WxWatcher007

It probably has more room to tick west, but you also have to factor in that these sometimes tick east immediately before landfall. Not sure if it happens as often in Atlantic Canada as it does down here in New England. Regardless, blending the ensembles gets a landfall between Cape Breton Island and the western tip of NL. Basically the NHC track. What's impressive to me is the intensity the ensembles bring to the region. If that verified, that'd be something.

Yep, we’re in business now.

These runs for Atlantic Canada are pretty wild lol There's a pretty solid consensus for a significant event up there at this range. The GFS has continued to tick west for now.

Not there yet in the NE quadrant.

Just a disaster. Can't even punch it in from the 9.

110mph/971mb at 11pm Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved significantly this evening. The eye has warmed and become more distinct and the surrounding ring of deep convection has cooled and is more symmetric. More recently, the eye has become smaller in size and this has also been observed by both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that have been sampling the storm this evening. The aircraft have reported that the eye has shrunk to around 10 n mi in diameter. The NOAA plane has measured a peak flight level wind of 104 kt at around 8000 ft, while the Air Force aircraft has reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 93 kt. Peak SFMR winds of 94-96 kt have also been found, and these data support increasing the initial intensity to 95 kt. The hurricane's outflow is somewhat restricted over the western portion of the circulation owing to some moderate southwesterly shear of the storm. Although this shear is not forecast to abate much, the intensity guidance indicates that warm water and a moist atmosphere should allow for continued intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours. Given the recent improvement in structure, the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for a slightly faster rate of strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and it is at the upper end of the intensity guidance. The official forecast shows Fiona becoming a major hurricane overnight, and brings the hurricane to category 4 status in a day or so. Eyewall replacement cycles are likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity in the 24-72 h time period. By day 4, the hurricane is forecast to interact with a strong mid-tropospheric trough, which will start the system's extratropical transition. The process is forecast to be complete by the end of the period, and Fiona is expected to remain a powerful extratropical cyclone through day 5. The initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. There track forecast philosophy again remains the same as the previous few forecast cycles. The hurricane should gradually turn north while moving around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. After 72 hours, Fiona is forecast to turn north-northeastward and accelerate as a strong mid-level trough nears the northeastern United States. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across parts of Puerto Rico and across northern and eastern Dominican Republic through tonight. These rainfall amounts will continue to produce life-threatening and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected over the Turks and Caicos, with tropical storm conditions over the southeastern Bahamas, beginning late tonight or early Tuesday. 3. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 20.6N 70.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 21.8N 71.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 23.3N 71.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 24.6N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 26.3N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 28.5N 69.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 31.1N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 39.8N 60.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 49.7N 58.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

He looks like Jameis Winston. Good lord.

Recon coming around for a NE to SW pass so we're going to find out shortly whether it's done enough to attain major status.

Can't worry about blowing a lead when you play the entire game like you don't belong on the field!

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 2:09ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303Storm Name: FionaStorm Number & Year: 07 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 17Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 1:31:30ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 20.42N 70.41WB. Center Fix Location: 86 statute miles (139 km) to the SSE (147°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,856m (9,370ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.71 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NAF. Eye Character: Open in the southG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 96kts (110.5mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the NNE (20°) of center fix at 1:28:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 89° at 86kts (From the E at 99.0mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the N (9°) of center fix at 1:27:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 71kts (81.7mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix at 1:35:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 223° at 69kts (From the SW at 79.4mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix at 1:35:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the E (84°) from the flight level center at 23:37:30Z

Well I just mean the system itself. It’s a phenomenal environment for TC intensification as modeled.

This looks legit for Atlantic Canada.

It’s coming.

Very close to our first major of the season. Very impressive period of intensification today.

EPS have been backing west the last three runs. We'll see if that continues over the next few days as Fiona intensifies. It looks like the strongest members are furthest west.

Good luck down there.

In a big way Probably worth another post soon. For all the talk of this period being quiet there's a lot going on. Peak finds a way.

It's a legit threat up there. Not sure how much further west it can adjust but 5 days out a lot can happen. Thinking the GFS is probably too far east and the Euro is a little too outrageous, but a significant one may be on the table for eastern NS and NF. Interesting that the stronger members are further west on the GEFS.

Targets your highlighted area for the season.

And sure enough, it took off on the 12z Euro.

It's not the GFS, but the 12z Euro does have more development of that wave in just a few days time.

The cane is probably fantasy, but there is a signal for TC genesis across guidance once Fiona moves out.

90mph/975mb at 2pm with a rapidly improving satellite appearance.

I know they have been burned, a lot, by waves this year, but the NHC should probably tag this one for tracking. It has a significant signal for TC genesis across guidance and the environment does look conducive for development once Fiona gets out of the way.

Looks like deep convection is firing and trying to wrap around the eye again.