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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    I’d be feeling pretty good about a widespread 4-8” with 6-12” upside if I was gonna be here Monday. Probably gonna need to do a weather detox until the storm passes once my flight leaves for my own sanity, lol.
  2. NorthArlington101
    Just for fun - the P>=6" is centered right where most of our folks are. Looks better every run, too!
  3. NorthArlington101
    I've been neglecting my thread - 12z EPS
  4. NorthArlington101
  5. NorthArlington101
    Pretty much as solid as you could want it.
  6. NorthArlington101
    Since I ain't gonna be there this is rich - but agree with the cautious optimism. Fairly narrow zone that gets the true goods - 100mi wide? The usual last-second shifts we get are gonna screw someone in this region. Most should see something, in fact if the EURO is right (and has been consistent) most do very well. But a little glad I won't be sweating the last second 50mi shift one way or the other.
  7. NorthArlington101
    I'm out to 1/9 but looks unlikely based on the players on the board
  8. NorthArlington101
    EURO rockets out so fast you can barely do PBP. Posted and refreshed 3 times and that was it
  9. NorthArlington101
    Slight jog north but mostly noise - Precip maxima shrank a bit.
  10. NorthArlington101
    Snowing at 111 - mix line norther (I-64)
  11. NorthArlington101
    Essentially identical through 102
  12. NorthArlington101
    I think the 10th has a better shot to be the event S/SE snow weenies have been dreaming of for years.
  13. NorthArlington101
  14. NorthArlington101
    FYI to everyone - you can get the CMC a little early in color out to 120 here: https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Does look like most will like the 12z.
  15. NorthArlington101
    lot of this for VA/NC border is ice
  16. NorthArlington101
    I also would've guessed north... not a good run verbatim.
  17. NorthArlington101
    Someone better get a good screengrab of the Local on the 8s closer to next Monday when it's snowing show. Iconic childhood memory (sorry to age folks) is being 9 and seeing all of the 2009-2010 storms appear on the Local on the 8s. Couldn't believe my eyes when that thing said 2' of snow possible, lol.
  18. NorthArlington101
    Yeah - the reason this isn’t as awesome as the EURO has been when you flip to Kuchera is that the ICON is warmer at the surface than other guidance. Held my tongue on that til you posted that since it’s the ICON, lol. It would all stick, but it’s like 31 in DC. Takes up til MD/PA border to get into the mid-20s. Seems to be on a bit of an island, but I guess verbatim ratios wouldn’t “save” folks this time. It’s pretty much the 10:1 map.
  19. NorthArlington101
    Yeah just like that ICON is south - though still a good hit for everyone except those on our far northern fringes. Ratios probably get this to warning-level snow for nearly everyone.
  20. NorthArlington101
    Agree - the models are bringing this disturbance through as snow showers and squalls. Hopefully widespread. RGEM shows maybe a best-case scenario.
  21. NorthArlington101
    This lost a little steam overnight. Let’s see if we can regain our .5” means today. Just want a real snow shower.
  22. NorthArlington101
    To be clear, 2/3 runs does not a trend make, but these are the "shifts" from 00z to 06z I noticed flipping through my phone this morning. North is the thing I'd be sweating still if I had more skin in the game, just because that's because we've been burned that way previously. Probably irrational lol but fears are learned through experience. These do also show a general ramping up of higher snowfall odds in general... take that to the bank folks!
  23. NorthArlington101
    I don’t disagree - in general love the spot folks are in. And definitely taking @Bob Chill’s last few messages into account that it might be worth worrying more about a south shift. Just doing worst-case scenario thinking. Would love 5-10” of snow cover when I get back!
  24. NorthArlington101
    Yeah - this is what I’m tracking today. Unlike what @Ji said yesterday, storms come back from the south. When things go north, it’s harder. We got lucky twice last year, though.
  25. NorthArlington101
    Good night!
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