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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    scrolled to the 06z run and thought it was a massive improvement snowmap wise — went back to 00z and it’s about the same if not slightly worse, though the 12z gives some more wiggle room. still, provides a fair bit of hope. Lot of models with a good stripe through the area, sorta feast-or-famine though.
  2. NorthArlington101
    I don't have your elephant memory but it's the best run of the past few cycles - seems the way we win here is more suppressed and somewhat strung out rather than a massive storm that lucks out, though I would like to see exactly how the UKIE pulled it off.
  3. NorthArlington101
    EURO is a step in the right direction. We can pretend that satisfies us and move on
  4. NorthArlington101
    Not to dissuade people from subscribing since they deserve it, but adblockers do the job well.
  5. NorthArlington101
    probably, but the UKIE and GEFS look decently wintry, as does (your favorite model) the ICON. Almost sounds like a consensus when you put it like that. Almost.
  6. NorthArlington101
    Pretty substantial change from 00z.
  7. NorthArlington101
    didn’t we just see a tweet from someone talking about how the CMC was one of the better global models at this point? either way, the icon is on board to, so we are set
  8. NorthArlington101
  9. NorthArlington101
    CMC is delayed but again more suppressed. Snow spreading through Central VA with the mix line not looking too far behind at hr126. mix line stays south of CHO through hr132. This is gonna be a nice run (for out first storm)
  10. NorthArlington101
    I'll stop posting individual shots of the GEFS after this, but it's fair to say that most members look very different than the 12z OP run --- generally weaker and more suppressed + earlier with the storm but wintrier as a result. Happens pretty rarely that there is such disagreement from what I've seen, so consider me invested.
  11. NorthArlington101
    GEFS rolling in more wintry -- the members that get precip in by Tuesday seem to want to start it as ice/wintry mix for at least parts of the subforum.
  12. NorthArlington101
    12z ICON still spits out a very interesting result for much of the subforum. Doesn't show wintry mix but with temps it's very close for most, snow for much of D.C. north, ice out west. Little colder towards game time and it's a money run. Hope to get more people on the ICON train this year. Would be a good way for it to prove itself.
  13. NorthArlington101
    8:30 is super late -- that sucks. My last tidbit of advice would be to just make sure not to burn all your energy on the first race. It might look impressive but it's a swim meet - part of what you are there to learn is how to maintain enough energy to compete in each race. That said, I'm sure you are in shape enough to rock a 50fr after the 500 -- you could probably rock a solid 50fr after swimming the mile.
  14. NorthArlington101
    Digital ice thread?
  15. NorthArlington101
    Jeez, that is about my nightmare set of events. I *would not* go a 30s pace in the 500 if you haven’t really done it much before. 5:00 is fairly quick for a high school meet - I’d sorta just try and outpace the guy next to you. If a 5:00 500fr breeze for you, rock on. The issue with HS meets is that there often isn’t a warmdown pool and there are only two heats, so you are gonna get a ton of lactic acid buildup. Do some nice walking around warm down and stay hydrated!
  16. NorthArlington101
    Very brief snow-to-rain, verbatim. Favored areas might get an inch before the deluge.
  17. NorthArlington101
    Flurries in Charlottesville. #ontheboard
  18. NorthArlington101
  19. NorthArlington101
    Based on the mPING reports, guessing I can claim first flakes around the Arlington area? Tough to say, though.
  20. NorthArlington101
    Maybe next time
  21. NorthArlington101
    UVA and Tech will be on at 3:45! Make sure to support the right team - can’t promise snow.
  22. NorthArlington101
    Think we can say the period needs to be watched without tossing random OP runs, haha. The GEFS are definitely active from the 5th-8th. Hopefully there is something fun in that period.
  23. NorthArlington101
    Snowfall is an anomalous event but still common enough -- run enough model runs during the winter when it can in theory get cold enough and I don't think its surprising that a model run a day spits out snowfall.
  24. NorthArlington101
    12z GFS doesn't look like it's gonna do it for us by hr99 -- vort seems to be too north/lot less strong than in 06z, just flipping back and forth. very light snow for parts of the area at 102.
  25. NorthArlington101
    This is basically banter, so apologies, but I'd pay an obscene amount of money to move this up a day and get some snow falling during the UVA/Virginia Tech football game. Only thing that could make UVA routing Tech better is if it was a snow game... To end the banter, snowmap!
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