WxWatcher007

Recon reports severe turbulence north of the center in the most recent VDM. Really have to see if this convective burst is enough to align the center and expel dry air. It looks robust enough to do it with sufficient time. You can easily see the dry air influence to the S and SW with arc cloud bursts.

It really took a beating. This is a really tough forecast and I wonder how many in the general public will take it seriously if it’s still a mess tomorrow and the track guidance keeps shifting.

Not much at home.

Importantly, tilted rather than fully decoupled.

A lot of spread.

Importantly, strengthening upon final approach. For the Texas crew following along, that’s far more impactful than if this were weakening as it did reaching the Yucatán.

I still think Corpus Christi is favored but honestly these north trends are significant. Hurricane models at 12z are split on how much Beryl recovers in the Gulf.

I’m not sure about landfall location yet, but I’m bullish. I think the combination of potential jet enhancement and frictional convergence near the coast could lead to a period of significant intensification. We of course have to see what it looks like after crossing the Yucatán, but any semblance of a core increases the chances it pulls itself together faster than anticipated. If shear is more pesky in the Gulf that could slow it down, but I don’t think that’s a high likelihood. That also reduces the likelihood dry air gets entrained in a meaningful way. One other thing to closely watch is the final approach heading. A more due north heading would have obvious implications on track and I believe intensity too. 12z spaghetti

The area between Brownsville and CC was where my mind was early today. I do still think we need to see what kind of core remains after Yucatán landfall. GFS Euro Spaghetti Hurricane models are all north, but not to the extent of the globals. These are just landfall points, but with a NW heading if this does get further north and scrape the coast I’d really watch for frictional convergence working to help organization and possibly intensification.

I know you’re looking at the 00z suite but the 18z EPS/Op were pretty significantly north (and quite strong) as well.

I get what Ryan is saying, but I’d caution against assuming all or even most other storms will be this resilient. Every system and environment is different.

12z Euro

Yeah on radar it’s ragged but clearly defined. Recon’s last VDM said the following but it keeps trying to rebuild. Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... EYEWALL BCMG MORE RAGGED, WEAKNESS TO THE NE IN ADDITION TO BEING OPEN ON THE WEST Agree—going back to what I said earlier about the convection, this really has seemed to help Beryl maintain a minimum level of inner core stability sufficient for reorganization whenever shear tries to rip the vortex apart.

Still quite unsure whether I will make the trip down to Texas. A lot of track and intensity uncertainty at relative short range given the angle of approach. Currently thinking this does end up a little stronger and further north, but we need to see what the structure looks like after the Yucatan. Currently looking at somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Probably need a little more time to narrow that zone. @40/70 Benchmark

Thanks. Still a lot of uncertainty in the Gulf. We’ll see what the 12z hurricane model runs think on intensity and track.

It has weakened of course but the resilience has been impressive. Having a solid inner core has really been key to keeping Beryl an over performer. We have not seen nearly the erosion you’d expect under that ribbon of high shear. I think the shear being analyzed has been lesser in magnitude than what some guidance expected. Even lower shear can take a toll over time, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens in the next day. One particular area of interest for me is convection. We’ve seen Beryl continue to fire deep convection that has been persistent enough to frequently wrap around the center, even if transiently. With very high OHC and SSTs on the path to the Yucatán, how much does this aid in maintaining the strength of the system? We will see how the landfall in the Yucatán impacts the core, as that’ll be critical to the intensity and track in the Gulf. It looks like there’s a decent consensus now, but it would not take much for slight shifts north or south. The Euro has maintained that this’ll be on the southern envelope of guidance. However, note that the stronger members are still further north. Meanwhile, much of the other guidance continues to settle further north, but the degree remains in question. Notably perhaps, many of this morning’s hurricane models shifted slightly north. We’ll see if that changes. Meanwhile other guidance is again near the border. The 00z super ensemble was further south of these models, but we’ll see if that changes at 12z. Any shifts, particularly with a NW heading likely, will have meaningful impacts.

The Euro run to run variation on intensity is just absurd. Much stronger on the western Gulf coast compared to 12z.

It’s great to have radar too to analyze any trends tonight/tomorrow.

Not entirely sure how the passes will take place, but the first recon of the evening has reached Beryl. Will be tricky with the northern eyewall over southern Jamaica.

Time limited image below but it’s clearly trying to reorganize as the eye is becoming more defined with a more symmetrical CDO. It has been extraordinarily resilient in the face of moderate shear present and dry air lurking. Perhaps some frictional convergence, missing the mountains of Jamaica, and over modeled shear helping right now. Even when the SFMR came down earlier, the winds above the deck were very strong.

5:00 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 Location: 17.5°N 77.6°W Moving: WNW at 20 mph Min pressure: 959 mb Max sustained: 140 mph

It has certainly weakened from peak, but it’s really something how resilient this has been.