poolz1

I think if we saw a cross section profile of the Pac in that region it would help with the chicken/egg debate. If it’s strictly surface warmth...the predominant surface pressures probably are to blame. If the warmth has depth to it....maybe it is driving the pattern. Am I wrong in that assumption? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

31.2 for the low this morning. Nice!

32.6 when I left the house at 5am....will have to check this eve it actually hit the freezing mark. Heavy frost.... The weed line is officially defeated.

Reading between the lines a bit....Looks like a quick start to winter, a pull back in Jan (but doable) and then a classic el nino Feb/Mar

Yep...splitting hairs on a 46 day lead is probably pointless as it will change by Thursday. Check out the control run....wants to put a lot of snow cover down across the CONUS. Let's pick apart the control run now!

Idk....I thought the weeklies looked fine thru the end of the run. First week in Nov looks classic....the last week in this cycle shows the same pattern just washed out...as an ens would be that far out. We also need to start a digital snow thread....per the 00z gfs. I do like seeing some coastal storms starting to show up.

lol...

Winter preview?

Yep...another big difference between 02 and now is the presence of much gradient in the Pac....in all of the important regions. I see yellows and oranges in rights places but I think lack of gradient between +/- SST anoms is also key if we want features to show up and be prominent in the right spots. Did some reading a few weeks ago on the Walker Cell and how the gradient in the Pac during an enso event can affect the cell's circulation....not just the strength of the enso but the gradient involved. I dont know enough about the subject to comment further...so there's that. I am curious tho as to how this plays out....

I know your overall feeling toward long range models and rightfully so...what is interesting is the pretty much unanimous idea of -epo. A good sign having it show up as we get deeper into fall. I hope the other areas of HLB being shown start to show up in a regular fashion as we head into November. Get a jump start on an epic winter! Snow on Thanksgiving? We can dream.... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Noticeable change in humidity the past 20 minutes. I have to admit....I rather be engulfed in tropical rains right now. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Yep...so close to scoring with this one. SE of 95 looks to be in for a real deluge. Its almost painful to watch the radar down in VA....

Completely agree...western side is drying up as the front pushes in. I was hoping that the circulation would hold the front up just a bit and allow a more nw movement of the rains. Radar actually looked like that was happening an hour or so ago. I love tropical rains but they are so rare....out this way especially. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Pretty nice cluster of tropical rains developing and pushing north toward central/western areas. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I watch it every time it's posted....miss that guy.

That's a pretty sig spike getting ready to occur....if the Euro is correct. Yea...new euro seasonal looks beautiful...even better than the Sep run imo.

Great pics...especially the fox! Usually skittish creatures unless you are in a suburban neighborhood or close to town....really cool picture!

Man! Look at that hook echo south of Pittsburgh and another to the east. Like something out of Kansas... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Give us this same MJO in Nov and winter starts early. IMO, we are right where we should be....though the over amplified nature of the pattern is a bit extreme. As you said, SOI continues it’s fall and the MJO is taking a tour of 8,1 & 2 then back to the COD which is not cold this time of year.... Maybe we are seeing where the MJO wants to set up this season as the elnino comes on? It’s kind of like the banter on here about snow in October being a dagger for winter...coldest phase in Oct is 5, iirc. Give us a phase 5 during the winter months and it’s close the blinds. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

@showmethesnow I am sure you have already taken a look but Jan looks pretty classic as far as precip distribution goes. Dec also with +precip anom but looks more OH Valley centered and Feb almost looks like suppression being the only month with a negative precip anom ...

That system off Cal has KU written all over it....

Looks to be very close....Crest early tomorrow morning roughly 1' above yesterday's peak

Wow!