poolz1

Yea...I def took the low end of whats being advertised. Lots of 50+ on the models. Get your Christmas candles out...or your Christmas generator! Def seems like the gfs is trying to get back to some snow...Flakes would be great. A quick period of rates and stickage....with morning roof blizzards would be perfect...

18z gfs with 2-3" for the 81 corridor....already saturated ground and 40+mph gusts.

Thought that batch in OH looked pretty robust earlier...only the 3k nam had it there but not to that extent. Other mesos just had scattered returns in OH and W PA.

If it happens I say we officially dub this the @frd storm. lol! j/k

35 and a few nice bursts of snow this morning. Looks like one more to move through...so close to a car topper here.

BWI: 17.5" DCA: 11" IAD: 20.5" RIC: 5.5" SBY: 11"

Agreed. I dont see how we avoid significant bouts of a very unfavorable pac.... We'll be constantly teased with models showing an eastward progression of the MJO and therefore a better looking long range signal in the Pac. At least in this weenie mind, trying to find a silver lining, the 2 main features that seem to stick around on ensembles are the low heights west of the Aleutians and the higher heights in the Scan region. If we can maintain the features somewhat, maybe we can periodically offset what will be occurring in the Pac. Keeping the PV in check and giving us bouts of HLB. As the MJO tries to push into more fav areas, dies and then reemerges over unfavorable areas....these occurrences may be our windows of opportunity this winter? Or, maybe nothing works out as planned (like last year) and we end up with these looks on the regular!

I thought the EPS showed some glimmers of things trending the right way as we near the middle of Nov. Maybe starting with the Pac....all caveats, obviously. I am willing to kick the can a little down the road with any decent pattern. If we truly end up with a front loaded winter...I dont want to waste our only HLB on mid/late Nov.

The AO and NAO have been negative for roughly the past two weeks and this was telegraphed nicely by the ens, imo. Neither the GEFS nor the EPS are forecasting any HLB for the foreseeable future. Not arguing the fact that phantom blocking periods have not been an issue the past year+ but I dont think we can say the same yet for this cold season. Head fakes and magnitude issues are always going to happen with LR ens guidance.

Not snow but it would be plenty cold for some powder! Perfect weather to wake up with a cup a coffee and raid the kids candy bags.

Funny, the euro has this winter forecasted to turn out the same as last winter yet had the opposite forecast this time last year. Though, maybe the climate models have a better chance at being somewhat accurate with what looks like a typical atmospheric response to the current enso state...unlike last year. I am fully prepared for fluke hunting this season. Whatever. Work is pouring in and a mild winter would be extremely helpful.

Current SST anomalies are interesting, imo. Though the PDO clocked in at -1 for Sept it did rise from its Aug reading of -1.3. I understand the current state of anomalies are bound to change but if we can manage to keep some semblance of the current look as we enter Dec it would be at least encouraging. The warm water along the west coast, coolish pool where we are used to seeing the blob and an east based (up for debate ) nina. To me it looks close to '95 right now....just the warms are warmer. Sept of 95 had a +pdo...must be 2020's lack of cool anoms to the east of Japan?

Besides the 50/50 ridge...Id take this any month Nov-March. That's one heck of a LR signal. It's nice to actually have a fall....and it looks to continue.

The base state argument is what we should hang our hats on, imo. Why would we expect anything less than an Aleutian ridge/WAR combo that helps to continue the +NAO avg throughout the winter months? We have been the recipients of this horrid setup even when everything else says we shouldn't. This year says we should see this setup even if it wasnt the background state.

Almost 10 days out...I am fine with the gfs. It seems to be making baby steps each run in the right direction. We have gotten rid of the GL low that was on earlier runs and now made a move toward more HP in SE Can.

Yeah....Either the gfs is up to its usual games or the idea of blocking in that region is just being picked up on again as we get closer. H180 is even more robust...

Most, if not all frozen...

06z EPS with another incremental nudge in the right direction...A tick slower so will have to keep an eye on that trend as well. 06/00z

yeah...much better CAD signal....stronger high that holds on longer. The clown maps are misleading I think because it slowed things down just a bit and the run ends at 144...as you noted.

GFS not backing down on the mega NAO block as we near D10. A sight to see for sure.....

Got it...much appreciated. So, in determining the general idea of where the split flow is....flowing, you are looking for where the height lines deviate from that uniform look?

Curious...whats your take on the 06z GEFS? Same timeframe....with a more robust signal cutting under the ridge.

I know PSU and Bob have mentioned this several times..But that look at the end of the EPS run with the bagginess off the west coast and a signal that the STJ is undercutting the PNA ridge is money. LR caveats and all...but man that is a nice look.

06z gfs goes bonkers over GL....Seems we are getting some consensus on a stout NAO block that fades into an EPO ridge. But, it could just end up being a ridge bridge longer than what is currently depicted. Also notice a nice uptick in hits as the the NAO fades and EPO takes over. The looks across the board have me drooling! ETA: Trough axis on the LR EPS is sweet. Starts at hr300 and hold through the end of the run.

Little bit of a CAD in that image! Check out the ridging across GL at the same time...