FXWX

Actually think that's a distinct possibility! Almost like the 18z gfs is bit of an over correction of its recent more westward trend compared to the flat euro. While a complete phase could yank this further north & west as this run implies, I'd look for the gfs to trend eastward in its next run. Not sure confluence and blocky nature off to the north may argue for a more south / east track when all is said and done...

I couldn't care less if they never posted the CMC or UkMet again... Seriously, I've never waited to see them before finalizing a forecast! Lol

would think so... when it does, it might be the proverbial dam break!!!

All we can do is look at the extended guidance and comment about how it has historically behaved... nothing wrong with that. I agree that the look is one I would draw up as favorable for winter storm action. If it fails and becomes unfavorable in the coming days, nothing we can do about it... I don't know how many times we can continue rolling the dice without eventually hitting the jackpot...

No worries... It's just all the aliens heading back to their home planet... Probably due to the lack of snow!

Always lots of moving parts in the school decision process. My role is to try to give a solid forecast, highlight and discuss trends, as well as error potential, and most importantly field questions about timing, road conditions, etc... Between 4 am and 5 am I conduct 6 conference calls (mainly by county) with a total of approximately 90 districts; lots of input and discussion between districts. As you know, there are times that some towns feature tremendous variability within the town due to major elevation differences. Some setups are simple and no brainers? Like an event that is underway prior to morning commuter period, or will start later in the morning or afternoon. Most bus rounds take about 2 hours to complete and a lot can change during the 2 hour period. This past Dec. 5 event was interesting in that we had almost 100% agreement on delays, but then there was a period of enhanced snowfall rates in some areas between 6:30 and 8 am at which time several DPW groups were not confident they could get all roads in good shape by the bus roll time, which forced some delays to be converted to closures even though snowfall ending time had not changed... I thought the article today did a good discussing many of the issues in play...

Give him another 2 years of these winter trends and he will upgrade to "f*CK this sh*t" as he slams the iPad on the floor.. lol

I don't disagree with your reasoning, so it comes down to personal confidence that the probability is high enough to insert it into a 6 day forecast? At this time, I would say no. That's for a public forecast. In discussions with my private clients (dpw and or maintenance contractors) I've thrown that out there as a low threat period but have not been bullish. If a northerly trend were to develop over the next 48 hours, I would then elevate the concern; still minor though.

Well, almost anything is possible, but if you were a forecaster who was responsible for a "public" forecast, how would you word your forecast? Is the possibility high enough to insert into the forecast??? You need to quantify the potential for the public get a sense of confidence? How would you quantify the threat for 1-3" on Monday? Is it great enough to insert into a public forecast? And remember, once you say the possibility exists for 1 to 3", the vast majority of the public, only see the word Snow and 3"??? Is the potential high enough to insert into the forecast? I'm ok with saying a "low-grade" risk of some light snow exist but would not mention any amounts.

Forecasting these nw to se tight gradient with solid mixing events is so much easier to verify than when we chase those pain in the ass southerly high wind events that often have inversion issues.

It's pretty simple right now... Can't have the PV sitting where the majority of the models (model consensus) have it and expect anything major to get in here. I always thumb through the Kocin book to look for any decent similar events; using the 72 hr prior to the event maps. Using the Friday into Saturday progged 500 mb period as my 48-72 hr starting point, can't find a good match; a couple of teasers but they all have the PV considerably further west or north at the 72 hr from onset period. Will need to see a decent west or north trend of the PV develop soon. That doesn't mean we can't have some light accumulations if confluence decreases a bit.

Will... One of these days you're going to get yourself banned for being too rational... Lol...

10.0 here at ~1,200' off a 4.0 morning low...

Pretty amazing!

If it verifies, it would certainly open the door to northern stream energy digging further south than we've seen in quite a few years? Will see how the next several days trend.

About 1-inch hear...

Never take measurement comments seriously. I assume the vast majority of them are made good heartedly... As was mine. You did sit in one of the better thin bands as good lift crossed your area. My grandkids on the Cape are elated to see the current snow pounding down.

Lol... Just having a bit of holiday fun, Kev. I never doubted you... I know you take your snow seriously... And actually had others in that general area northeast into Stafford report the same amount. If I was really busting you I would have posted that you sawed the rule off at the 1" mark; lol. If we don't chat again soon, have a great holiday and get ready for a fun January...

Would love to see a verification photo?

I grew up in New Britain, CT (south-central Hartford County). Even that area did well during many of the 50's and 60's winters. Moved to Burlington in 1979. These days the 1,200' elevation certainly helps... While I was young, I remember the 1960-61 period well... Love the Lindsey Day storm of 1969... Hard to beat the 78 storm in my book; Organized a neighborhood supply hike to get baby food since we lived on street with lots of babies and couldn't travel by car. Several sleepless nights due to the drone of payloaders clearing streets... Great memories... Have a great holiday period.

Hey Jerry... Agree. You're also right about the age! One thing about our age bracket is that we have been able to experience the incredible seismic changes in the observational and forecasting sides of weather over the past 65 or so years. Also, we got to live, depending where you grew up, through some historic winters; temperature-wise even more so than storm-wise. Stay well...

I hear ya... When I was in high school I purchased a radio facsimile that I could receive the all the latest upper air plots and hourlies from ME to NC... I thought I was in heaven! I remember they started sending the LFM model (went out 48-hrs) maps just prior to the 1978 blizzard! Forecasting was never the same; lol

Ignorance was bliss back in the day! Depression and disappointment were what happened in the 24-hr run up to a storm event when you noted negative trends in the latest 500 mb analysis (often hand plotted), or during the onset period of the storm when obs from the Middle Atlantic indicated a snow to rain flip was likely, or the track might be trending too far east for big snows!!!!! While many on this board we're not around to "enjoy" the low information era, it had its pluses!

I think we can start getting excited for far southeastern Mass / Cape. Although the increasingly dynamic look to the short wave could open the door to a westward adjustment, which in turn could trend the Cape warmer? At least a trackable event for a portion of SNE...

Forget the fine details when using the NAM but don't dismiss it's large-scale feature trends. Still enough time for this trend to play out more favorable, and given its now just at the range of better sampling, keep an open mind on the NAM trends. Personally with 2 snow starved grandkids on the Cape I'd be perfectly ok with a southeast Mass special...