poolz1
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Everything posted by poolz1
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Not bad...Was just looking at the gefs...a nice trend. Not quite there yet but you can see how it's possible to back into this and score something.
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Icon still likes the 5th... iirc, the icon was pretty firm with the follow up wave that became our Nov snow storm... What does it mean? Nothing probably.. Lol Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk
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Looks like the euro lost all of our confluence over NE....does this NS system affect the confluence or was this both a "new" NS system and a lack of a transitory 50/50 to create the confluence needed...like 00z run? Just curious...
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Thanks psu...reading her twitter feed was like nails down a chalkboard. She certainly thinks highly of herself and likes to play twitter police with everyone else.
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It does seem like the gefs has been pretty good at picking these event up...I am certainly new to this strat stuff and learning a bit more every season. Your posts certainly help...
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GEFS have def been picking up on a renewed warming in the strat. The past few runs have been increasing warming in the LR...you can see the progression below with the D7 current warming, D13 cooling and then D16 renewed warming at 10mb.
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Just an observation....I actually kept an eye on the FV3 leading up to the most recent storm in Chicago to see how it performed as far as track goes. It really seemed to run lockstep with the Euro with further N track putting Chi in the warm sector. Regular GFS was flatter...what we would typically expect to see from both models. Eventually, the tracks merged and Chicago go nailed. Certainly not anything scientific just a casual observation.
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A pretty sweet looking panel right there....Lets get a more robust version of that at day 5 and have some fun tracking!
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Long track storm at the end of an anomalous cold period? Pretty big piece of energy coming into the west coast for models to track...This same piece is evident by hr 90 on the GFS. D10 Euro has "that look." In a perfect world we would get a nice 1-3/2-4 appetizer on roughly the 5th and then 4-6 days later we get a real taste of an el nino winter storm.
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So many ifs with the D10 potential...but a lot of positives and potential right now... As @WxUSAF noted...the Dec 5th potential trended much better. FV3 has a similar idea to the CMC of after the first cutter we have several weaker waves instead of just another cutter or two. Models are going to have a tough time separating the weaker waves and keying in on any details until probably short range time... At least this solution would put us in the game for a light event or two...
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Interesting...You can almost see the setup now. 3rd/4th week of Dec thru 2nd week of Jan...relax....Feb 10th thru end of Feb. These are rough but the deeper we get into winter the shorter the period is between optimal mjo periods and also...8-1-2 is money in Feb...
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Uncanny, how similar this most recent progression is to the last one....almost right on top of the last movement thru 8-1-2. As the season wears on, this should produce better and better results as far as sensible weather goes....especially phase 2
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It's pretty amazing how well the models pick up on losing the Aleutian trough when they predict the MJO losing amplitude and heading for the COD. Not that they are correct on either...but, as we head deeper into winter the COD should represent a typical modokiish nino pattern I would think....8-1-2 represent a magnified version. Relaxes more brief and dulled than advertised 12+ days out..
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lol....just got a puppy a few days ago. Black lab. Watching him chew on his foot right now...which is a good analogy for post 240 gfs...at hour 300 the gfs falls off it's bed and wets itself.
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Hopefully the 18z is correct in the sense that we have weak to mod systems that slowly drag a boundary south. Didnt work out this run but pressing cold with systems running a slowly sagging boundary can work out if timed correctly...maybe our best hope for the upcoming 2 weeks...
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A little ridiculous? Or fits the pattern? Not too often you see even an op run show pretty much every sqft of the lower 48 below normal...
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Had a decent amount of ice on the pines and underbrush....which is pretty much melted now. 1.08" so far but the creek is roaring...thinking the ground was just frozen enough to allow a lot to run off. 33.6/32
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Not even Dec 1st and already a legit WSW event and a WWA tonight...though, my expectations are pretty low. I feel like if we can score something...anything, while the pattern is not perfect it would be a good sign as we head into better climo. Those great winters tend to do that....
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I think most...it not all of that is from the system tomorrow and TT's algorithm. But, something to keep an eye on while we wait....
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What system, Chuck?
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Both GFS and FV3 with a positive trend for the D7 system. Little more of a discrete wave with some minor ridging in front... @losetoa6 storm! Hopefully trends will continue...not too far from something to track.
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Thanks...much appreciated... You obviously have a skill...I can click a button! I still love documenting weather events...
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A few from our Jeb walk on a snowy Nov day...
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A WinterWxLuvr special....
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FaVorite3 looking similar to the old fart GFS with the D10-12 storm..50/50 moves along but doesnt tuck it's tail and sprint like the GFS.
