WxWatcher007

Officially Beryl now

Definitely taking SHIPS more seriously now that we have a well defined center.

Almost certainly will have Beryl at 11pm. I do think it’s worth watching what the models do with the ridging next week. There may be a window to slide something northwest around the periphery of an Atlantic ridge.

Given the improving presentation this looks like a tropical storm and if this organization continues hurricane watches will certainly be warranted at 11pm.

@GaWx that area is definitely a spot that should be on alert next week. Yeah…

Really good microwave pass

A few reasons imo 1) the wave is situated pretty far south, and as a result it’s embedded in a much more moist environment 2) Although there is a significant amount of SAL, it has mostly passed the worst of it. This combined with favorable CCKW passage makes it easier for rising motion and convection across the basin. This is a key part in the anomalously favorable MDR pattern. 3) There isn’t enough shear and a northerly shear vector to impart the dry air into the system. As a result, the environment looks good to excellent for development and maybe even quick intensification eventually, but as you can also see from the images above, there are some potential challenges ahead too. The NHC telegraphing possible hurricane watches soon is a big deal.

Not directed at anyone—say this every year but this is the annual reminder to be cautious when looking at any of the spaghetti/hurricane models before there’s a true well-defined LLC. Errors can be particularly high and just propagate through a model forecast. Ensembles are the way to go for now.

MDR is really looking legit. 94L is heading toward the Bay of Campeche, 95L is poised to become our first true MDR system as early as this weekend, and there’s a pretty robust signal for the following wave to develop eventually. All after Alberto and 92L/93L being very close to getting classified near land. Even with 1 NS so far things are extremely active.

Judging by visible this morning, this does have a good shot of spinning up into a NS relatively quickly. Surviving the Caribbean, particularly if it can do it as a hurricane, would be highly impressive to me.

Agree with @Windspeed. This is an anomalously favorable environment for TC genesis, but there is a substantial difference between highly favorable for TC genesis and the kind of environment you need for a hurricane let alone a major. Even with the guidance being bullish, we really need to see what comes together within 95L itself and then analyze that against the environment and climo. I’m not saying it’s impossible—clearly it is this season—but it is far from even being likely right now IMO.

Phil has been busy tonight.

June 2024 Derecho Kev and @Torch Tiger called it Sunday.

What a wild night. What a wild week. I was damn sure going to be here for this one. Watched a big light show and some possible lowering as the storms got close and the watched Hartford’s lights get obscured by an absolute torrent of rain and brief wind. Not as strong as other locations, but legit.

Willimantic crushed per reports

I thought it was faster than the NAM to latch onto the northern CT potential today, but it really did end up a nowcast until those storms bowed in NY.

Holy That’s incredible

Great show. Wind was strongest early. It was shaking the car at one point. Tree tops swaying.

Tremendous light show to my west.

PDS severe warning in central PA The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Lackawanna County in northeastern Pennsylvania... Central Luzerne County in northeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 700 PM EDT. * At 617 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mountain Top, or 11 miles north of Hazleton, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Ashley, Bear Creek, Dorrance, Slocum, Preston, Sugar Notch, Nuangola, Warrior Run, Laurel Run, and Lehigh. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread wind damage across central and southern Luzerne. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!

The storms west are taking shape and have produced some wind reports.

Not sure—with any of these really. It’s all about the environment once they develop.

If it’s in the MDR, mog hard lol

Giga aggressive is a good way to put it, though I assume giga=uber for us olds I’m going to be skeptical of high end development with SAL and the graveyard lurking, but let’s see if this can organize in the next few days.