poolz1

You ain't lyin'....00z Eps not quite as aggressive with the NAO like the gefs and geps but wants to really get the -EPO/+PNA cranking as it pushes the Aleutian low further east. All showing a -AO tho... No matter how you slice it, things are really shaping up for a Dec 5th shellacking!

I think LWX summed it up pretty good in their overnight discussion. Its a razor thin margin and models will sway 1-2 degrees throughout the column on every run...but in this case 1-2 degrees is the difference between a winter landscape and mud with some crunchy leaves. IMO, unless things take a very obvious trend today, it will be a nowcast situation. If i envision a bust on the positive side, and speaking mainly for mby, I would like to see clear calm conditions until about 1am, WAA precip racing up the shen valley and becoming heavy...snow breaking out by 4-5am and becoming heavy pretty quickly....thump until noon. Just give me several hours of what looks like deep winter and its a huge win. Greasing the gears early this season and with the h5 look in the lr, it's going to be a long ride!

18z Euro

I think it all depends on rates at the beginning of the event... If it comes in hot it will stay mostly snow until things lighten up. Once light mixed precip takes over it will be tuff to go back to snow unless we get real ull action. Going to be tough to forecast amounts and amounts will probably vary greatly. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

I don’t know....I thought they were so washed out it’s hard to say. Even more washed than last run. But the weak signals given were “ok” imo. Not a disaster but nothing to really hang your hat on either..

Epic is right ,man! JMA is all in for dec, Jan and feb....good lawd. Maybe the eps weeklies will catch on sometime soon....

It definitely does....in marginal events it’s tough to get an handle on what each member is actually depicting unless you dig deep into each one individually. IMO, the only takeaway is that things again trended colder/more frozen than 12z.

Too slow on the keyboard! Lol

EPS certainly taking a step toward the gefs in the LR. Scan ridge poking into GL now and Aleutian low further east.

Gefs upped the ante on a slightly colder scenario...most of these members are probably counting sleet as snow...but the takeaway is more frozen is on the table per the 12z run.

Gfs has at least slightly reversed the trend of slowing the ull down. A good sign imo...

@ 06z....just before precipitation arrives, column is plenty cool area wide. Boundary temps an issue in and around the metros but most areas 30-34 with dews 20-22.

06z gfs Faster onset of precipitation Colder initial conditions Better high placement over upstate NY Stronger system Let’s baby step into our first legit event of season! Maybe a long shot but positive signs so far...

Yep...who knows how the strength/position of that high will trend tho. Looks like most areas would at least start off as a brief period of frozen. Just a slight trend colder and it could be first flakes for many of us. Nice looking storm nonetheless...

That sure would have been a fun run 3 or 4 weeks from now. As it is...it was close to a frozen event for far NW areas Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

That does definitely look to be how things are trending. The blue ball doesn’t look like it want to set up shop for an extended period. Man...it’s frustrating watching that Aleutian low stop its progression eastward. So close to setting up a great pattern as we enter Dec....as it stands now it looks like the idea of a western trough may have legs.

I was actually considering contacting them about this. It is frustrating and seems worse with the GEFS. This is the main reason I gave weathermodels.com a try but I spent years understanding how to navigate wxbell and I dont think I have it in me to figure out another Maue labyrinth.

Last few runs of the gefs predicting some warming at 10mb developing in the 10-15....Here is the 00z run. Quite a difference between D10 and D16...wait and see if it has legs..

00z Icon and CMC have a similar scenario with a followup storm....its a long shot but something to keep an eye on

Muted and blah....no real strong signal of anything after early Dec. Not a disaster but not what I was hoping to see for a strong Dec showing. On a positive note...they will run again on Monday.

Pic doesn't do it justice...but just a beautiful Nov sky this eve over the farm beside our house....

Couldn’t agree more...they won’t all be frozen but I think we will get our fill of tracking this winter. Can’t wait....

An odd evolution that’s bound to change but the euro has a wintry system D7/8

Pretty consistent the last few runs with a lot of energy still left to pass thru while the slp is already up to mass. First mangled flakes of the season for western areas if it holds true? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

Starting to see the end of the mild pattern already showing up on lr ens. Both 00z gefs and eps with signs of the Aleutian low getting started. Gefs with a decent look out in time with higher heights into GL... Still some work to do but good timing, imo, for things to evolve nicely for early Dec. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk