WxWatcher007

The Swiss?

Funny how quiet it is knowing this one is likely staying OTS. After being a middling disappointment for so long, it's actually looking much better and resilient structurally. NHC forecasts it to be our first major of the season.

I'm in the central CT sucker hole, as usual

The melts will be epic in far southern CT if the rest of the state floods and they get a trace

Incredible.

I owe you. Will pay by the end of the week.

Can't really tell either. That's not a bad hook on radar for CT.

Was just about to post.

Right. Models aren't going to be able to pick out exact locations for something like this. It'll be interesting to see how close we get to maximizing potential. BOX just took their forecast up to 4-6" across much of central and eastern CT. The images out of parts of RI are pretty crazy right now.

That's very helpful, thanks. Looking at the HREF, it's quite aggressive across CT. Even the mean is impressive. It looks like the max is just south of HFD.

Was just thinking the same thing. Maybe an upper level low in the Gulf so not quite tropical (or enough time to become tropical)? Even the trough that kicks Earl OTS looks like it could become subtropical. The basin isn't dead that's for sure.

Chillin and grillin?

I'd be pretty surprised if there wasn't a good smoking in CT with this one. Still worry a little about SW CT, but I think they're good there too for a nice event.

Good to have you back. What an event that was.

We seal gaps and prepare for the flood. Bring it.

They never learn.

Folks up in far NE CT are getting smoked right now. FFW up for that area.

.21” so far

Heh, looks a little like the GFS. How much of this is that weak coastal low that pops?

Thanks. It looks like you can see it getting pulled back under the deeper convection on radar which is pretty cool. I wonder if it’s going to be able to sustain with shear nearby.

Looks like recon is having communication issues.

I think it’s more like a dimmer. We’re slowly turning it up. Conditions have been terrible in the tropical Atlantic, you can’t sugarcoat that. It has gotten somewhat better, however. Our first two September storms are likely to end up hurricanes. That’s not something that was possible at any point in August (especially early/mid month). I think @Floydbuster is right to an extent. Some are a little harsh in essentially trying to cancel the season. There’s still plenty of activity that happens on the other side of September 10, and much of it tends to be high end activity. Plenty of time for activity and numbers to come up. Especially in the western part of the basin.

We have radar out of PR and recon is in the air.

The structure of this system is leaps and bounds better than it was 24-48 hours ago. Recon finding higher FL winds and a continued center pressure drop on that latest pass. Euro and GFS gets this to a hurricane in a few days after it makes the right turn.

Recon finding Earl a bit more organized this afternoon, with an extrapolated pressure of 999.2mb. Looks like a tighter center as well that has moved under the convective burst. Not bad for a first pass.