WxWatcher007

…if SW Haiti doesn’t do it first…

Not sure why I’m posting them since they’ve been terrible but here ya go

Euro took a step toward the GFS with a westward shift and brings a decent low up verbatim. Still a long way to go though.

Awfully disheveled appearance today as the outrageous forward motion takes a toll on Elsa. The most critical part of the forecast period is arriving and will answer what the down range potential is. Will Elsa pinball along the mountains of the Greater Antilles? The first test is SW Haiti later today…

Took forever, but the euro finally caught onto the track. Should be impacts up the coast but a lot is dependent on the next 24-36 hours and land interaction.

Fantastic discussion tonight. Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Elsa has weakened slightly, and that the flight-level and surface centers are not vertically aligned. The maximum 700-mb wind speed measured was 75 kt and the highest SFMR surface wind sampled was 61 kt in the northeastern quadrant. However, these data were collected outside of the strongest convection that was occurring just east of the flight track, so the intensity has only been lowered to 70 kt, which is supported by the slightly higher central pressure of 995 mb sampled by a dropsonde. The initial motion estimate now is 285/25 kt. There remains little significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest 00Z model guidance has become more convergent and now lies nearly on top of the previous advisory track. Over the last 48 h, the ECMWF model has steadily shifted Elsa's track westward by about 1 degree of longitude each model cycle, with the latest ECMWF forecast track now being located about 240 nmi west of its forecast track two days ago. As a result, less weight has been placed on the ECMWF solution for this advisory. However, even its latest solution no longer takes Elsa over the heart of Hispaniola. Elsa should continue to move generally west-northwestward for the next 48 h, accompanied by a slow but steady decrease in forward speed. By the time the hurricane nears southern Cuba, the forward speed should be less than 15 kt. Thereafter, Elsa should gradually turn northwestward and eventually northward through a developing weakness in the subtropical ridge This motion should take Elsa across Cuba and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the nearby Florida Peninsula on day 4, followed by a motion over the coastal regions of the southeastern United States on day 5. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the GFS, UKMET, and HWRF models, and the TVCA simple consensus model. Elsa's fast forward speed and recent entrainment of dry mid-level air into the western semicircle has eroded some of the inner-core convection, resulting in the aforementioned weakening. In fact, NOAA G-IV dropsondes launched around 2100 UTC northwest of Elsa indicated a significant dry-air layer between 400-500-hPa that may have been imported by moderate northwesterly mid-level shear. However, as the cyclone's forward speed steadily decreases, the low-, mid-, and upper-level circulations should become more vertically aligned, which should allow for at least some slight re-strengthening during the next 24 h or so. Possible interaction with the landmasses of Haiti, southeastern Cuba, and Jamaica is the primary reason for not showing a more robust intensity forecast given the very warm water beneath the hurricane and a very favorable upper-level wind flow regime. The latest GFS and UKMET models indicate that Elsa will be moving into the center of a 300-200-mb synoptic-scale anticyclone, which would produce enhanced outflow jets to the north and south of the cyclone, resulting in significant strengthening. If Elsa ends up 'threading-the-needle' between Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba, then subsequent intensity forecasts may have to be increased similar to the much stronger HWRF model. For now, the official NHC intensity forecast maintains continuity with the previous advisory, and shows only slight re-strengthening due to possible interaction with land. It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic beginning Saturday and in Jamaica beginning Sunday. 2. The outer rain bands from Elsa will impact Puerto Rico by late tonight, with widespread heavy rain moving into southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides are possible. Through early next week, heavy rain is expected to impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba resulting in significant flooding with mudslides possible in Cuba. 3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday. 4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.8N 66.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 16.1N 69.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.0N 76.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.5N 78.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0000Z 23.7N 81.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/0000Z 27.7N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 32.4N 80.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart/Papin

Wanted to make sure I got to this. I’m really simplifying it but basically the deep convection/cold cloud tops near the center are a sign that a tropical system is capable of intensifying. Think of the dynamics already at play in the center of a tropical system. When the air rises in convection, it translates to lower pressure and when you get these areas of tremendous lift near the center, it can allow for organization of an inner core which makes more efficient use of the mechanisms that create hurricanes. Importantly, it takes time for the “chain reaction” to become self sustaining. That’s again a huge oversimplification, but it’s the general idea.

Center sonde Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 0:01ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 4Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 3rd day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 14.4N 65.1W Location: 284 statute miles (458 km) to the SSE (167°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.). Marsden Square: 043 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -13m (-43 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 999mb (29.50 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 26.0°C (79°F) 205° (from the SSW) 23 knots (26 mph) 925mb 675m (2,215 ft) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 22.2°C (72°F) 225° (from the SW) 21 knots (24 mph) 850mb 1,413m (4,636 ft) 20.0°C (68.0°F) 19.1°C (66°F) 260° (from the W) 12 knots (14 mph) 700mb Information Unavailable Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 23:45Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 14.46N 65.16W - Time: 23:45:16Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 14.40N 65.09W - Time: 23:49:48Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 210° (from the SSW) - Wind Speed: 27 knots (31 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 240° (from the WSW) - Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 708mb to 998mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 154 gpm - 4 gpm (505 geo. feet - 13 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 205° (from the SSW) - Wind Speed: 26 knots (30 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404

8pm update 85mph 995mb Recon found 996.3 mb extrapolated recently

Enjoy your tropical lol

Recon descending into hurricane now. IR presentation had degraded a bit but microwave imagery is mixed on the current organization of the inner core.

Really happy to see that we have high altitude recon out there right now sampling the environment ahead and around the hurricane. That'll be important for the guidance even as today it seems that the guidance has narrowed a bit. Low level recon flight is en route and should be there shortly.

Just created one. Not all of your posts are off topic IMO, so I hope you continue to provide your local perspective here too.

For banter.

We have a new VDM Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 18:44ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number & Year: 05 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 2Observation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 17:55:14ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 13.75N 62.40WB. Center Fix Location: 89 statute miles (143 km) to the WNW (297°) from Kingstown, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,070m (10,072ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.33 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 130° at 28kts (From the SE at 32mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 68kts (78.3mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the NE (54°) of center fix at 17:50:18ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 92° at 70kts (From the E at 80.6mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 69 nautical miles (79 statute miles) to the NNW (336°) of center fix at 17:31:45ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 57kts (65.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the ESE (120°) of center fix at 17:57:14ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 164° at 49kts (From the SSE at 56.4mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the SSE (147°) of center fix at 18:14:01ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,067m (10,062ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,039m (9,970ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical milesRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) which was observed 69 nautical miles (79 statute miles) to the NNW (336°) from the flight level center at 16:34:33Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... Sur press from dropsonde.

Yeah, I think a track that west is possible, but I think it's unlikely. Elsa is still going to feel the influence of the trough and seek the weakness along the ridge. I think land interaction is almost a lock, but it matters a lot how that happens. If it pinballs between the mountainous land masses of the Greater Antilles it'll be a shell of itself as it emerges into the Gulf. If it is able to avoid land until western Cuba it could be much stronger.

Best look yet I've seen on radar. Still an asymmetrical wind field to say the least, but it looks good on radar and IR and I don't see anything to really slow it down at the moment other than its own forward speed. Probably makes land interaction potential even more important to the eventual outcome early next week.

Extrapolated pressure down to 989.9 on the latest pass. Would love to see a center sonde. Edit: NHC going with 85 mph and 991 mb at 2pm.

Don't necessarily think this is representative of the current hurricane intensity, but it's interesting. Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 16:57ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 2Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 2nd day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 13.6N 61.8W Location: 49 statute miles (79 km) to the NW (308°) from Kingstown, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Marsden Square: 043 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -30m (-98 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 997mb (29.44 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 25.3°C (78°F) 65° (from the ENE) 77 knots (89 mph) 925mb 655m (2,149 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 21.6°C (71°F) 90° (from the E) 100 knots (115 mph) 850mb 1,390m (4,560 ft) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 19.2°C (67°F) 115° (from the ESE) 77 knots (89 mph) 700mb 3,049m (10,003 ft) 12.4°C (54.3°F) 11.2°C (52°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 16:33Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 13.61N 61.79W - Time: 16:34:08Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 13.65N 61.89W - Time: 16:39:25Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 80° (from the E) - Wind Speed: 97 knots (112 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 110° (from the ESE) - Wind Speed: 76 knots (87 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 705mb to 995mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 161 gpm - 11 gpm (528 geo. feet - 36 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 75° (from the ENE) - Wind Speed: 92 knots (106 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30406

There's the hurricane. Recon finally got a good pass. 991.6 mb extrapolated Unflagged 69, 70, 71kt SFMR

It's hard to ignore how big a departure that is from prior runs, but all these operational runs aren't worth much to me yet without additional recon data. I think ensembles still lead the way here in developing a sense of the envelope of possibilities. I'd probably perk up a touch if the HWRF backed way off since it is the best intensity guidance by far, but even then, there's a lot of information still to be gathered by recon regarding Elsa's organization. Edit: Latest recon mission is beginning.

I hear ya, and I think that's true generally, but the obs down in the islands so far have been impressive with sustained hurricane force winds in Barbados and a gust to 86 mph. It's a small core so most miss that, but this one seems to be the real deal with ground truth. There's also that old rule of thumb I've heard before that it's sometimes worse to be hit by an intensifying TS than a weakening hurricane.

Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Elsa has become better organized, and radar data from Barbados and Martinique have shown attempts at eye formation. The formative northern eyewall passed over Barbados near 11-12Z, and hurricane-force winds were reported there at that time. The initial intensity is set at 65 kt based on those data. It should be noted that reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that the circulation is not well-developed at 700 mb, possible due to the rapid forward speed. The initial motion is 290/25. There is little change to the forecast track or the forecast guidance since the last advisory. The guidance is in good agreement on a rapid west-northwestward notion to near the south coast of the Dominican Republic by 36 hr. After that, the general consensus is that Elsa should turn northward by 96 h through a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-latitude trough. However, the guidance is quite divergent around this consensus, with possible tracks ranging from a west-northwestward motion through the Yucatan Channel or western Cuba to a northward motion through the Bahamas. Thus, the latter portion of the track forecast remains low confidence. The intensity forecast calls for a little more strengthening during the next 36 h as Elsa moves through an environment of light westerly shear. After that, land interaction, along with less favorable upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico, is likely to cause weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast shows major adjustments from the previous forecasts based primarily on the initial intensity. It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in other portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in Haiti on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and in Jamaica. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba this weekend and early next week, with impacts also possible in the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 13.4N 61.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.6N 64.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 16.3N 69.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.8N 73.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 20.7N 78.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1200Z 30.6N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

It’s moving at a record pace for that part of the basin at that intensity. Practically supersonic.