poolz1

What professional forecasting outfit responds to a guy with 66 followers like this? No Pro met can get a fair shake in here or on social but this is just some JV shit if you ask me.

Probably not. Another way you can tell we are snow-starved is every post contains a reverse psychology P.S. sentence! How about that block on the 18z GEFS....lawdy!

It would be perfect, man. Just what we need...something that is not too complicated and gets us all to a warning level event. Cold smoke verbatim... Actually, a pretty good real world type of system for the pattern being depicted on the ens.

Def an encouraging look from the eps. Closed ridge over baffin even at D15 and a beast 50/50 signature at the same time....trough backing into the east coast and certainly a colder run.

The forecasted -NAM still seems pretty bullish. Honestly, this is about the time of year I stop even looking at enso or even strat. This years warming event has kept me interested a little longer. But, as you know, any large scale change to a pattern driver has a lag effect too long for me to care much. lol.

It seems like the models have been teetering on the edge of that look for days....EPS finally took the bait. All teles on the EPS are trending the wrong way in the very LR. I wonder if the return to a classic base state look is in response to the AO/NAO going neutral or if blocking starts to fade due to the return of the base state look? The response to the SWE and propensity for blocking so far leads me hedge my bet that that look on the EPS gets can kicked for a while.

You would think one of those PAC SW's should give us a moderate snowfall in the LR. Blocking, 50/50s, plenty of cold and multiple pieces of energy coming into the Pac NW. Some get sheared....some get suppressed but multiple opportunities. Ens picking up on this as well.

If the gfs just went out 450 hours....

Well @nj2va wanted upslope...he just got his fantasy HECS! Would be epic.....

Para looking pretty good so far....

Yeah, its not like we have good confluence to the north to block a west track or coastal hugger. A delicate setup where we have hit it just right....what else is new?

Very similar to what the ICON just spit out. So close to a phase or at least enough interaction to bring it further NW and expand the precip shield. Two decent runs imo.

I thought the NAM actually looked promising early on. ULL further north, less confluence and appeared to be a north shift. Then it just gets its face shoved in the sand by the vort coming down from the north. Cant wait until we can extrapolate for the 1/11 threat.

GEFS are pretty adamant that the coldest anoms in the NH shift to NA in the LR. Not saying its good or bad for snow prospects but its impressive to see how quick the extreme cold fades across east Asia and forms in NA. Cross polar flow stole it right out from under them....

One more pic! Impressive how much the EPS looks like the op at H5.

Good burst of rain, sleet and a few flakes.... up to 37

Ha! 33 and rain is all too common in the MA but torrential rain and 33 is something I havent seen very often.

Got up to 33 yesterday and stayed there all day. Minor ice on the underbrush and pines. Def over an inch but havent measured the spillover from the 1" mark yet. Creek almost came out of its banks after the heavy burst yesterday eve. Soggy, muddy mess...

If it happens I say we officially dub this the @frd storm. lol! j/k

BWI: 17.5" DCA: 11" IAD: 20.5" RIC: 5.5" SBY: 11"

Agreed. I dont see how we avoid significant bouts of a very unfavorable pac.... We'll be constantly teased with models showing an eastward progression of the MJO and therefore a better looking long range signal in the Pac. At least in this weenie mind, trying to find a silver lining, the 2 main features that seem to stick around on ensembles are the low heights west of the Aleutians and the higher heights in the Scan region. If we can maintain the features somewhat, maybe we can periodically offset what will be occurring in the Pac. Keeping the PV in check and giving us bouts of HLB. As the MJO tries to push into more fav areas, dies and then reemerges over unfavorable areas....these occurrences may be our windows of opportunity this winter? Or, maybe nothing works out as planned (like last year) and we end up with these looks on the regular!

I thought the EPS showed some glimmers of things trending the right way as we near the middle of Nov. Maybe starting with the Pac....all caveats, obviously. I am willing to kick the can a little down the road with any decent pattern. If we truly end up with a front loaded winter...I dont want to waste our only HLB on mid/late Nov.

The AO and NAO have been negative for roughly the past two weeks and this was telegraphed nicely by the ens, imo. Neither the GEFS nor the EPS are forecasting any HLB for the foreseeable future. Not arguing the fact that phantom blocking periods have not been an issue the past year+ but I dont think we can say the same yet for this cold season. Head fakes and magnitude issues are always going to happen with LR ens guidance.

Not snow but it would be plenty cold for some powder! Perfect weather to wake up with a cup a coffee and raid the kids candy bags.

Funny, the euro has this winter forecasted to turn out the same as last winter yet had the opposite forecast this time last year. Though, maybe the climate models have a better chance at being somewhat accurate with what looks like a typical atmospheric response to the current enso state...unlike last year. I am fully prepared for fluke hunting this season. Whatever. Work is pouring in and a mild winter would be extremely helpful.