WxWatcher007

Here's the first vortex message (VDM). I really want to see what happens when they sample the northern part of the core, which on radar looks to be a partial eyewall. So critical to have recon to resolve stuff like this. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 13:15ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number & Year: 05 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 12:56:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 12.98N 60.31WB. Center Fix Location: 49 statute miles (79 km) to the W (259°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,112m (10,210ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 255° at 3kts (From the WSW at 3mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 51kts (58.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the E (82°) of center fix at 12:44:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 62kts (From the ESE at 71.3mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 106 nautical miles (122 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 12:23:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 28kts (32.2mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WSW (245°) of center fix at 13:00:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 33° at 18kts (From the NNE at 20.7mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the W (265°) of center fix at 12:58:30ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,066m (10,059ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 1°C (34°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) which was observed 106 nautical miles (122 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) from the flight level center at 12:23:00Z

Interesting...basically 10mb higher than the estimate, and higher than the observed pressure in Barbados. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 13:10ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 2nd day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb Coordinates: 13.0N 60.3W Location: 48 statute miles (77 km) to the W (261°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. Marsden Square: 043 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1004mb (29.65 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 23.2°C (74°F) 255° (from the WSW) 3 knots (3 mph) 1000mb 37m (121 ft) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 23.1°C (74°F) 255° (from the WSW) 4 knots (5 mph) 925mb 723m (2,372 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 20.2°C (68°F) 165° (from the SSE) 8 knots (9 mph) 850mb 1,456m (4,777 ft) 18.2°C (64.8°F) 17.4°C (63°F) 195° (from the SSW) 10 knots (12 mph) 700mb 3,106m (10,190 ft) 11.8°C (53.2°F) 7.6°C (46°F) 45° (from the NE) 3 knots (3 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 12:56Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 12.99N 60.32W - Time: 13:01:14Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW) - Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW) - Wind Speed: 7 knots (8 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 1003mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 255° (from the WSW) - Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404

First sounding away from the center is fairly impressive. Recon en route to center which looks increasingly well-defined on radar. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 12:38ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 12Z on the 2nd day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb Coordinates: 14.0N 58.7W Location: 86 statute miles (139 km) to the NE (45°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. Marsden Square: 042 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1014mb (29.95 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.6°C (81.7°F) 24.0°C (75°F) 105° (from the ESE) 25 knots (29 mph) 1000mb 125m (410 ft) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 22.9°C (73°F) 110° (from the ESE) 32 knots (37 mph) 925mb 809m (2,654 ft) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 19.8°C (68°F) 120° (from the ESE) 46 knots (53 mph) 850mb 1,538m (5,046 ft) 16.8°C (62.2°F) 14.8°C (59°F) 125° (from the SE) 64 knots (74 mph) 700mb 3,171m (10,404 ft) 7.8°C (46.0°F) 6.9°C (44°F) 125° (from the SE) 66 knots (76 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 12:21Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 14.03N 58.79W - Time: 12:26:41Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 110° (from the ESE) - Wind Speed: 34 knots (39 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 120° (from the ESE) - Wind Speed: 56 knots (64 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 693mb to 1013mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 105° (from the ESE) - Wind Speed: 29 knots (33 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404

Hurricane Elsa Special Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa has become a hurricane, and this special advisory is being issued to update the first 36 h of the intensity and wind radii forecasts. More revisions of the intensity forecast are likely on the next regular advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently entering the hurricane, and a NOAA aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. There are no changes to the forecast track at this time. It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados and are expected elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning in other portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible over southern portions of Hispaniola on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1230Z 13.1N 60.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Probably will change, but the possibility is legit IMO. Stronger systems have had further west tracks on the ensembles and so far at least...this is verifying stronger.

Recon is descending into the hurricane now. Radar kind of shows it but the key thing here is how well-formed the inner core is, and secondarily IMO, how strong it actually is IMO. The more organized...the higher intensity ceiling...the higher intensity ceiling, the greater potential for a further west track...

Core hasn’t fully closed off, but clearly Elsa is not suffering terribly from the extreme forward motion. The environment later today and tonight might be even more favorable as all the guidance had some intensification/organization after the Antilles. It should be noted that SHIPS did highlight a higher than normal probability of rapid intensification and the GFS/HWRF’s bullish forecasts from 24-48 hours ago look to be much closer to reality than the other guidance. Doesn’t mean it’ll be right in future forecast points but it’s worth noting.

Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 745 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...ELSA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE... Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph, and the cyclone is now a hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the hour in place of the normal intermediate advisory. The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued Hurricane Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Lucia. The Meteorological Service of Barbados reported a sustained wind of 74 mph and a gust to 86 mph. SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 59.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF BARBADOS ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven/Latto/Zelinsky

Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 745 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...ELSA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE... Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph, and the cyclone is now a hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the hour in place of the normal intermediate advisory. The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued Hurricane Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Lucia. The Meteorological Service of Barbados reported a sustained wind of 74 mph and a gust to 86 mph. SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 59.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF BARBADOS ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven/Latto/ZelinskyHello

Elsa has become the first hurricane of the 2021 season.

Couple new microwave images to add. Definitely more organized but still more work to do. Recon will be telling.

Doesn’t matter much but that image actually underplays what would be a fairly significant coastal event verbatim on the GFS. At any rate all subject to change as the guidance gets recon data. Definitely something to watch at this latitude.

Couple quick points: 1. Looking at the radar loop and IR, it seems pretty clear that Elsa’s convective burst overnight did a lot to help develop an inner core. Critically, it’s not complete, which means any organizational progress we’re seeing now is fragile, so we need to see what happens today. That said, what we see so far IMO increases the odds of survival in the eastern Caribbean. 2. The guidance, despite having a large spread, hasn’t really shifted a lot. Of course, there are wobbles here and there but the general evolution hasn’t fundamentally changed. Folks in Florida and the SE coast shouldn’t be waiting for the guidance to have consensus to start preparing. 3. Recon has taken off and is en route. A lot of flights are planned and both low level recon and the high altitude environmental sampling will be huge for intensity and track forecasting. I wouldn’t get caught up in the guidance really until it has had time to initialize on actual observational data. The presentation overall this morning is significantly better than it was 12 hours ago. The only thing slowing this down right now, is the practically supersonic speed lol.

To amplify the point ^

Excellent discussion tonight. Still a ton of uncertainty with this. Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 The convective structure with Elsa tonight appears to be somewhat better organized than earlier, with a bursting type pattern of cold -75 to -80 C cloud top temperatures just to the northeast of the estimated center. However, a SSMIS microwave pass at 2130 UTC revealed that, underneath the cirrus, the deeper convection is still struggling to rotate up-shear as the system moves quickly to the west-northwest. Despite that fact, an ASCAT-A pass clipped the northeastern edge of Elsa and showed several wind retrievals of 44-46 kt. In addition, the most recent subjective Dvorak satellite classification from TAFB was T3.0/45 kt. In support of these data, the current estimated intensity was raised to 45 kt for this advisory. Elsa continues to move quickly to the west-northwest at 290/23 kt. A continued rapid motion to the west-northwest is expected for the next 36 hours as the storm remains steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north, and the guidance has trended a bit faster once again tonight. Thereafter, Elsa will reach the western extent of this ridge which will be eroded by a strong mid-latitude trough centered off the eastern US. Once again, the guidance spread increases greatly by this time, with the GFS/UKMET on the slow and left side of the guidance envelope, the ECMWF and its ensembles on the fast and right side, and the Canadian roughly in the middle. Interestingly, the latest GFS ensembles show some bifurcation within the larger guidance envelope, with the strongest members further south and west. The latest NHC track forecast is close to the previous track early on but somewhat faster, and in the latter period was nudged just slightly eastward towards the TVCN consensus. However, the track forecast in the latter time period remains low confidence. The intensity forecast with Elsa also continues to be challenging this evening. While the GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicates that the current 200-850-hPa vertical wind shear is only 5-10 kt, the strong east-southeasterly low-level flow Elsa is embedded in is resulting in stronger 15-20 kt of west-northwesterly mid-level shear. This mid-level shear has thus far prevented deep convection from wrapping around the circulation and helping to align the low- and mid-level vortex like the GFS/HWRF models have been forecasting over the past day. Despite this convective structure, the fast east-southeasterly low-level flow will likely continue to enhance the winds on the north side of the circulation. For this reason, the intensity forecast still shows intensification in the short term to 55 kt. However, additional intensification beyond that will likely require a better vertically aligned vortex. This structure may be difficult to achieve as moderate mid-level shear continues, counter to the motion vector of the storm. After 48 hours, the intensity forecast shows slight weakening given the possibility of land interaction over the Greater Antilles. The latest intensity forecast continues remain on the conservative side relative to the guidance, especially the HWRF/HMON regional hurricane models, and is also low confidence. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin early Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, and are possible over portions of southern Hispaniola on Saturday, and are also possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico on Friday and southern Hispaniola by early Saturday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 11.8N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 12.8N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 14.5N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 16.2N 69.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 17.7N 73.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 19.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 23.9N 81.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 28.2N 83.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown

It looks quite good tonight on IR. It needs to keep the deep convection going for like 12-24 hours though to really allow for an inner core to develop. We see plenty of systems look good overnight just to have the convective trend collapse after losing the diurnal assist. Heck of a start tonight though with those hot towers.

Wow. Looks like tropical…

Just ripping here. Love it.

Even better look now. Can’t wait for recon to start running because IR can definitely be deceiving. Great convective burst regardless tonight.

Absolutely pouring right now.