poolz1
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Everything posted by poolz1
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Maybe it's weenie logic but it seems to me we have received 3 major EC storms in 30 days. All 3 have been moisture laden and had strong ULL support passing south of us. 1st one was our early season snow/ice event, 2nd was a major snow/ice maker that went just south and the 3rd is occurring now but does not have an airmass to work with. It's just a matter of time as the pattern progresses.... Regardless of the pattern it seems the stj is for real and will continue to provide chances with big upside....
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Here you go.... http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html
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It's a beaut Clark...Just missing the 1042 arctic high over southern Ontario https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northpacific-08-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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Was just looking at the latest MJO plots...Euro and GFS wants to stall in phase 4 at the end of their runs.... Hoping we get into 5 and just keep moving along or just head into the COD and reemerge into favorable phases.
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Not pretty...but maybe some positives can be taken regarding the christmas-ish storm? Better ridge axis this run...50/50 in better position. A few adjustment and it would be a whole dif outcome....
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Coldest morning of the season... low of 14
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It close.....You're obviously missing the little innocuous s/w up in Tuktoynukville that will tail whip it down to the Carolinas....
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Only when it's warm....
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I understand it's a LR prog but it is an ens. If comparable neg 850 temps were forecasted over the east at that range we would consider it to be highly impressive for an ens run. Just more evidence the PV will probably not fully recover at all this winter....the hits keep coming and this one could be the real deal.
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It could be the I-40 wall for all I care....as far as MBY goes. I will be in DC tomorrow for the skins game...I'm sure it will feel and look like snow. Would be great to a period of light snow during the game....probably a stretch though.
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Ha! True....Im not picky either...only when I daydream. Give me a high of 33 with astroids and I'll be just as happy.
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06z Euro...for those interested
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I love the big storm chances for this season but I am hoping we get a few "normal" snow storms. I loved the storms of 13/14. Being on the right side of a pressing arctic airmass with a juiced stj slamming into it. Cold powder where every flake counts and the overrunning precip breaks out 3-4 hours before any model indicated... Daydreaming a little but if we get any of these type of storms, Jan looks to be our best bet I think.
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It could be the typical Euro bias of trying to dump cold into the west and then dragging it's heels in moving the trough eastward. Not discounting the idea but if it does occur I think its most likely all part of the shift. Just like when the AK blue ball was showing up at the end of the runs...a menacing look but in reality its just part of the progression. EPS has also been growing colder at the end of its runs...0Z being the coldest yet. A good sign that we will have cold working back into the pattern sooner rather than later.
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Warm feet > Warm hands.....and a warm head is pretty crucial. Love working in the cold....Nothing better than working outside on a cold, crisp day with high cirrus moving in before a snowfall....
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Hammers/staples and cold fingers = a bad combo. Ha! 23/16 currently
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Rushed? Possibly....but this has the look of serious cold getting involved with the pattern in time. Ridge near the Kara sea popping at the same time the EPO ridge is about to get a serious roids injection with the Aleutian trough getting into a prime position. If it was not a nino, I would be concerned about cold/dry but I think the stj will give us the goods... got a warm cozy feeling about Jan...especially after the 5th or so for snow possibilities....tho, I'm not discounting scoring something between now and then.
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If we all lived in ROA we would highly impressed with model consistency. Sure there have been a few models here and there that spit out hope in the past 48 hours but this is a big storm and models have done a pretty good job. We are about out of luck, imo. I understand that weather can do what it wants and i'll continue to watch every run with hopes for a hail mary but the writing is on the wall.... If 0z gives no obvious shift in the features needed....I'm out....until Friday happy hour!
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Off and on light snow the past hour. Looks like I may catch the southern edge of a decent little band heading SE...
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Flow is really backing on the east coast at hour 120!
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@Eskimo Joe
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Who knows if they are correct but WOW @ the weeklies run! Pretty panels every week after week 2
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Dont know if you use Tropical Tidbits...so maybe you already know this but its the best site toggling back and forth between runs. Really allows you to pick up on subtle differences.
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Both 0z and 12z op had a low within that western envelope and failed to get preip to our lat. Im sure the precip shield is lacking a bit with that setup but probably not much imo. The slp gets to a position that is typically good for us but only because it has already cutoff, stalled and crept NNE... I wonder if the real issue is the southern starting point of the souther s/w and the only way for that to work is to relax the confluence overall...not just the NS vort we have been focusing on?
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FV3 is a bit weaker with the NS @96....heights bumped up a little as a result. Confluence a little weaker overall...
