NorthArlington101

We’re talking tenths of an inch (at best) here… probably won’t have any solid idea of if first flakes are likely til Monday. Nice to see it pop up on a few runs still.

For the time being, the consensus definitely would seem to be that closer to the NC/VA border is the spot that could sneak in a snow shower with any secondary development early next week. Right where we want it?

Yeah, our only shot locally is flukey secondary nonsense. EPS is actually more into it than I assumed it would be. Worth watching cause nothing else is on the table right now

That depiction might work for the mountains (prob not for Cville) if that's the way things went but pretty sure the only way we'd see flakes in the metros where most of us are is if the EURO/UKIE/CMC/ICON have a clue and we just happen to be the lucky spot

The secondary development is fairly clear on the 12z EPS... not paying for individual members yet but the mean through the area is a T of snow at this point.

ICON has it for Central Va, UKIE has it for NE MD. Think it could be real… would just like first flakes without needing to drive to Snowshoe

Pivotal, WxBell, and Weathermodels are probably the options for the nicer maps these days. WxBell is more expensive (like twice as much as Weathermodels at least) but since I’m a sucker for routine I’ll probably pay it ($30/mo) once we’ve got a real threat on the horizon. I’ve learned to navigate it well on my phone too which helps

Love the ICON bringing snow showers to coastal South Carolina before us

They need another warning for exceptionally gusty showers. No thunder = not a thunderstorm

I’m still invested in the flurries, but nice to see a colder long range + a trackable something at Day 15. I’m eager to get back into the sport of tracking, even if nobody should realistically be expecting any snow til December.

18z EURO looked a bit interesting at the end of its run. Least for the mountains. That’s where my commentary ends.

Mountains get a decent hit and it’s cold enough something might fly over. it’s nice to even be looking

12z EURO has plausible first flakes/flurries for the next Monday/Tuesday period. First “threat window” maybe

GFS interesting again. I’d chase that Monday and just take it off since Tuesday is a federal holiday. Let’s see what happens.

Happy Models Initiate at the Right Time of Day Eve! A day when many re-up their WxBell subscriptions… though I may way til a real threat now that lots of Euro stuff is free.