WxWatcher007

For New England, this one looks gone for now for a direct strike. The only "hope" would be what the 00z Euro showed and some sort of regeneration in the long range as the ridge rolls east. Or something like the EPS this hits the Carolina coast first but continues to be dragged northward with a more robust ECONUS cutoff. Even under that scenario, idk if we see a real EC runner and obviously the further inland the weaker it becomes. Though that would probably create a big rain setup. This is absolutely a legit threat for the southeast though. Fujiwhara is rare in the Atlantic for a reason, and even though Humberto is likely to become a major you look at 94L this morning and that's not a system that's just going to get absorbed. It may very well get going quickly once it can develop a LLC on the other side of Hispaniola.

No surprise but officially expected to become our next major now. Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 24 2025 The cloud pattern of Humberto has changed little in organization over the past several hours. Some rudimentary convective banding features are evident but the cold cloud tops are rather fragmented at this time. Upper-level outflow is being restricted over the western portion of the circulation, at least partially due to the outflow from disturbance 94L located near Puerto Rico. The current intensity estimate is set at 40 kt in agreement with a recently received scatterometer pass. The storm center is not yet very well-defined so the initial motion is a rather uncertain 300/10 kt. Over the next few days, Humberto should be steered generally west-northwestward to northwestward on the southwestern side of a subtropical mid-level high pressure area. The steering scenario for the tropical cyclone will likely become more complicated in 2-3 days due to the interaction with the developing system 94L to the west. The official forecast track is quite similar to the previous one, and roughly in the middle of the guidance. However, due to the likely complications in the evolution of the steering flow, there is lower than normal confidence in this track forecast. Global models suggest that there will be some relaxation in westerly vertical wind shear over Humberto in the coming days. This, along with very warm ocean waters and a moist mid-level air mass, should lead to strengthening. The system will probably become a hurricane in a couple of days, and then strengthen into a major hurricane. The official intensity forecast is in reasonable agreement with the simple and corrected model consensus, including the latest FSU Superensemble forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 20.7N 55.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 21.4N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 21.9N 57.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 22.4N 57.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 22.9N 58.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 23.4N 60.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 24.0N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 26.3N 66.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 30.1N 68.9W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch/Blake

What was 12z and 18z?

More of the same in the 2020s? No thank you.

Still an OTS look verbatim.

Euro is showing a deep tropical feed through the region with the cutoff trough in the southeast and future Imelda moving north out of the Bahamas.

Not surprising that models are flip flopping all over the place. GFS after losing 94L for a while now develops it in the 18z run. Given how robust 94L has looked, I've always sold the idea that it wouldn't develop, but let's see how it handles interacting with the mountains of Hispaniola. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (3) Hurricanes: 6 (1) Major Hurricanes: 3 (1) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto

Yeah there's one piece that seemingly wants to be in place, but unless the ridge is rolling over into SE Canada it's going to be hard to block an escape if this tries heading our way. We'll see how much, if any, things change as we get recon/balloon data and see how Humberto affects things. Part of me is wondering if Humberto takes off intensity wise and gets poleward faster for its escape if that closes the door for a future Imelda escape. I mean the 12z Euro (we sell for now) does what it does because that ridge builds over the top and into SE Canada before Imelda can escape. I still think if anything this is a Carolinas threat or OTS but we have a long way to go.

Close to MH status by day 5. Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 500 PM AST Wed Sep 24 2025 Satellite data indicates that Invest 93L over the central tropical Atlantic has now developed into Tropical Storm Humberto. Visible satellite imagery shows that throughout the day, the low-level center has become well-defined, with persistent and organized deep convection mainly located over the eastern side of the system. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both data-T/2.5 35 kt. DPRINT and DMINT Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 31 to 35 kt. Using these data, the initial intensity is set to 35 kt. The system is estimated to be moving west-northwestward at 300/13 kt, but this is of low confidence since the center has only recently formed. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is anticipated through the next several days along the southwestern periphery of a mid-latitude ridge. Towards the end of the forecast period, an approaching trough moving offshore the east coast of the United States will erode the ridge and allow the system to turn more northward. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty with the forward speed and cross-track spread of the system. This is increasingly apparent beyond day 3 as there are complex steering components with timing differences in the global models, including the approaching trough and potential binary interaction with Invest 94L. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids given some of these uncertainties, and there is lower than normal confidence in the track forecast. The storm is within a favorable environment for strengthening with warm sea surface temperatures near 29C and moist mid-level RH values. The system will be dealing with some moderate westerly wind shear for the next day or so that will likely cause an asymmetric storm structure. EC and GFS SHIPS guidance depict the shear slightly weakening in the day 2 to 4 time frame, and with increasing divergence aloft, a slightly greater rate of strengthening is shown at that time. The latest NHC forecast follows these trends and lies near the consensus intensity aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 20.1N 54.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 20.9N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 21.6N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 22.0N 57.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 22.5N 58.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 22.9N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 23.6N 60.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 26.0N 64.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 29.1N 67.1W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly

That’s happened to me several times already. They’ll have names soon enough. Imelda could’ve been retired the first time around. Second time’s the charm?

I may be wrong, but I don’t recall the NHC delivering key messages for an undesignated or non-PTC system.

Might be declared at 5pm with that LLC tucking under the convection on IR.

That may be the only thing that saves the east coast…

Disagree. 93L is far enough east it would’ve always been caught in that weakness and shipped out. 94L is exactly the kind of system that could threaten the EC this year—weak and buried in the Bahamas before finding itself potentially captured by a cutoff or blocked by an over the top ridge. We should all be selling the ops but the ensembles have been clear this is something to watch for the east coast if not a bona fide threat, which I’m not ready to call yet. NOAA is taking it seriously—we’re already getting key messages and recon out there. Edit: usual caveats for New England—meh, this no chance here, don’t waste your time.

Although there’s not much in the way of low level center, there’s a pretty robust mid level reflection as evidenced by visible satellite and TJUA radar. Not sure I buy the 12z GFS evolution.

This one has a good shot of becoming our third consecutive major. It’s looking well on its way to being designated a TC in the next 24 hours.

Who needs AC when it’s **checks Davis** 70.0° outside?

Are you sure?

This is a pretty wild setup. Everything is on the table. I can't recall two invests being this close to one another.

This year has been the biggest test of my annual peak season forecast. We're a long way from grading and spiking any footballs, but I'm pleased with my call of a dead period like last year lasting until around 9/20, and activity being focused in the SW Atlantic. A huge part of my forecast can be verified by what happens in the next week or so.

Recon might start sampling the environment today per NHC. This is a really complicated setup with the two systems so close. 00z EPS

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94): A tropical wave over the northeastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and across the Dominican Republic beginning tonight. The system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic late this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development in a few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form when the disturbance is in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to perform a system survey this afternoon to gather data from the surrounding environment, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Good chance this becomes a TD later today or tonight. Despite westerly shear the organizational trend continues.

With a trough possibly in SE Canada at the time of closest approach no direct hit is definitely on the table.