WxWatcher007

It’s all or nothing with this crowd. July and August were dead. Historically dead. Fact. September has only produced two storms so far. That’s not a lot. Fact. Both eventually became systems that put us above normal ACE for the period. Fact. Would you rather have 5 middling tropical storms with two threatening the US or two hurricanes that churn OTS? You get to the same place objectively but it’s different subjectively. Also, late September and the first 2/3 of October are literally the downward slope of the climatological peak, with a secondary “peak” of hurricane activity in October. It’s not analogous to a snow weenie talking about March and certainly not April. I really don’t care if people crap on the season—it’s been an all-time underperformer thus far. The MDR has been a nearly unmitigated disaster. But we can do a lot better than analysis that thinly veils whether we like tropical activity or not. Over the next six weeks, climo shifts out of a continuously hostile tropical Atlantic toward the Western Atlantic, where stability and to a lesser extent wave breaking induced TUTTs are less of an issue. Yes, there are probably going to be issues too in this part of the basin, but I don’t think we’re barreling toward either hyperactive or dead. Most of the time we end up near the middle anyway.

Hurricane of yore

Yeah, I’m still at the stage of figuring out what’s necessary and what’s just nice to have.

I mean it’s up at 45N

It’s running out of time as a hurricane and didn’t quite meet its intensity potential, but this has been quite an impressive system at this latitude.

Sigh. I guess it makes sense.

Wait a minute, should I get a dehumidifier for my basement?

We're all Atlantic focused, but this deserves a thread. Getting bona fide tropical impacts in southern California is rare, but the potential is there as Category Two Hurricane Kay weakens as it skirts the Baja California coast before "recurving" out to sea. While there's a fair amount of consensus on the guidance about the track, the rate of decay and proximity to land are still unknown. Discuss.

Despite a lot of handwringing a week ago about my peak season forecast, I'm feeling quite good right now. We have two simultaneous canes in the Atlantic for the first time since 2020, one is expected to be a major which gets me to 1/4 on majors, and the basin continues to gradually get better--the tropical Atlantic still remains hostile on balance, however. Aside from our two hurricanes (and Earl is about to go off) we have multiple areas to watch. Invest 95L This one is most likely to develop, but it has a small window to become a named storm. It's heading toward cooler and more stable air. It'll be a race for a name, but the NHC has 70% odds of development. Atlantic Lemon This one hasn't come off Africa yet, but it'll be coming off further south into a somewhat conducive environment. The operational guidance is lukewarm on it, but the ensembles are a bit more bullish on it getting west. if it survives the trip across the tropical Atlantic it could be another player in the western Atlantic. Central Atlantic Trough The Euro has tried leading the way in showing part of a northeast trough breaking off after interacting with Earl and developing into a tropical or subtropical low. Whether this happens will impact what happens with the Atlantic Lemon and the wave after.

Yeah I just got home from work and at the first look of the recon data I said to myself this one is about ready to take off.

Going to be a lot of updates the next two days.

As slow as it’s been getting Earl to intensify, this has been an outstanding opportunity for recon to conduct research.

Two hurricanes in the basin, one of which is forecasted to become a cat 4, and it’s dead. Can’t make it up.

Tropical storm watches up to the US/Mexico border…on the west coast…

.45” on Monday 2.24” Today

For the first time since 2020, we have simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic. 2/2 so far. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 10 (2)Hurricanes: 6 (2)Major Hurricanes: 4 (0)

I’m late to it, but Earl is a hurricane based on recon data. Dropsonde and SFMR show it. Not made official yet by the NHC.

Euro goes from the least aggressive model to the most. The 12z run develops the next three waves coming off Africa, including our current orange.

Teach me your ways.

Recon is back out there and it looks like Earl has recovered. I will say, this one has been resilient in the face of some awful environmental conditions.

More tropical in San Diego than the entirety of the US Atlantic and Gulf coast.

Do you see any red flags for below normal precip this winter?