing that this pattern is plausibly fruitful for them (e.g., the 06z GFS run) but despite what these hyperbolic statements always say I swear Webb or someone else says this every 1-2 years
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