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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    For real -- this storm has had too many moving pieces not to shift around further but the consensus among the Top 3 globals is remarkable. If we all lived 75 miles west we'd be honking the "big ones lock in early" weenism. Control matches the OP.
  2. NorthArlington101
    Pulled out the old CIPS analogs tool. Doesn't look terrible.
  3. NorthArlington101
    Gotta say, that's a heckuva consensus. Storing this here just for fun.
  4. NorthArlington101
    the map I posted above includes it, for those wondering.
  5. NorthArlington101
  6. NorthArlington101
    Western burbs destroyed
  7. NorthArlington101
    Low in a crummy spot for the metros at 138. Looks a ton like the GFS/CMC
  8. NorthArlington101
    Snow past DCA at 135, mix line is close but to the east. Heavy stuff into CHO
  9. NorthArlington101
    Snow has made it up past CHO by 132. Looks incoming.
  10. NorthArlington101
    maybe I shouldn't have made fun of the UKIE
  11. NorthArlington101
  12. NorthArlington101
    Another massive guidance shift... 12z 06z
  13. NorthArlington101
    UKIE has 6" for Atlanta and 12" for Douglas, GA (to the SE). I'll toss.
  14. NorthArlington101
    Wanted to add one more GEFS comment then I'll stop the image spam -- the mean improved drastically, but there is still considerable uncertainty among the ENS members. This might be the most conservative 1"% chance I've seen with a snow mean of ~5" in DCA.
  15. NorthArlington101
    Its out to 120 (which is as far as it goes) on the old Canadian government site. Looks nice but hard to tell too much with the one map it gives. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
  16. NorthArlington101
    Massive shift. Hard to overstate. 12z 06z
  17. NorthArlington101
    Also -- no lows look poised to run right through Virginia.
  18. NorthArlington101
    GEFS still has a lot of spread but there are fewer members that are uber-suppressed, FWIW.
  19. NorthArlington101
  20. NorthArlington101
  21. NorthArlington101
    @Interstate, good call.
  22. NorthArlington101
    did you actually see the 06z? i don't think you want that to happen "if" that's the correct idea
  23. NorthArlington101
    I don't think I've ever seen the ICON spit out more than 12" of snow, anywhere
  24. NorthArlington101
    I bet you care about this one too, and it is… surprisingly not that notable?
  25. NorthArlington101
    every outcome under the sun possible on the p-type maps. I’ll let someone smarter properly analyze the goods but my rookie read was the GEFS looked more suppressed than previous runs. though of course noting this is still sorta early in the overall window
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