It’s August 3rd lol. It’s usually dead around this time. Rather than focusing on that, I think it’s more instructive to note that despite some objectively favorable windows, the basin did not produce. I think you could say that in a season where the tenor is active, 96L & 97L probably would have developed. That said, Don overperformed.
I think August 15-31 is as critical a period for the overall season as any August window in recent memory. Without significant activity there, I think it’d be hard for the AN forecasts to verify given the niño.
I still don’t think this is a cut and dry BN season yet given the mix of active and inactive signals. I think I’d lean slightly below normal currently, but normal and slightly above seem reasonable forecasts to me as well right now.