WxWatcher007

That low off SC actually looks decent tonight.

I think it was about 36 hours ago but just count me as last.

Normally, it'd be a bit early to start a thread, but given the consensus for TC genesis on the guidance and potential flooding hazard to parts of the Gulf Coast, I think it's worth starting a thread. This is something we've been watching since early in the month, with consistent signals for a window of development in the western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche (BoC) finally focusing on a trough of low pressure that should spawn something in the next few days. Both intensity and track are TBD, but if this follows climo we would end up with a fairly large and disorganized system with the potential to bring significant rainfall to parts of the Gulf. While the Gulf is warm and the concave nature of the BoC favors development, there is a lot of shear over the region currently which will inhibit development for a while. Conditions are expected to become more conducive in the coming week. Just a final note: be wary of the spaghetti model guidance. It's not particularly helpful when we don't have a developed system (and even then...) so I'd focus on the GEFS and EPS with operational guidance second. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A trough of low pressure continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche. Slow development is possible over the next several days while the broad disturbance moves little, and a tropical depression could form in this area late in the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Blake

What was the third? Fay and Isaias I remember.

What’s the tiebreaker? Thank you for your work on this.

A sloppy system fits climo, so I’m not surprised the guidance has trended to a messier system. That said, there’s still a lot to figure out. BoC tends to be a good place for TC genesis so I’d expect at least a depression to form.

…and I post more about tropical than anyone else on AmWx lol.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of cloudiness and showers has developed over the Bay of Campeche and the adjacent land areas. Slow development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression could form in this area by the middle of next week. Due to the slow motion, regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Beven/Latto

Been talking about it for a long time, but now it looks like development will be focused in the BoC Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of cloudiness and showers has developed over the Bay of Campeche and the adjacent land areas. Slow development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression could form in this area by the middle of next week. Due to the slow motion, regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Beven/Latto

Tropical?

Unless we’re talking snow

Busier than ever, but all good stuff happening over here.

Where’s @Windspeed?

If we could all be so fortunate. Hope all is well over there. Somehow I don’t think a severe thunderstorm warning covers that kind of wind.

That’s nuts.

Sounding imby still looks good. We’re still looking at a fairly long lead time though. Would love to get a severe day on a weekend so I can chase

Temp dropped from 92 to 78

Skies just opened up here. Big downpour.

That storm I was looking at is now severe warned. Should have stayed there lol.

Looking north from Manchester about 20 minutes ago.

Day 5 of the heat wave in the books here. Having 5 straight days is impressive, especially this early in the season. Might not top this streak the rest of met summer. 91°

When I was in CO for my chase a few weeks ago, a siren went off right next to the car as a test. Pretty eerie to hear.