MillvilleWx

There's a tool we can use at work that is experimental that incorporates the National Blend of Models and the Bias Corrected GFS to review multiple facets of data, including QPF, snow totals, snow QPF, ratios, etc. I can't show this because it's gov't use only and I'm not sure if they want it disseminated to the public. However, I will share what I'm seeing in terms of NBM QPF and snow ratios. As of the latest run this morning, the average snow ratios follow a traditional climo with perhaps a slight tick down than usual due to expected lower boundary layer warmth that will be present prior to storm arrival. 7-8:1 is the average I'm seeing on blended guidance for areas along Rt 50 up to central DE and @CAPE area. DC is a 7-8:1 in the metro proper, but you can see the improvement at times on the hourly time step when banding moves overhead with a 9-10:1 more common during those time frames. 9-10:1 is common for between Rt 50 and I-70 with 10-11:1 for areas out west of US15 and north of I-70. 12-14:1 is common out in the Mtns of the Alleghany front in WV into Western MD. QPF is pretty solid for a blend with 0.50" contour running through FDK with a direct SW to NE placement down the Blue Ridge into SoPa. 0.70" runs I-95, and 0.8+" is located on the eastern shore of MD into DE. Remember. this is a blend so there is a smoothed mean in the process, so banding potential will place lower/higher amounts in-between those contours outlined, but this is a general spread. Some of the QPF will be wasted to liquid in MOST spots, but I'm noticing areas north of I-70 and out west along the I-81 corridor will likely start as snow. I'll try to have an update later this afternoon, but I have the grids today, so I'll be busy later when I have to do the forecast.

The fact Midland doesn't have a Waffle House astounds me. I'd be there today if I had one. We do have a BOMB pancake house that makes literally everything from scratch. A little pricey but the taste is 5* breakfast. I oblige every now and then with the wife on weekend mornings.

Now I want waffles and I'm at work with no waffles. Thanks man

Today is the day where we SHOULD get some consistency in guidance in regards of the SLP positioning and overall evo of the UL pattern (25H jet, 5H vort, 85H low, etc). I'm a fan of the dynamic standpoint of the higher res guidance, but they are still not within the wheelhouse, imo, until the 12z runs today. They should have more weight carried with an ECMWF/EPS/GFS blend for the overall UL synoptic setup. I'll try to have a forecast for the storm later today. At work now, so sorry for the late response. Went right to bed after the NAM runs and the vax had me fatigued all evening.

I agree and I would think that's very much in the realm of possibility!

I agree. I think a general 1-4" NW of I-81 is the way to go with 4" chances obviously higher further to the SE. This is a SE LSV type storm. York/LNS/LanCo Hills are the ones that have the best chance to cash.

It's def a primed LSV target with areas like southern half of York to LanCo as the benefactors this go around. I think 3-6" with local to 8" is very doable for those spots. Further NW will be lacking the juice unlike the counties I mentioned, but they can make up for it with lift and better ratios. I think advisory level snowfall is a given at the very least.

Y'all ready for more snow?

That's the HREF! Here'a a link to it for reference and a great one to book mark https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/

It's a CAM, so it can exaggerate in the synoptic scale due to convective feedback concerns that stem from latent heat release and localized pressure falls. @csnavywx touched on the limitations of the higher res models in a synoptic scale setup. It's okay in the short term (<24 hrs) as it can show banding characteristics, but it's prone to larger swings in guidance, especially SLP positioning. The NSSL is the same deal, although I found it to be not as jumpy with handling the surface reflection compared to the ARW/NMM. It is AWFUL with ULL though, so anything like that, avoid at all costs.

ARW was very amped. CAPE would absolutely despise this run for sure. I honestly want him to get hit. He's just barely missed so many times. Would be awesome for the I-95 crew though. There will be winners and losers like any other time. There will be winner and losers within 10-15 miles of each other with this kind of event. Band central

Nah. Like Lady Gaga, I was born this way. I perform all my own stunts

I take it you are probably going to tuck that frame into bed with you tonight? That's some serious lift for a good 2 hr period for your hood

Areawide 4-8" with up to 11-12" max. Speed is too quick for anything that over the top in a marginal lower boundary layer. That's a big WSW event in an 8-10 hr time span

Not fully out yet on TT, but I'll post the love once it comes into view

Noticed that after you said something. That was really close to a bigger hit. Literally a 3 hr sooner closed 85H and Woof

I hope @stormtracker is alone and not in public right now

There will be so many fatties ripping for a 3-6 hour period, you'd think you were at a Grateful Dead concert

Man, I was on the phone talking to my friend and watching the run come in. I get off the phone to come here and say it was another nuking and I saw people about to ledge jump at hr 27. The lift was still there and everything. Some of y'all worry too much lol

Thanks Bob. These are the kind of storms I know you like too. Hot and heavy, no wait, puking fatties, and perfect for that extra long dog walk

Awesome post man. Agreed. I always use caution with a CAM dominant model during synoptic due to those issues you described above. I mentioned earlier that the uniformity we see from globals and even the 12km Parent are likely not going to occur with a setup like this where intense frontogenic forcing at 7H and 85H will be the drivers of banding potential and who gets maxed. I was thinking Easton area over to Kent Island up to CAPE and south of frd might be the jack, and still could, but the I-95 and NW crew up near the line could see the most of the frontogen placement and strength depicted materializes because they will also have the orographic factor to increase the local lift within the lowest confines of the boundary layer. I just got the vaccine, so I’m sitting in a parking lot to make sure I don’t have a reaction or something. Them I’m gonna go home and look more at soundings. Hopefully you guys can get whacked with this one [emoji41] .

This isn't even in the same stratosphere as the last system. Evolution and moisture transport are totally different. Upper levels are different. This will come down to rates and evap cooling of the lowest 3000' in the boundary layer. Baltimore still looks good, but areas west of I-83 need to watch for anymore NW trend.