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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    It makes sense. At this point I think we want to see consistent improvement across guidance. Especially the ensembles and gfs/euro.
  2. WxWatcher007
    00z 06z 12z
  3. WxWatcher007
    Very good move on the GEFS. 00z 06z 12z
  4. WxWatcher007
    Agree, though I still look at ops as another ensemble member at this point.
  5. WxWatcher007
    This. A thousand times this. I still don’t care that much for the details. I just need to see fusion happen to know we’re in business. By 120 you know whether it’s game on or not looking at 500mb.
  6. WxWatcher007
    Seriously, get the energy to fuse at the right time and it’s a nuclear detonation right off the coast. Everyone cashes in.
  7. WxWatcher007
    Fusion happens just in time for a thermonuclear detonation right off the coast. It’s precarious, but beautiful.
  8. WxWatcher007
    Same on weathermodels
  9. WxWatcher007
    I’ll be watching too
  10. WxWatcher007
    Given what we’ve been through the last several years, there’s a part of me that feels the same. But it’s the kind of thing where imo if we can’t produce at least something significant in this setup, we just don’t have it (again) this season.
  11. WxWatcher007
    Zero concern seeing that depiction on 00z, particularly considering that 12z spurred a forum wide panic that we were losing this completely. Just loop the 12z yesterday, 00z last night, 12z this afternoon, and 00z tonight. Plenty of volatility. Nothing settled, nothing lost. @40/70 Benchmark I agree with your earlier assessment that these models are merely stepping their way toward a nuke of a low. The moving pieces cloud just how big the potential really is. If we can’t close here…
  12. WxWatcher007
    One bad run away from a state correctional facility?
  13. WxWatcher007
    Well, I knew this thread wouldn’t disappoint
  14. WxWatcher007
    Totally agree. This is as close to all or nothing as it gets imo.
  15. WxWatcher007
    clear as day on the means
  16. WxWatcher007
    Good luck folks. Hope you all get crushed.
  17. WxWatcher007
    You could kind of see that disconnect as early as 90h imo 00z 12z But it’s really evident 18 hours later 00z 12z My concern is that this disconnect shows up sooner rather than later so we need more immediate changes, but I agree with you that setting aside the surface depiction and just looking at 500, there’s not as much reason to be discouraged as you’d think.
  18. WxWatcher007
    Rather than the nuclear detonation that you got from 00z because of the northern and southern energy fusion You get a much more tame event that’s all dependent on the NS Would love to see how the EPS and its members handle this. It still seems very sensitive to me and I think @Heisy makes a good point about the amplitude of the NS energy being an important component to if we get anything close to a phase.
  19. WxWatcher007
    Middling evolution leading to a middling op result.
  20. WxWatcher007
    Maybe, but Ray’s point though, and you can see it clearly on the models, we know where this is headed long before the storm ejects out of the south. So we are kind of on a clock to figure out if a phase is happening and if so to what extent. This doesn’t strike me as a scenario where there’s a massive comeback inside 48h because by then the connection will have long been missed. We probably have until 18z Tuesday maybe 12z Wednesday.
  21. WxWatcher007
    I still do think we can probably afford a day or two of waffling, but it can’t be gigantic shifts away from any phase on ensembles. I’ve made peace with being on the razor’s edge for any kind of snow event this season. We're not gonna do easy slam dunk anything. That’s not who we are anymore.
  22. WxWatcher007
    I think it’s going to take another day or two to narrow the envelope of possibilities here given how sensitive the entire forecast is to the evolution of that Baja energy. Would like to at least see the GFS/Euro and their ensembles lean toward a phase even if it’s still a bit messy on the means. Rather than take it off the table. Even this GFS run doesn’t totally foreclose a phase.
  23. WxWatcher007
    Definitely possible lol. I'm not getting too high or low on this one. The surface depictions will flip flop until that Baja energy evolution gets settled.
  24. WxWatcher007
    Too much for tomorrow but maybe just enough for next week.
  25. WxWatcher007
    I was here. He wasn’t that crazy lol
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