WxWatcher007
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Everything posted by WxWatcher007
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You could kind of see that disconnect as early as 90h imo 00z 12z But it’s really evident 18 hours later 00z 12z My concern is that this disconnect shows up sooner rather than later so we need more immediate changes, but I agree with you that setting aside the surface depiction and just looking at 500, there’s not as much reason to be discouraged as you’d think.
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Rather than the nuclear detonation that you got from 00z because of the northern and southern energy fusion You get a much more tame event that’s all dependent on the NS Would love to see how the EPS and its members handle this. It still seems very sensitive to me and I think @Heisy makes a good point about the amplitude of the NS energy being an important component to if we get anything close to a phase.
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Middling evolution leading to a middling op result.
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Maybe, but Ray’s point though, and you can see it clearly on the models, we know where this is headed long before the storm ejects out of the south. So we are kind of on a clock to figure out if a phase is happening and if so to what extent. This doesn’t strike me as a scenario where there’s a massive comeback inside 48h because by then the connection will have long been missed. We probably have until 18z Tuesday maybe 12z Wednesday.
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I still do think we can probably afford a day or two of waffling, but it can’t be gigantic shifts away from any phase on ensembles. I’ve made peace with being on the razor’s edge for any kind of snow event this season. We're not gonna do easy slam dunk anything. That’s not who we are anymore.
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I think it’s going to take another day or two to narrow the envelope of possibilities here given how sensitive the entire forecast is to the evolution of that Baja energy. Would like to at least see the GFS/Euro and their ensembles lean toward a phase even if it’s still a bit messy on the means. Rather than take it off the table. Even this GFS run doesn’t totally foreclose a phase.
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Definitely possible lol. I'm not getting too high or low on this one. The surface depictions will flip flop until that Baja energy evolution gets settled.
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Too much for tomorrow but maybe just enough for next week.
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I was here. He wasn’t that crazy lol
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Ensembles are particularly encouraging
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It forms long before this but here are the early surface panels that matter to us. It’s a crushah
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Entirely there for the taking…hopefully they connect…
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Too lazy to run gifs, but it’s a really nice evolution even of the coast looks dicey verbatim. I mean obviously it’s one op and whatever but the main takeaway to me is that something exotic is legitimately on the table. It reminds me of a high end tropical development signal. Obviously apples and oranges but just look at 500mb and you see very high potential if everything comes together.
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I’d absolutely play with fire to have a shot at that.
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Plenty of potential on the euro.
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Indeed, but the question is whether those ingredients get added to the mixing bowl in the right proportions. 00z doesn’t really change my cautious optimism. Razor’s edge is what we do now so I’m not expecting consistently beautiful 500mb depictions.
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Been hovering at 30° here so much warmer, but we never got above freezing today. I do wonder how many days my area can string together. Same here. Always been a night owl.
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Sooner
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Amazing how we can go from brawling to kumbaya in the span of a couple hours.
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We should have more fun around here. Somewhere I still have the epic euro run from Feb 2013 and a handful of tropical nukes.
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True. I’d rather be looking at this though at range than cold/dry, and the general signal for high end potential has remained for the better part of a week now so that’s a reason to be slightly more optimistic that a storm is a real possibility.
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What in the hell is going on here?
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It’s one of those situations around here where I think for most even some accumulating LES streamer or NS clipper that pops and produces a light event would revive some hope for the season and satiate snow starved weenies until the useless block relaxes some.
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At the risk of being admonished for not being positive enough, I’m kidding, for the record. We just need to get as many swings as possible. If we completely whiff, which I still doubt we will, it is what it is. By whiff I mean no region wide warning level event.
