NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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This is a kind of interesting product. Really puts a dash in hopes for surface temps to cooperate fully outside of the mountains, at least with this run.
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18z GEFS is also less wet, which can't be helpful. Rates were big for success near I-95. Looking back at 12z even, temps near the Beltway got to 2C during the middle of the storm.
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Haha, if that's at me... totally fair. I'm genuinely just trying to learn what to look for beyond surface maps to see what would cause the low to jog NW. But it was a silly way to ask the question.
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Anyone smart wanna say how the low can jump from OBX at hr99 and then go NW to the mouth of the Potomac at hr102? Could just be me living in denial but it seems like a weird track.
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For posterity (for when it ends up totally wrong, hahahaa....)
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This is a bad run for I-95.
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SNOW HAMMER ZONE
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don't think ICON 850mbs are available but almost everyone loses 925s, other than the mountains. Way different than GFS/EURO. Honestly, I think it's tossable.
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ICON (I know) has been pretty consistent with snow to sleet/FRZA. Just trying to recall the past couple years, I know the ICON has advertised big FRZA storms before. None have ever come to fruition.
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I honestly don't know what to make of it. Runs once a day and by the time it comes out it's always old guidance. Makes it tough to to discuss!
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EPS was flatter/less amped at 12z than 06z, FWIW
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we get slammed at the end. verbatim (i know EURO gust product is bad) but it could justify a Blizzard Watch for D.C. proper
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12z: 00z:
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oh yeah. this is an infinitely better run.
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we get crushed in the deform. 12z: 00z:
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rates flip it to snow/rain/sleet for the 1-95 corridor. Not shocking IMO. Looks slightly mixier than previous runs but based on a quick glance it looks more like noise than a trend the wrong way.
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12z is gonna be a little warmer than 00z for ground temps, but mostly looks like noise.
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2" per hour rates on the CMC lol.
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GEFS mean is also impressive. Includes Monday's event.
