poolz1

Isn't the strength of the nino determined, to a certain extent, by the strength of the walker cell? This has always been forecasted to be a weak nino to perhaps moderate. Having the walker cell weaker shouldnt be a surprise, right? Would think that other factors, as you noted, would have a greater chance of affecting the cold season pattern than if we had a solid mod/strong ninio throwing it's weight around. eta: I'm honestly questioning because I dont know....I understand very little about what HM posts some times.

.62" over 5 hrs has been enough to make the backyard creek bank full again. 3k and hrrr both indicating some convective rains as it comes to an end tonight. This should be enough to cause some localized, and maybe more widespread, flash flooding around the area.

.57” at home but a great storm in eastern Frederick county. Lots of T&L and I would guess 1”+. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

DCA : 11/12 BWI: 11/1 IAD: 10/31 RIC: 11/25 Tiebreaker: 5.4

Only .23" today so far.... 44.59" for the year so far. I know it not a news flash that water tables are high around the area but I have not seen anything like this. In-ground spas are popping out of the ground, pool walls are being heaved inward and pools that are empty for repairs have springs shooting up from the shell. Before this year I could count on one hand similar instances (25 years being in this line of work). We have over a dozen instances this year so far. Problem is, most homeowner's policies do not cover this type of damage.

Absolutely...There is no data out there to suggest that 1+2 stays warm for any extended period of time (or, warmer than 3.4). Really nothing to dislike about the SST in PAC except for my cherrypicked graph there..lol I'm just practicing my normal handwringing before winter arrives. The cold water west of Australia is going to have a real hard time reversing anytime soon which should continue the SOI crash and the damage should be done by the time we head into winter.

Hoping this is just a blip in 1+2. I know this region can be volatile but this is a pretty good spike.

This is the control run from the weeklies. Monthly run comes out at the beginning of the month I think... Was mostly a banter post. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

Fantasy land map posting dry run.....

.84" in the bucket at home...looks to about it.

Another one today..pretty good tumble going on and looks to continue negative.

Man! Thought my .28” in 15 minutes was notable...guest not looking some other reports. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Just glanced at it...HLB ftw I would love a front loaded winter...would prefer wall to wall but not having to wait until mid January for once would be nice. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Keep it coming....

Radar yesterday evening reminded me of the event earlier this season that hit southern Frederick and Washington counties....just shifted a bit NE. Back building, slow moving convection. Though not quite as robust. Seems like we have had an abnormal number of events of slow moving thunderstorms this year. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

53 here this morning. Felt like a fall fishing morning....On the water with sweatshirts and stocking caps at 7am and T-shirts and sunblock by noon.

Last comment about the birds...I promise. If you look at COD radar on 48 frames you can see several of these circles and they look to line up with the Susquehanna river up to Harrisburg. I'll see if I can find a bird forum for future posts...I'm sure the folks in there will have as good of a sense of humor as this place.

Gotcha...didn’t know that. That certainly makes more sense ...rather than mysterious bird circles in the sky. Lol Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Yes...I can’t say that it has happened every day but most mornings here recently it has. I agree, it has to some type of wildlife. Strange tho that birds would fan out in a perfect circle.... Maybe they are scrambling to bulk up before the bay freezes over in December! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

1.68" Yesterday. 1" Coming in about 30 minutes. Anyone know what the blow up is every morning on Radar in NE MD? Right around Aberdeen....Though this morning was a bit east of there. Some type of insect hatch...birds??

That's awesome... Canning pickles is one of favorites. We got about a dozen and then, over 3 days, healthy plants completely died Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

Funny... Just the opposite here. Banner tomatoes but cucumbers died abruptly a few weeks ago. 4 plants. Still trying to figure that one out. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

Good thing you are flat and coastal....a quarter of that would have caused sig flooding around mby. That is why we are “following “ rain....different topography and climate. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Saw that line that just came thru there... Looks to be making it up this way. At least you got something to settle the dust out there. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk