WxWatcher007

Anthony sitting in the cruiser after a shoplifting collar still praying for any damage he can get

I love this

If I had to guess, it’d be expansive TS watches and a small hurricane watch zone. 34kt at the coast should be easy. Sustained 64kt will be hard, even at the Cape. Won’t be a cane by the time it gets to Maine. Watches up at 5pm Tropical Storm Watch US/Canada border to Provincetown, MA. Hurricane Watch Provincetown to Chatham, including Nantucket. Tropical Storm Watch west of Chatham to Point Judith including Block Island & Martha’s Vineyard.

Agree with you both. The NHC likes continuity and with a larger wind field they also assumed undersampling.

Very expansive 925mb wind field. If that mixes effectively it’s a pretty windy Saturday further west. Overall though pretty similar to 06z and east of that 00z jump. Model run—>Meh/excitement posts—>Quiet in between runs—>Rinse & repeat

It really has. I think it’s made all the more impressive that none of this has been related to a tropical system, like 2021 was.

1.36 so far. HRRR is active again this afternoon.

Good luck. Be safe.

Another .50” in the last ten minutes. Now that’s impressive. .96” total now.

And another .12” in three lol

.46 in 30 minutes

That’s insane.

Inches and inches of sediment. Yard as fertile as the Amazon River basin.

Channeling my inner TFizz 0.0” Couple raindrops Grass turning brown

Another classic miss coming here.

Probably going to pass to my north

More environmental recon than structural/in-storm recon lately from NOAA.

Rinse and repeat the last two pages for the next two days.

Saturate the soil so we can take down forests with our 25-35 mph gusts Saturday

Definitely will see watches for the Cape and Maine at some point today.

Pouring in western CT. Two FFWs already up.

Right. Looking objectively at the ensemble graphics I posted, the jump west yesterday was significant. Nobody could have taken one euro op run that was an outlier and immediately jump on board. Agree that this morphs into a compromise deal. That’s usually how these go. I’m thinking just west of Bangor when all is said and done, leaving a fairly close approach for the Cape.

My rule of thumb for tropical is beware the last minute drift east. Not even thinking of nor’easter climo here. Agree with that envelope of possibilities too. Still quite a bit of time to go with this one.

Like I said yesterday, we’re tracking ticks inside 48. Additional movement west on the models probably happens at this range, followed by a slight correction east late. That doesn’t mean the next 1-2 days it’s all ticks west then all of a sudden Friday the last runs are east, or that we go from a solution with the center very near the Cape swinging to the western edge of Nova Scotia Saturday morning. I’d advise the center followers to “smooth out” the op run/ens mean trends over multiple model suites, because tracking tropical and attaching some meaning to each cycle at this range risks losing the forest for the trees. Exact center placement will come…inside 48. While the center pass is not nearly as relevant for coastal areas of the Cape, Maine, and Nova Scotia—and those folks should be preparing if they haven’t started already—it’ll matter inland for areas back my way. Setting aside the op runs, just look at the ensemble shift. That’s significant.