WxWatcher007

If I get time maybe I’ll do a post on track guidance. In the meantime, bookmark this thread:

97L this morning

No rest for the weary, as the end of June looks more reminiscent of mid August with 97L on track to become our fifth named storm of the season. With four already named, 2021 is in rarefied air with regard to the pace of TC genesis. Although the NHC provides 60% two day odds, the trend over the last 24 hours suggests that 97L may already be on its way to TD status. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 97L has a few things in its favor that 95L, the other once vigorous wave to its west, did not. First, it is developing further south, in a much more favorable environment with regard to instability and moisture. As you can see, it is south enough to stay (mostly) away from the influence of the SAL, which isn't terribly strong to begin with relative to what we've seen in past years at this time. That said, the northern envelope of the wave borders the drier environment and as a result things are a little less convectively active on the northern side (though still fairly robust as you'll see below). The second thing is the lack of wind shear. This has allowed for gradual convective organization. The path ahead toward the Lesser Antilles looks pretty clear. In fact, it's quite amazing that we don't see more TUTT influence but that's probably too deep a dive to go into right now. Now, all that said, look at the potential environment ahead. As Windspeed noted yesterday, TC genesis is one thing, it's another thing getting through the Caribbean "Graveyard" this time of year. Trades are strong in the Caribbean this time of year and that's a significant factor in why some of the guidance although bullish in the short term, are not as bullish once 97L reaches the Caribbean. There's also the potential for land interaction, but that's for another post. Overall, the environment in this part of the MDR is unusually conducive for development, and aided by a gradually warming SST environment to the west, low wind shear, and a potential CCKW to enhance convection, 97L is likely to develop over the next few days if current trends hold. From there, we will see if there's a path for survival in the Caribbean and potential long range threat to the US in the next 7--10 days.

Good luck out there today. I'm thinking of getting up into MA later but hopefully things hold together so I don't have to go far lol.

At this point, I think it’s less of a question whether 97L develops, it’s whether it can survive the graveyard. This’ll be another TC genesis miss by the Euro and ensembles at short range IMO. 97L still needs more organized convection.

Get ready for E. 97L looks like it’s trying to get it going.

Just catching up. Nice disco, @weatherwiz. Tomorrow looks active. Did you see some of the 3km NAM DCAPE numbers around here? The BOX discussion was pretty good, albeit short. Potential for a higher end day if things line up. I would not be surprised at all to see the ENH pushed a little further south into northern CT. Let's see what the landscape looks like tomorrow...

Nice storms out here. I caught some decent wind too earlier.

Nice. Looks like I’ll fall short of 100 unless I get another late spike.

Euro meanwhile, is nowhere near the GFS depiction. Model battle underway.

Nice. My station is up to 98.5.

Looks like HFD got a 98 in last hour.

We’re cooking down here lol I’m 97.8 right now with a high of 98.1 east of the river.

Ran behind HFD yesterday, slightly ahead today.

Nearly a 3 degree temp spike here at home in the last 30 minutes. Pretty sure I set a personal record for noon temp.

The basin is active. Both 95L and 97L have a chance to develop, though I think 97L might have the better long range odds at this point. The steering pattern would suggest at least at this point some type of close approach to the US by one or both waves, but obviously a long way out.

At least things aren't boring. Big heat today, slight risk tomorrow, and the tropics are unusually active, especially in the MDR. We followed up a landfalling TS yesterday with a new Invest today, 97L. Overall environment favors some type of US "close" approach, though you take that with a grain of salt at this range.

Low of 76.9 and high so far of 90.6. Currently sitting at 89.0/78 on the VP2.

Slight risk for most of New England for Wednesday.

Pretty nice radar presentation over central GA as convection fires up. https://i.imgur.com/a3ezYPZ.gifv

As long as you’re enjoying it my friend. I like getting long walks or some exercise on the hot days and making the exercise completely useless with ice cream afterward lol.

High of 94.1 which is a little disappointing but the dews were impressive. It actually felt pretty good breaking a sweat outside exercising this evening.

HFD cookin’ at 96/68. I’m actually challenging my daytime high as the dews drop a bit.