poolz1
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Everything posted by poolz1
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Like you said, grasping a little here but the Euro and the GFS have the same ULL entering Cali and trying to make its way across under the ridge. I actually thought the 6z GFS was going to do something with it but the ridge just gets bullied east and squashes it.
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The end of the 06z GFS run is how I would hope to see things evolve and seems like a realistic evolution. Not every detail of course. Significant GL block develops, it takes several cutters and NS systems to feed the developing 50/50ish low. Eventually, the vortex trapped under the GL block becomes the dominant low compared to the one in the GOA/west coast. I don't see the GOA low vanishing but with ebbs and flows we get PNA spikes of varying degrees.
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Low of 11 and currently 12.
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Not enough to coat but a nice mod snow for a few minutes. Blustery, roof blizzards and sideways snow squalls. I like days like today. Looks like a few more coming from the NW. 20/9
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2.25" 23/15 Beautiful winter morning.
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.25" or so. Mod snow. 33/29
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Exactly my thoughts. Getting a system to take a track south of us may be asking a lot but any HP to the north should be a legit airmass.
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With such a narrow "win" zone it is going to be tough to please everyone. I'll hug the 18z euro because it is the best run for NW zones so far. Not going to jack out this way, just trying to get in on the action and have if look like winter.
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The temp crash during the day Sunday on the euro is pretty impressive. FDK is 32 at 4am and 18 at 1pm with a gusty NW wind.
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First single digit temp of the season. Currently 9.6/5 wish we had some snow cover up this way.
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I just got to work in Frederick after getting on 340 there by the bridge to Harpers Ferry. One of the worse drives I have had in a while. Bet I saw a dozen accidents.
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Well, that warm nose didn't take long at all. To be expected I guess. 100% sleet currently.
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Mod snow with good size flakes. Solid coating. 32/28
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Same here with a dp of 20. Not a bad airmass but I expect 3-4 degree bump when the clouds roll in. Hoping we can get a few hours of a winter wonderland tomorrow morning.
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Solid car and mulch topper. First measurable snow of the season on a gusty southerly wind.
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That's great to hear. The difference at day 12-15 between the GEFS and EPS is pretty significant. EPS is actually starting to get the look of its own weeklies forecast from a few weeks ago.
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I dug into the details too! lol I'll live in fantasy model land as much as I want.
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Give me the set up at the end of the Can run last night. Endless overrunning into a stout HP. I think these set ups only occur on model runs though.
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18z Euro would probably be a decent hit west of the fall line. Nice SLP track, just need a better HP position for everyone to win. Although it is stronger and and in a better spot than 12z.
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The quick rebound of the PV was forecasted weeks ago when the Euro Ext was first showing signs that there may be a reversal. I recall noting that before the end of the forecast period it appeared to rebound to around normal. Not sure how much this really matters tho. MJO possibly in 8-1 and a normal PV strength.
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Nice to see the GEFS today at the end of its ens run show the pattern the weeklies have been showing. Always the risk of a can kick. My biggest concern has been that the trough gets stuck in the west and delays the cold coming east. Seems that risk is slowly decreasing. The 5-10th once cold is established it may be game on.
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31.4 for the low with heavy frost. Should have covered some of my late season greens. Had to end at some point I guess.
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1.48" for the event. Didn't expect a soaker like this but I can't say I have been paying close attention in the days leading up.
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2" on the nose from two rounds last night. Saw the classic trampoline in the middle of a farm field on the way to work this morning. Pretty solid storm.
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1.66" here. 10.23" for the month. I'd be perfectly happy to go back to tracking the drought.
