poolz1
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Everything posted by poolz1
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Weaker because the NS is pressing down on the southern sw...no? Has no room to amplify and gets squashed/sheared a bit
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It will take a bit to get some real cold back into the pattern after this relax coming up. Not that there wont be enough to work with under the right conditions but no true cold building in Canada. The end of the EPS run looks primed to get the process started in week 3...possibly the end of week 2. Weeklies have been tough to gain anything from recently but I'm still interested in their take on wk 3/4 tonight. They have a good 00z run to base it off of....00z lost the closed blue ball over the pole, more trough S of the Aleutians and heights trying to poke into AK and further N.
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Having everything (except for the gfs op) drastically NW of the Euro 12z run was a bit of a red flag. C NC to C VA the big winners this run. NC/SC boarder winners at 12z.
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HP to the N not as strong... Precip shield has more of a NE trajectory instead of due east...should make it further N this run
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FV3 has the same NS vort but just didnt dive in like the op. Seems like we have had slight pos trends early in the 18z runs....just minor adjustments in that NS system produce major changes.
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Appears so far away from a hit but man...that sw (that @Bob Chill noted) wasnt even there at 00z...showed up at 6z and has trended slower/stronger. I doubt that one small piece of NS energy is done changing 6/7 days out.
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A few subtle but positive changes so far imo....little stronger sw/better ridging out front and a little less confluence.
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EPS were certainly south and not as many hits in there but the ones that are hits and the close calls are pretty robust...go big or go home run with a hedge toward go home. lol
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Plenty of moisture...Shen Valley gets clobbered
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lol...big hit
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TT tidbits has GEFS under Ensembles.....and EPS thru 240
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Dont know if gefs are rushing things or not but the pattern certainly improves late in the run...
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Closing of at h5 so early is a new trend with the gfs today...delay that 6-12 hrs?
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Almost an identical track as 00z but nothing to get the precip shield to blossom to the N...or tug the slp N. Wouldnt take much tho for a good forum wide hit...
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For any wxbell user who have been frustrated....hopefully this fixes the issues. █ Important Notice: Between December 8th and December 15th, WeatherBell Analytics will transition all data generation and map systems into the Google Cloud. This move will improve the overall reliability of our data and map services, offer some speed and delivery enhancements, and allow for more expansive product development. Because this upgrade will involve changes to our realtime systems, an exact date and time will be provided in subsequent updates and is contingent on weather conditions during the timeframe.
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True...I hear you. They can certainly junk up a good thread. Woe is me posts, lr snow maps, relentless complaining and panic are a dime a dozen every season. Is what what it is....but they will continue and so will the relentless attempt to minimize them.
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The sincere concern on this forum for everyones mental wellbeing is heartwarming. What would jimbob2162 do without rerun24 instructing him to temper his excitement? I shudder to even think of the possibilities....
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Just the orientation of the snowfall maps look so similar to 09. Completely agree that with that setup, nobody in the are is getting fringed. I recall right up to game time in Dec 09 it appeared mby would be "fringed" with 10-14" with jackpot amounts further south...ended up with 22". Such a long ways to go with this one but it's tough not to think big with the setup being depicted....
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A crushing...regardless of what the surface maps say..
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A classic look for a MA mauling....
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Nice looking at h5 at hr 180...def a different look than 12 and 18z
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Right or wrong...at least the FV3 doesn't jump 500 miles a run. Doesnt seem as prone to wild swings with major features.. Again, no idea of verification...
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@Bob Chill I picked through most of the members as well....it seemed to me that the key is having a decent high in the right place as a lot of the members that snowed had a low that runs inland of NC. Not the typical DC track unless you have a stout..banana high. Honestly it was a casual look at the members but something I noticed. Not that having a stout high in place for a good snow storm is news breaking but some of the runs have wavered with the strength this high.... A lot more goes into pulling this storm into a stout HP but its a good sign seeing a fair amount of the members having this classic look to the HP and placement.
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I would imagine that with the strength of that vortex once it moves just a hair west there would be a pretty strong reaction. It's one way to quickly replace any snow cover lost in Canada from the warm spell....You can just envision a serious EPO/PNA ridge that would pump plenty of heat poleward and put us into a pretty prolonged pattern of cold.
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I thought the EPS looked pretty decent for the 9/10th threat....a few more hits in there than 12z and not as many southern sliders.
