WxWatcher007

Impressive event in CT, certainly aided by the recent rainfall.

Seeing flash flood reports from Fairfield County. Probably need a warning up there.

Good luck to everyone up there today. Hope you get smoked.

Glad everyone is ok

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1113 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southeastern St. Marys County in southern Maryland... * Until 215 AM EDT. * At 1113 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area within 1 hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Lexington Park... Piney Point... Tall Timbers... Saint Marys City... Saint Marys River... Saint Inigoes Creek... Saint George Island... Saint Inigoes... Park Hall... Drayden... Dameron...

Predecessor Rain Event In simple terms these are significant rain events to the north or northwest of a tropical system—one that’s usually recurving. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1031 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern St. Marys County in southern Maryland... * Until 1100 PM EDT. * At 1031 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Saint Inigoes Creek, moving northwest at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Saint George Island around 1035 PM EDT. Saint Marys River and Saint Marys City around 1040 PM EDT. Lexington Park, Piney Point and Tall Timbers around 1045 PM EDT. White Point Beach around 1055 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Point Lookout, Dameron, Great Mills, Redgate, Valley Lee, Drayden, Scotland, Saint Inigoes, Park Hall and Callaway.

Tornado warning south of VA Beach.

Don’t mind me I’m just throwing buns in the water for the weenies. Do tweets not show up on the site anymore?

Maximum sustained winds up to 50 at 5pm

or it could be like most Hollywood movies and have a horribly boring and annoying end?

Tropical

https://twitter.com/nwscpc/status/1413180073763508225?s=21

Totally agree with the idea that the setup is favorable out there.

Would love to get a Cape cane chase in someday. Big wind blizzard would be good too but those are tough to come by it seems

Elsa is produced TS conditions along the coast in every state so far, so I don't see a reason why it wouldn't in the Mid-Atlantic. Rainfall is always tricky with these when you're on the edge of a tropical system, but the coastal sections should cash in. HWRF is the best case scenario for those inland that want rain.

DON'T ENCOURAGE HIM

Don't disagree with any of that. Been a while since we've gotten a cane up here. An active peak gives us the best odds and I think the peak will be active again this year. If Elsa hits right we could see some flooding issues in CT due to the wet period we've seen, but other than that I'm not expecting anything particularly noteworthy here.

Ray is big dog or bust. You know this lol. Tropical quiets down after this but there's a robust signal for a big peak starting in August IMO. Steering pattern TBD.