This isn’t a way that we get tropical up here, so we’re talking about low odds stuff to begin with. And Chantal aside it’s been hard to get TCG off the EC this year. So it’s worth a casual eye but happy hour is happy hour for a reason.
The boundary off the EC that has allowed the current lemon to develop doesn’t really go anywhere, and it opens the door for a secondary area of vorticity to develop and get trapped along the coast.
GFS and Euro have hinted at that potential the last few days but obviously nothing that strong.
He’s not wrong about the general steering potential. A US landfall pattern has been there much of the summer, just haven’t had the activity. Don’t need Webb to see it.
Once tropical waves start surviving the trek across the more stable tropical Atlantic and reach the SW Atlantic, there will be landfalls.
Yeah I think we’re far from a lock, but whenever I see a setup like this in the middle of summer it’s worth taking note. The moisture feed looks impressive.
Still think that’s a little too out there in terms of accuracy. The environment is marginally better, if that, but the background state is still pretty hostile.