NorthArlington101

Through hr35 the 18z EURO has taken the slightest jog northward. No major changes so far, really.

WxBell's ICON clown map.

NAM has the goods south of D.C. for wave two.

Honestly, you are 100% right. I was complaining earlier this week when it seemed I might miss north and south and now I’m sorta asking people not to moan. That’s on me.

For sure! I'm excited by them, especially down here where they've been consistently good. That said, I'm trying to adopt a different mindset as of late. Taking a three hour walk through the past storms has really helped me just appreciate the beauty of it and not watch the radar. With the ultimately underwhelming compared to expectations storm this past Sunday, walking through the massive dendrites was just amazing. Didn't know what was coming up on the radar (not that the radar ever tells you what's happening down here in CHO) and just enjoyed it in the moment. that said the EURO has promised me 10"+ multiple runs in a row and if I get less than that...

It's all about expectations... people have been reading of an epic few weeks and seeing the first storm trend into 48 hour storm that only puts down 5" in some spots isn't all that exciting. I'm still not good at learning to not buy into the weenie runs so I don't personally judge others who get sucked in and disappointed. I sorta wish people would scream into their pillows instead of venting here but there are worse ways to get rid of anger then by using uppercase letters!

12z: 06z:

Part 2:

Tough to draw the line but I'd call all of this "wave one."

Rain/snow line is well south of DC. Bisects Cville and stays along that E/W line.

Seems to be 6 hours ahead of schedule of 06z.

hah, no worries. It's a good reminder. That's why I often just post the maps and allow them to speak for themselves... often times when I try to call it a good run I get comments from the one part of the forum it wasn't a great run for, lol.

Isn't it like 5-5.5" up there on the UKMET? A pretty forgivable "mistake" to round that up to 6-10" considering that is the result in 90% of the region.

This look is basically identical from 00z. Good to see some sort of consistency.

Yeah, this ended up being a banner run for DC-south. Very much ended up as psu being fringed. Kuchera clown maps have CHO at 16”, DC at 14”, Balt at 8”, and PSU-Ville at 5. My bias is kicking in, but I darn sure hope that’s the outcome.

EURO looks essentially the same when it comes to positioning (maybe slightly more south) as 18z but wetter.

I'm really ambivalent about this week. Love winter weather. Don't think I love ice. Looking forward to a prolonged wintry period but I don't need sleet/FRZA hell.

Welp, looking like I should order an ice scraper for my car. Lotta ice in Central VA on that run. Great fun for wintery precip as a whole.

I find this graphic best for showing the "monster" potential. DC-south (really I-81) has the best shot right now if you believe the ens.

For some people it is! 12z: 06z: