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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Probably depends a lot on which algorithm each site uses. Could be tough snow/sleet until the last minute.
  2. NorthArlington101
    12z 06z @Bob Chill
  3. NorthArlington101
  4. NorthArlington101
    Flips back to snow at the end. That's a nice trend.
  5. NorthArlington101
    Sure, but all that precip has to fall as something. I don't think we'll get 10" of snow, but I think we are looking at an almost all winter precip event. 1" of sleet and a light glaze is probably an undersell. The truth is in the middle somewhere.
  6. NorthArlington101
    Well if we take the rest of the run literally...
  7. NorthArlington101
  8. NorthArlington101
    This is very cool! I’d love to see you keep track of this in the future.
  9. NorthArlington101
    touch snowier, since you mentioned it. Better than the OP in the snow department (which isn't saying too much).
  10. NorthArlington101
  11. NorthArlington101
    Think that mean includes a ton of sleet for me in CHO but that’s the weeniest mean I’ve seen since being down here so imma frame that up and hang it on my wall.
  12. NorthArlington101
  13. NorthArlington101
    It's rolling out... at hr51 on WB
  14. NorthArlington101
    If it helps the GEFS might be the worse than the SREF /s (kinda)
  15. NorthArlington101
    What a weenie panel of the GEFS. Snow down to the VA/NC border on a handful of members.
  16. NorthArlington101
  17. NorthArlington101
    Little more south might be good. Not biased or anything
  18. NorthArlington101
  19. NorthArlington101
    Never gets above freezing during the event, might actually be pretty much all snow verbatim.
  20. NorthArlington101
    I think you might misunderstand the purpose of this thread, it's not to predict the most reasonable outcome, it is (mostly) to fantasize and enjoy the model runs, truthfully. I think most of us are here to have fun, and even if we know the most realistic outcome is not what the para is showing and is more like your inch of snow/sleet mix, we don't want to hear it repeated ad infinitum. We want to hope for something better!
  21. NorthArlington101
    Depends on the model right now. EURO would say you'd be dealing with ice on top of 4", PARA says it would've flipped to rain by that point so the ice on top of the 4" might be sorta out of the way (though roads still probably not great), original GFS says it would've been rained away, and ICON says you'll never leave your house again. In sum... too early to know, Friday morning being icy is well within the realm of possibility.
  22. NorthArlington101
    GEFS got colder/snowier. 18z 12z
  23. NorthArlington101
    Para GFS showing off it's new and improved CAD skills. vs. the old GFS
  24. NorthArlington101
    I know we brought up ICON but this is a snow/ice disaster. that's all frozen anywhere where temps are 32 or lower here. historically bad ice storm for VA/NC/SC
  25. NorthArlington101
    I don't think it would be mitigated by rates for at least the first 6-12 hours of the storm. It's a little chilly.
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