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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    the GEFS still have the tendency to follow the OP very very closely. It's not necessarily a problem of course when it's right, but slightly annoying given it can't be showing the full range of outcomes.
  2. NorthArlington101
    Didn't realize the GGEM showed a real storm. Huh. Starts snowing in CHO 6 days out on this run.
  3. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, I assume that is what it's trying to get at with the real splotchy appearance on the p-type depiction. Verbatim, the snow map gives virtually everyone a T-inch.
  4. NorthArlington101
    So close. Too bad the surface is on fire (like 35-37)
  5. NorthArlington101
    Lot of pessimism in here! BWI: 12.1" DCA: 8.4" IAD: 14" RIC: 4.8" Tiebreaker SBY: 3.2"
  6. NorthArlington101
    Thanks for this - passed it onto my family just in case, and they were planning on going shopping this weekend as it turns out. Lots of spooky rumor mill stuff out there about this, hope the threat is just that, spooky rumor mill garbage.
  7. NorthArlington101
    eh - not really accurate, still shows up as a “storm” on some GEFS members, EPS control, what looks like an increasing (still not many) EPS members… don’t get me wrong, I know it’s not gonna snow next week. But I love the tracking, which definitely helps get me through less-than-snowy winters. It ain’t dead till it’s on your doorstep.
  8. NorthArlington101
    00z GFS with an interesting solution again. Remains trackable.
  9. NorthArlington101
    Decent odds of it being cold enough for snow in the western reaches of the area. As I said a couple days ago, think the period is worth a legitimate watch, if only to get the tracking training wheels on. Looking at the successful GEFS and few EPS (sorta including the control on the 9th) it's clear we are rooting for a wacky coastal solution. Tough to get but fun to track.
  10. NorthArlington101
    Nov. 6 threat is still sorta there on the 00z GFS. The wave might be crossing the international dateline soon. Heard that the NWS station in Hilo might send up a weather balloon for a special sounding just for us.
  11. NorthArlington101
    Verbatim, that would definitely stick. Doesn’t matter if it’s November if it’s going at 2” an hour. Would accumulate in July at that rate!
  12. NorthArlington101
    06z GFS for the 3rd 06z EURO for the 3rd 06z GFS for the 6th
  13. NorthArlington101
    Agreed. I somewhat jokingly called it a threat window yesterday, but there is persistent model support to give us something trackable (by early season standards) for next week. Heck, you could call it two windows based on the 06z, which has a storm coming through on the 3rd and the 6th.
  14. NorthArlington101
    Some truly nuts tornadic storms out in Missouri. That one out by Chester has one of the nastiest debris balls I've seen.
  15. NorthArlington101
    Don’t call it a threat window. But…
  16. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, it had the idea right. Just weak and not quite as organized. We’ll probably get better sampling as the wave exits the Japanese coastline in a few days.
  17. NorthArlington101
    Thank you! If I accept that position, the HQ is technically in Arlington, but without getting too deep into it before anything is official, I'd expect a lot of my work to be in D.C. I'll have to make some real adult (gulp) decisions on where it makes the most sense to live... snow is only but one factor.
  18. NorthArlington101
    CAD is always undermodeled at range, though I'd take this thump for sure. Just needs to hold for a few dozen more runs.
  19. NorthArlington101
    You didn't see the 18z GFS?
  20. NorthArlington101
    As one forum member enters college, I am soon to exit... Nothing official yet, but I have an awesome job offer in the area that would allow me to definitely afford to keep living around the Washington D.C. area. Guessing I'll sign that soon, and then you'll all be stuck with me... forever. Bad news is I might live in D.C. proper for a bit. What a snow nightmare.
  21. NorthArlington101
    You've become such a good poster. Awesome discussion. Fingers crossed for snowier outcomes this year. We could all use it.
  22. NorthArlington101
    Welcome to a place for weenies to share snow maps and fantasy storms that will never happen... unless they do, of course. Renew those model subscriptions and get to obsessively tracking those storms that are 16 days out. They say the big ones lock in early... Kicking us off for the season is a nice little run of the 00z EPS control. Still room for this to trend better!
  23. NorthArlington101
    00z GFS brings western areas their first upper 30s and rain of the season in about 10 days.
  24. NorthArlington101
    People seem to think so, yeah. Also:
  25. NorthArlington101
    Pretty menacing AFD from DDC.
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