WxWatcher007

The cell north of Middlebury, VT and west of Lake George, NY look like they have some modest rotation. Lake George one looks like it could pop a hook.

pick ‘em up & take ‘em down

From the SPC ...Northeast States... Water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough digging across the Great Lakes region, with the associated cold front sweeping across southeast Ontario and OH. Mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s ahead of the front, coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates shown on 12z raobs and model forecast soundings will yield a moderately unstable air mass by early afternoon (MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg). It appears thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon along the front - and in the free warm sector to the east. Vertical shear will be sufficient for a mix of multicell and occasional supercell structures, capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low level shear is strongest over Quebec, but may be sufficient over parts of VT/NY for an isolated tornado or two as well. Activity will sweep eastward across the ENH risk area through the early evening, before weakening as it approaches cooler marine-influenced air mass over eastern New England and NJ.

Enhanced risk just added by the SPC for part of New England. Still waiting for the update to the SPC text.

There’s a little signal for some early July activity, so maybe we keep the active start going.

It was me. I was leaving the board and wanted my account deleted by an admin. Then like a glutton for punishment I came back. Had no idea it’d totally nuke all the threads. Don’t know why you can’t sever the op from a thread.

Maybe. I’m not terribly enthused but that region is going to produce two TCs (including a regenerated Claudette) and fits climo, so I guess we do watch.

Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Although the center is well inland, Claudette has become better organized during the past several hours, with a large area of convection forming close to the center in the northern quadrant. In addition to this convection, a large area of rain bands is present over the eastern semicircle from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico northward into southeastern Tennessee Surface observation indicate that the maximum winds have decreased a little more and are now 25 kt, with these winds mainly over the Gulf of Mexico to the south of the center. Surface observations also indicate that the central pressure is 1005-1006 mb. The initial motion is still northeastward, but is a little slower than before, 050/12 kt. A turn to the east-northeast is expected during the next 6-12 h as Claudette moves in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the system across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next 36 h or so and then over the western Atlantic and toward Atlantic Canada with a significant increase in forward speed between 36- 72 h. The track forecast guidance remains tightly clustered and has changed little since the last advisory. So, the new forecast track is basically an update of the previous forecast, and it calls for the system to be near the coast of North Carolina at about the 36 h point. The intensity guidance continues to show a sizable amount of spread. On one side, the GFS has an ill-defined system reaching the Carolina coast in 36 h, with only minimal subsequent intensification after Claudette moves into the Atlantic. On the other side, the UKMET shows the central pressure falling below 1000 mb before the system reaches the Atlantic and winds exceeding 50 kt once the system is over water. The ECMWF and Canadian models lie between these extremes. The model forecasts do not show any strong baroclinic forcing that would lead to the level of intensification shown by the UKMET. On the other hand, the short-term trends in the cyclone's organization currently favor the stronger model forecasts. Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast is not changed much from the previous forecast, except for moving the time of dissipation up by 24 h as Claudette gets absorbed into a large extratropical low over eastern Canada. If the current trends continue, or later GFS runs forecast a stronger system, the intensity forecast could be adjusted upward in later advisories. It should be noted that even the weaker GFS solution brings 30-35 kt winds to the North Carolina coast near the 36 h point, and a tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of the current watch area on the next advisory. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, northern Alabama, and Georgia through tonight, and into the Carolinas on Sunday. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of this area early Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 32.6N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/1200Z 33.3N 84.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0000Z 34.2N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1200Z 35.4N 76.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0000Z 37.7N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 22/1200Z 40.8N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 44.5N 60.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Yeah—that one really surprised me when I saw the retired list. That had a wide ranging impact.

Top gusts per TWC New Orleans: 43 mph Mobile: 49 mph Gulfport: 59 mph Fort Morgan: 60 mph Pensacola: 81 mph

TS watches now up for the NC coast.

We do this all the time. Usually a low end TS doesn’t have the radar presentation of a Michael lol. They’re low end for a reason. This has a well defined center, is warm core, and producing observed TS conditions in multiple places. This kind of appearance fits climo for the Gulf in mid-June. It’s a tropical cyclone.

Pensacola reported a 51 mph wind gust.

It’s obviously lopsided, but Claudette looks decent this morning. We’ll see a pretty interesting evolution over the next few days, and Claudette will probably look better over land than it ever did in the Gulf before trying to redevelop into a tropical cyclone off the east coast. Should be an active couple days. Nice couplet west of Pensacola…

I don’t think the CAG will stick around, but it does look like there may be another Caribbean or Gulf window as another CCKW potentially passes through in early July.

Much respect to the Euro, as it caught onto the idea of a robust inland system while the other guidance played catch up, or in the case of the GFS, went to the sideline and threw up on itself What you’ll see the next few days is Claudette look better over land than it ever did in the Gulf as it organizes from a jet injection, before possible redevelopment into a tropical cyclone over the western Atlantic. Fascinating evolution, sucks it’s happening too far south for anything interesting here. Oh well.

As much as I love tropical, that’s not worth a chase.

Amen. Enjoy the time you have.

Don’t see anything that stands out to me on quick glance.

21 is a GREAT age. You bounce back from physical punishment like nothing. You begin the slow decline toward oblivion in your 30s

30

Up to 45mph at 2pm.

Eh, earlier in the week it looked better for us. Would need a northward shift to bring something more meaningful to SE NE.

Much better convection developing today as it approaches landfall—like the models suggested. Still lopsided, but better organized per recon.

Looks like we’re seeing a southward shift of the low once it’s inland. Could end up with nothing here.