WxWatcher007

I know the feeling. Except the part about retirement

Never believed in the Euro or GFS verbatim for this. There's still a lot to sort out. It obviously won't be tropical, but I still think this could fiddle with subtropical depending on where the original low wants to meander.

Hello, Jerry! This one has major potential if it can avoid shear. If this were August or early September, this would probably be a Caribbean cruiser given its latitude. But we're approaching mid-October, and that means a trough will carry this one out to sea after a close call with the islands. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (5) Hurricanes: 6 (3) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda (H), Jerry With Jerry forming and forecasted to become a hurricane, that would put me in a good range for H and potentially have me spot on for MH.

Not dumb at all. Weathernerds is also a great site where you can see the Google AI stuff.

Going to be a close call for the islands. Shear is a big wildcard as the NHC notes, but this has major potential if it can avoid that. Another big genesis bust for the Euro.

I’ll always love each of the seasons for what they are, but the last decade of winter has been horrific.

Wife got a great job opportunity out of the blue, but since it’s so far away it’s not something you can commute to, especially in winter. I’m still doing my thing in CT, but will be up here from time to time. It’s a pretty wild example of never knowing where life will take you. My wife never wanted to be outside of a city/suburb, and absolutely hates snow.

It seemed like the Euro was the most bearish with earlier TC genesis, and that appears to be wrong. 95L is organizing at a steady pace, and probably will be a TD tomorrow at this rate. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95): Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to become better organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or so while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there should continue to monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

It's so nice. Dinner by the lake with my wife tonight. Being in the middle of nowhere (or thereabouts) is definitely a different vibe lol. I was trying to get a simple work desk and chair today and...I'm still looking. It also feels like everyone is in bed by 9 but when it gets this dark and quiet outside what else can you do?

March 2026? Yeah, always nice but still, rough year. We’re at peak here at WXW2.

Yeah I think we’ll kind of see the signal ebb and flow the next few days. It’s still pretty far out.

I still think this has a subtropical chance but totally agree that there could be severe coastal impacts regardless of designation.

I think that might be more due to 95L creating an escape hatch a la Humberto. The low isn’t exceptionally strong and may be too amplified, (read Tip’s comments in the tropical thread) but the sprawling nature of it and pressure gradient will probably bring some nasty coastal impacts depending on track.

@weatherwiz

Yeah, I’ve been tracking quietly for a few days now for the hybrid aspect.

That signal has been there for a while too, it’s only become more pronounced across guidance this past weekend. Maybe a little hybrid/subtropical with some energy trying to eject out of the Gulf. Track/intensity TBD. Of course, I’m up at WXW2 for the next week if it does come

2013? lol In all seriousness though, might be primed for a hybrid in the coming week to ten days.

Signal for some sort of hybrid or subtropical system off the coast near mid month.

That’s by far the worst spot too given the OHC and reduction in shear. There’s too much shear for the lemon areas in the Gulf right now, but the tropical Atlantic wave is likely to develop given how convectively active it continues to be and the CAG could very well produce 1-2 TCs (more likely 1 imo).

That’s fascinating stuff

Beautiful day

I’m cool with that. Op would just need to change the title.

Thinking the tropical Atlantic wave could be thread worthy tomorrow. Signal for it continues to be robust.

Anyone know how to contact @Kevin W? His PMs are full.

Interesting. It was relatively cool up here with BDL only +.9. Needed AN the last 8 days of the month just to get there.