WxWatcher007

50.7° At WxW1 and a balmy 38.8° here at WxW2. The color is moving quickly in the Adirondacks. It’ll be interesting to learn the SLK climo lol. Maybe @powderfreak and I will become upslope buddies?

I’ll take the over on no development after Gabby lol. You could see the tropical Atlantic being a dead zone again from a mile away—the real question is what happens when climo shifts to the Caribbean and homebrew regions. Those areas have been warmer with more instability and less shear all season. If their peak season is a bust, then we’ll be in bust territory.

Yeah it’s going to take a little time but this might very well take off once it has sufficiently organized. Could be some open ocean eye candy.

It is, but the convective trend has reversed with shear and dry air decreasing. This is why the models are once again getting bullish on organization and intensification this weekend.

Signs of life now.

Congrats central CT

I would’ve named yesterday before this one and that Mid-Atlantic low wasn’t even tropical lol. I guess they had to go with continuity once they declared it a depression.

I expected a long wait, and here we are. Expected to become a hurricane. Outside shot at MH. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (2) Hurricanes: 6 (0) Major Hurricanes: 3 (0) Fernand, Gabrielle

Yeah. Not sure how much time I’ll be spending up there long term, but so far it’s been a few days a month. Incredibly beautiful up there. It’s a whole different world with the small town vibe and much colder climo. I definitely don’t want snow late April though lol.

The whole hemisphere…that’s really where it gets crazy.

It def had some subtropical characteristics near “landfall” but I think it fell short. Either way, the NHC wasn’t going to designate that after hesitating on a couple bona fide TCs already this year.

Due to some family and professional changes, SLK is going to be WXW 2 for me for the foreseeable future. It’s different up there I’ll tell you that…

It’s curtains for anything in the tropical Atlantic developing out there and impacting the continental U.S. That ship has sailed. Best chance would now come from the homebrew regions…which as we saw last year can still produce monsters.

Even though we have two highlighted areas by the NHC, the basin is definitely starting to wake up. It’s weak right now, but there is a signal on guidance for possible development off the SE coast from a wave or disturbance that ejects out of the Caribbean early next week, and a signal late month for a possible CAG, which better fits climatology than what models were previously showing with a CAG mid-September. There are still headwinds with wavebreaking induced shear, but it seems to me that activity will gradually pick up as TC climo shifts west.

Nope, non-tropical. It’s still attached to a frontal boundary.

LWX is back up.

Tropical Storm gusts are being reported along the NJ and DE coast

It’s a really impressive radar presentation. Look at that banding on the northern and western sides.

It’s a very impressive radar presentation. It’s faux tropical but it’s legit.

Totally agree with Andy. The only real shot of continental US impacts at this point would come from homebrew off the coast/Gulf or from the Caribbean.

Pretty good radar depiction right now of the coastal low.

It’s over increasingly marginal SSTs and doesn’t have a lot of time before it’s either onshore or tucked into the coast. If that boundary weren’t so clear I’d say it has a solid chance of subtropical development, but I just think this one isn’t going to get there. I don’t think the NHC would pull the trigger on that. Not this year at least with them missing/slow to designate two TCs this season. If this were off of Wilmington, I think it’d be a different story given SSTs. It’s firing good convection, but you really want to see it over the center. On radar though the presentation is actually pretty nice with some spiral banding evident. Worth a casual eye in case my analysis is wrong lol.

It’s still clearly baroclinic—attached to a frontal boundary. You can see it clearly in the visible satellite. Same impacts as a TS, but just not tropical.

Yeah that's in the back of my mind, but I think the distinction here is the much larger moisture envelope and ability of this one to keep up convection. Environment looks pretty favorable for development/intensification in the subtropics too, which worked well with Fernand.

I don't want to get too ahead of my skis, but the EPS and GEFS have been gradually showing the basin opening back up between 92L, the wave behind it, and perhaps some subtropical/tropical development in the homebrew region.