NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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GFS is crazy slow to get this going. Says "what precip" and it's 1am Thursday. Finally icing around 4am
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I based that more off my read of the LWX AFD - but ultimately yes concur that there is most likely no real impact til that late evening-10pm period. fwiw the short range FV3 does the same thing as the RGEM
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Gotta take it with the grain of salt it deserves but RGEM is 1" of snow with sleet and 0.5" of ice for pretty much everyone, lol
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this got delayed a bit which is helping with the impacts - looks something like this as is 10am-10pm Wednesday: light rain/sleet/snow, T-1" as you go toward NE MD 10pm-10am Wednesday Night/Thursday morning: heavier sleet/FRZA, favored spots favored, changing from sleet to FRZA to rain SW->NE
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Still ongoing at this point but impactful-looking... still sleeting in NE MD
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3k is pretty sleety - as others have noted this would help the ice have a chance outside the trees/power lines.
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LWX's first pass:
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I think @WxUSAF mentioned wanting to see the next NBM earlier - fwiw... some of this is from the 10th but most is 12th-on
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another perspective just showing how clear this threat window is... if it wasn't already clear to the group
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buy!
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agree with all points - just to demonstrate a little, this is the 90th percentile snowstorm as shown on the EPS. MECS to maybe borderline HECS is the current "top level" outcome
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apple weather app showing 12" of snow next tues/weds... the (general public) hype is coming
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lwx disco, emphasis mine:
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This is a 24 hour mean - that's a "woof woof" big dog signal right there. Timeframe has been locked in for 2-days and keeps looking better. 24hr median is equally nutso
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It looks a lot like 00z - 6z went was less icy. But we're talking .1" of difference, though that obviously matters quite a bit
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thump to rain for the 12th
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It's the most meh of all guidance still for sure - but this would be impactful NW. It's ~28 in PSU-land, it's not super heavy, it should accrete.
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Small potatoes compared to what we are eyeing but EURO took a jump south for Saturday ices everyone up pretty good again... any of this precip that isn't snow is ice
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Kinda looks like the Wednesday/Thursday event tbh. Train tracks or whatever
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Eh, looked okay to me. I do prefer the hi-res depictions with a tiny bit of WAA snow before the sleet/FRZA before we mostly dryslot.
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Washes away but interesting run for sure. I’d feel pretty good about something if I wasn’t in the city, and if things keep trending towards the GFS maybe the blind squirrel found a nut. thread?
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Ice goes further south, colder, probably more impactful since it’s overnight. Maybe a little lighter on the precip totals but made up for by chill/timing.
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Mixed precip moves in in earnest around 1am - earlier runs today had stuff in the area closer to noon
