NorthArlington101

AIFS much better. Where is @stormtracker to unpanic?

Might be overdoing the praise for the AIFS in some cases but its pretty darn compelling, imo. At least equal to the EURO in terms of midrange synoptics.

Not lurking in ya'lls space to troll, but the SREFs are terrible. What's remarkable about it is that it used to be considered a usable tool. Only look for entertainment. Some members have it dumping snow in D.C.. Barring the coup of the century, it's a toss.

Imagine if the 12z HRRR did what it just did to Raleigh/VA beach to DC/Baltimore. Now that’s worth a crashout.

Only able to see precip total maps, but the non-AI euro has a northern band and a southern band kind of situation for Wednesday. Good chunk of Maryland squeaks out 1” or so - rest is too south for most of us.

Juiced up a little bit, yeah. Still fairly fringed. Belongs in the other thread really but AIFS ticked better for our southern folks for Saturday. Somewhat decent tick given its usual stubbornness in the last few hours. Might mean an extra inch for someone. But if you buy it verbatim really only a super cool storm for eastern NC/barrier islands at this point.

AIFS says no - south. Might join @stormtracker and say goodnight on this one soon!

Hope it pans out! Florida flurries are cool, at least south of the Panhandle. Panhandle gets as much snow as we do these days.

I guess I'm just not willing to sweat this one yet. Trends aren't awesome. Long as it doesn't turn into an OBX bomb like the GFS I won't lose much sleep. Hearing some chatter from Tomer + others for mid-Atlantic threat mid-month. Probably on the one day it would be horrifically inconvenient for me and my folks. Think we'll have something else to track even if this window totally evaporates in the next 2 days.

The storm did intensity over OBX and now I’m raising my pitchforks with you. Like another 6-10” there on Kuchera. Apologies But also it’s the GFS. I’m finally gonna learn the lesson to ignore it. Ignorance is bliss

Then it’s rain? I guess WxBell panels are still loading but this doesn’t seem worth the consternation

I assumed you meant south like North Carolina, not Central VA. If we want to treat the GFS like a normal model, this run is okay with me. In the game

I was looking at the models this morning and feeling bad for our North Carolina/SE VA weenies but they mostly seem to be feeling okay? I took a very quick glance at the AIFS & its ens and thought the world would've exploded.

I meant what I said earlier that echos what @Heisy said. We’d all probably have better forecasts and expectations only looking at the AIFS until Day 3 or so when you start adding short range models for precip/temps. But that’s no fun. I love living and dying by each model run