WxWatcher007

It has been a very good summer. Aside from the rain, maybe nothing high end, but it has been active, which I’d prefer over one interesting day and boring all the rest (unless it’s tropical)

Meanwhile, we’ll whine about temps and dews. I’m such a weenie. I literally went on a 5,000 mile storm chase a month ago and had two FF events imby and I want more. I’m ill.

Yeah, I don’t think this is one of those days where cloud cover throws a big wrench into things. Like EJ said earlier, I think it’s more likely the soundings are oriented a little differently than initially proved but don’t see evidence of that either currently. It’s a hurry up and wait kind of day.

They actually have to produce but man what a day it could be down there. I was just in DC

Honest to God can’t believe DC got high end severe 48 hours before I arrived and has a moderate risk 72 hours after I leave. I’m cursed

Yes, definitely a three until Ellinwood cancels his chase or EJ goes all in. Literally mirroring a moderate risk lol.

Oh there’s an EML on the table tomorrow? That would explain it I think. I’ve been so busy I admittedly haven’t looked deeply.

Can I ask a dumb question? Is it possible the 45% for DC is partially based on what you all saw last week? As in, we see a stronger wind forecast this time given what the last setup produced?

I wouldn’t ignore the fact that it’s not a more “trusted” tropical model. I do think it’s useful to see a modest signal for TC genesis on the ensembles, but it doesn’t look like a strong signal for a development window, which is obviously the first step.

It’s not much, but there could be a window for some W Atlantic development in the next 7-10 days with a weak signal on the ensembles. There are waves out there, it’s just tough sledding for anything to pop right now.

Today was pretty fantastic. Noticing the earlier darkness now and that’s a little sad, but soon football, fall, and tropical will be here.

Totally agree. I think the 15-31st period is critical.

It’s August 3rd lol. It’s usually dead around this time. Rather than focusing on that, I think it’s more instructive to note that despite some objectively favorable windows, the basin did not produce. I think you could say that in a season where the tenor is active, 96L & 97L probably would have developed. That said, Don overperformed. I think August 15-31 is as critical a period for the overall season as any August window in recent memory. Without significant activity there, I think it’d be hard for the AN forecasts to verify given the niño. I still don’t think this is a cut and dry BN season yet given the mix of active and inactive signals. I think I’d lean slightly below normal currently, but normal and slightly above seem reasonable forecasts to me as well right now.

Would love to get up to Camden Yards someday.

Great day to go to the park!

Looks like they were thorough. My neighborhood just missed out on that microburst lol. Obviously in hindsight I probably should have followed it but that’s really hard to do in an urban environment.

Hard to get one to ride up with a big trough there. I’d love to see one of those AEWs cross the Atlantic and pop as it’s rounding the flexing WAR in a few weeks. If there’s a window for us, I think it’s now to about Labor Day. After that…too many fronts IMO and Nino climo.

The season so far has been ahead or well ahead of climatology to date in virtually every metric. Even more so with niño climatology. I’m bearish on the season, but I still think we’re at a point where the season can go either way. August needs to produce, though. That’s absolutely critical.

For the ACATT crew. It’s coming.

Two invests in the Atlantic.

Not our region, but I just find this incredibly powerful. I’ve been to Arlington a few times and it’s always humbling. This is on another level IMO.

Awesome day. I came back home after the original storm mid-afternoon and didn’t plan to head back out. At around 6:15 or so I saw the discrete cell on RadarScope just to my north. I originally didn’t think much of it until it started to strengthen a bit. Nothing stood out on radar, but what was notable was while there was no lightning on the app, I had frequent thunder. I look outside my north facing window around 6:20 and there’s a clear darkening and updraft. Nothing special, but the updraft gets my attention and I go outside to do a time lapse. I could see rotation happening in real time as the storm crosses over the hill. After a few minutes, I get in my car and go to the top of the hill to look ENE. Rotation is still clear but messy, and I am a bit obstructed by trees. When I reposition on the hill to look more due east, it looked legit. The photos suck but I could see very clear definition of the storm aloft. Right after that I lost visual of the storm I headed to my spot to capture the line to the west roll through. The line did not disappoint. Great day here. Finished with 1.28” on the day with 12.80” now for the month. Banner month for me personally between the Midwest chase and some good storms and 2 FF events here.