poolz1

Got it thanks... I haven't tried the favorites yet. I'll give it the benefit of the doubt for 30 days and try to get used to it.. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

Signed up for weatermodels. Com the other day just to see if I like it better than wxbell... Figured I'll risk the 20 bucks for one month and cancel if I didn't like it. Maybe I am missing something but Jeesh... Seems more difficult to navigate than wxbell. Beautiful maps but can he design something easy to navigate. Tropical tidbits is as simple as it gets... Doesn't seem too difficult to achieve. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

Maybe the muted signal in the lr has to do with the MJO losing amplitude and heading for a weak phase 3 and into the COD. Will be interesting to see (if the MJO forecast is correct) what our default pattern will be when we head into the cod. Again, if correct, it looks like we may get another tour of favorable phases as we head into December.

Looks like my memory of 4” was pretty spot on....even at 12 yo I didn’t slant stick! Lol

Subsurface warmth is there and one stout wwb should push this Nino to a solidweak status with moderate status very possible imo. The dominoes have already started to tumble when it comes to the Nino effecting the winter patern... One more look at the euro seasonal this week and then it's watching lr ens and chips fall mode. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

I grew up in the woods.....all oak trees and hated leaf removal. We would just let them fall, let the Nov winds whip the around into general piles and then get to work. Not a bad approach unless you have a wet mid/late Nov.

Wow!

Yeah, that band is legit... Relentless leaf stripper Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

In FDK right and it is pretty intense! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

Not a bad look to the gefs at 12z....would be nice to see eps come around to the same idea... Probably a case of the gefs rushing the pattern but it would a fun ride heading into late Nov with that look. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

Yeah....I do agree with you here. I guess my point was not necessarily to focus on a particular time period or strength of ridging around GL but more of its tendency to pop up on the op runs in the past week or so. Certainly well aware of the "poof it's gone" aspect of modeling in the NAO region....which makes it a maddening area to predict. Ops will jump around but these, imo, show that the tendency is there...for now at least..lol

Nice to see op runs not being shy at all with higher heights into GL. Unlike years where it is relentless blues and the rare pop of transient +heights. Hopefully a good sign as we head into late fall. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

Looks like it to me.....pretty much higher than normal heights over the pole from late November on....of varying strength. If the weeklies are correct in about a week we should see the ens start to pick up on the Aleutian low forming. I feel like that is the “foundation “ of this this winter....add in a subtropical jet that has some juice and some decent blocking periods....we are bound to fair pretty well.

Was just going to post. Weeklies seem pretty washed out early on....more than normal. My biggest takeaway is they at least seem to be agreeing with the the euro monthly for how December should shape up.

This is when the CCB started to set up over the area around 10am or so....4-6hrs of heavy snow that dropped 6-12" more than eastern areas. We were in a rare lucky sweet spot.

I wish I had that kind of memory....Sometimes I'm surprised at the setups to these memorable events when I look back at them. Boy that block in Dec '09 was insane! If I remember correctly there was a SSWE in mid/late Nov that year? @C.A.P.E. Yeah, I remember that dry slot over your area in '16. I measured 32" on the patio after the storm but my snowboard measurements added up to 35+. Not much wind out here with the storm. So hard to get blizzard conditions this far west except for the rare snow squall coming from the west. The second storm in 2010 did have blizzard conditions imby....one of the big reasons it ranks so high for me.

Amounts seem pretty uniform around the area... .88" here since yesterday afternoon. During winter we would be thrilled with an areawide 6-12" but a bit disappointed that the model runs of the stalled low at the mouth of the Ches didnt happen.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

What a block and what a storm....My #1 single storm experienced in person.....the back to back storms of Feb 2010 are a very close 2nd when it comes to just being in awe of the weather.

Yeah, I agree about the weeklies. Seems too familiar having that blue bulls eye planted in Greenland but at the same time a raging -epo. Workable for snow but also systems are frustrating tracking. On the other hand, a fairly consistent feature on the weeklies is the higher heights in the vicinity of the Kara Sea and at times pushing into almost east based block. Though the cold doesn’t show up as great on the panels...that’s a darn cold pattern starting in late Nov. Winter 18-19 pattern trying to find its place and evolving...a lot to be positive about so far.

If this were winter...last saturday we would have been saying..."the big ones are always sniffed out early". Models have been pretty much locked onto this for about 6/7 days out and there were rumblings about a big coastal from some mets almost 2 weeks ago. iirc, 2009 had a few good coastal rainers later in the fall.

I’m sure others can give a better description of the weeklies but here is mine... The current pattern relaxes with the trough pulling west through mid November and then as we head not December the aleutian low gets cranking again. Nice big -epo with some higher heights into the AO region but....a raging +nao. Personally, I’ll take what it’s showing...hopefully the NAO evolves and works with us as December wears on.

What a nice looking system on the gfs...if this were winter. It’ll be fun tracking regardless but anytime a sub 1000mb low tucked into VA Beach and stalling for 12+ hours shows up I can’t help but be a little upset this isn’t just 30 days later.

CMC never fails to impress...has a 967 low over @C.A.P.E. house. High elevation snows and 2-4" of rain over the region....gale/storm force winds. Will be fun to track the first coastal of the season!

That was a good read...thanks for posting. Unfortunately, I dont think there was a firm conclusion....unless I am missing something. Which is very possible as I am only on my first cup of coffee! It does sound like for the most part the +anoms were caused by SLP... "This development can be attributed to strongly positive anomalies in SLP, which served to suppress the loss of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere, and leads to a lack of the usual cold advection in the upper ocean." But then the very next line..."The extra mixed layer heat persisted through the summer of 2014 and may have represented a significant contribution to the unusually warm summer (in some locations record high temperatures) observed in the continental Pacific Northwest." On a side note...it looks like the SOI is back in negative territory after a pretty good stretch of positives. ENSO has cooled a bit in all areas...especially 1+2.