SPC shifted the enhanced risk area to the northwest and put our area in the slight risk Category.
SPC AC 151255
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
Northeast States...
Overall change from the 06Z outlook is minimal with concerns over
the amplitude of boundary-layer moistening depicted in latest
guidance.
A shortwave trough over Lake Superior will translate east into Maine
by early Saturday. Attendant mid-level speed max is progged to
amplify with 500-mb flow in excess of 50 kt overspreading much of NY
and northern New England by peak heating. Surface cyclone should
diurnally deepen as it reaches the NY/VT border area around 21Z.
Surface temperatures should warm through the 70s and low 80s south
of the cyclone, ahead of an impinging cold front. While low-level
moistening is underway, the bulk of guidance may be too aggressive
with depiction of warm-sector dew points in the low 60s.
Nevertheless, enlarged low-level hodographs should favor a few
supercells developing from central NY and spreading towards southern
VT/NH and western MA. Modest mid-level lapse rates will likely
curtail significant severe potential.